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  #1  
Old 12th February 2007, 12:39 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Default Betting to The Median

These are the Median figures one may like to keep, as to where the majority of one's winners should come from based on ones known SR of the plan one is using.

The idea is to stop betting if it goes past the outs figure mentioned below & restart again after the plan has hit a winner.

This is done to help address the dredded run of outs issiue, that hits all punters at some time.

Most winners will be found within these parameters.
e.g. 30% SR , most winners will be found within 13 bets .
It is sugested that one stops betting if 14 outs are hit, then restart once a winner gets up.


Median run of outs based on ones known SR for the selection plan or criteria one is using...
SR----Run of outs
10%---35
15%---25
20%---20
25%---16
30%---13
35%---11
40%---10
45%---8
50%---7
60%---6
70%---4
80%---3
90%---2


Cheers.
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  #2  
Old 13th February 2007, 04:40 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
These are the Median figures one may like to keep, as to where the majority of one's winners should come from based on ones known SR of the plan one is using.

The idea is to stop betting if it goes past the outs figure mentioned below & restart again after the plan has hit a winner.

This is done to help address the dredded run of outs issiue, that hits all punters at some time.

Most winners will be found within these parameters.
e.g. 30% SR , most winners will be found within 13 bets .
It is sugested that one stops betting if 14 outs are hit, then restart once a winner gets up.


Median run of outs based on ones known SR for the selection plan or criteria one is using...
SR----Run of outs
50%---7


Cheers.


The median run of outs for a 50% strike rate is 0.5.

Not 7 as you allege.

My bet is that you haven't a clue what a median is, but you are ignorantly repeating that term in order to appear erudite.

If you can't come to grips with such a basic statistical concept then what credibility can you expect to achieve?
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  #3  
Old 13th February 2007, 08:49 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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So if we take what you say as correct JFC then we can expect no more than a losing streak of 1 if we have a 50% strike rate?

I ran a simulation with a strike rate of 50% and odds of even money and it says i can expact to get a run of 12 outs with a max winning streak of 11, so Bhagwan figure of 7 sounds good to me.
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  #4  
Old 13th February 2007, 09:24 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
So if we take what you say as correct JFC then we can expect no more than a losing streak of 1 if we have a 50% strike rate?

I ran a simulation with a strike rate of 50% and odds of even money and it says i can expact to get a run of 12 outs with a max winning streak of 11, so Bhagwan figure of 7 sounds good to me.


The magic word is median.

The maximum is irrelevant to a median.

To calculate a median you have to consider every single outcome.

You didn't disclose how many trials your simulation went through.

My simulator just gave me an LRO of 12 for 10,000 trials.

But ~5,000 trials had ZERO outs.

So the median should be pretty close to zero.
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  #5  
Old 13th February 2007, 09:32 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Everybody feel free to challenge my calculation.

Simply run 10 trials of a coin toss.

In each trial count the number of Tails before the 1st Head.

Record the results in a spreadsheet, and apply the median function.
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