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#1
22nd December 2006, 04:47 PM
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Trainer/jockey combination system
Rule 1: Bet any horse which meets these two conditions: (a)The trainer has had more than 20 runners on the track over the last 12 months, showing a level stakes profit, and (b) the jockey has had more than 20 rides on the track over the last 12 months, showing a level stakes profit.
Rule 2: Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
The website http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/ comments: "Contrary to popular belief, strike rates are fairly meaningless on their own. A trainer or jockey may have a high strike rate at a particular track, but if the runners were mainly short-priced favourites we could say that they were expected to win in any case.
"Another trainer or jockey may have a low strike rate, but if those horses consisted largely of rank outsiders then we would not have expected them to win.
"In other words, for strike rates to be meaningful they need to be linked to prior expectation, and that expectation is reflected in the prices of the horses.
"Basically, if a trainer or jockey returns a level stakes profit at a particular track then their runners have been underestimated in the market, meaning that they have attracted a bigger price than their true chance demanded.
"However, we must beware of small samples, which can distort the picture completely, hence the provision for more than 20 results for both trainer and jockey individually (not necessarily as a team), over the last 12 months.
"If both have made level stakes profits at a certain venue with such large samples of runners, they must be of interest when they combine in the same race." 
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