Hi all,

Nice weather here in Brissy for the last day of the carnival. Its a tough program but we'll see what we can do.

Race 1 – I don’t mind Poiym at odds here. They’ve tried to bite off a bit more than they can chew the last couple, going into listed class. I don’t think she’s up to that. But back in this easier grade, I think she’s a good chance. The good draw might be a little worry, judging by the racing on Saturday, but we’ll see what happens. Aquareine is a nice horse too. I’m not sure what has happened her last few runs, I would’ve expected something better, but back in the easier class here I’ll give her another chance. I’ll put Sir Sensible in for 3rd, he can run on late if there is good speed on. He is a horse who has always had ability, he just needs to show it on a more consistent basis.

Race 2 – Don’t mind Danawana here. Pretty tough affair really, with no standout runners, but this bloke is a 1000m specialist and if he can get across easily enough from his alley, I think he is a nice chance at odds. Consider Yourself is obviously the danger after the top run last time in much tougher class. I just haven’t got him on top because he hasn’t won enough to justify the short odds they’ll be putting him up at. Top chance though. For 3rd, I’ll throw in Instructed. Can’t explain the first up run, he had a perfect run and just didn’t finish it off. But given that he is here today, I can only assume that there is nothing wrong and if that is the case, on class alone, he can figure here. The 19 alley is a concern though

Race 3 – I Like Pepperwood here. He comes back to the easier class here after a good performance in the Sires. The drop back to 1200m is a worry, but I think if he can hold a closer position in running from the good alley, he can sprint away from them and win well. Nice bonus having Rodd onboard too. Mosstang has ability and from the good alley shouldn’t be trapped deep and can finish it off if there is some speed on. Admiral Gherkin has won well his last 2 starts and although this is a step up, I have great respect for his trainer. Don’t discount him.

Race 4 – Slim Pickings here. After a freshen up I think he’ll be cherry ripe for this kind of race. It’s a pretty ordinary affair and if there is a little bit of speed on, I think he can finish over the top of them. Hope the odds in the paper ($15) stay too. Nexgen will no doubt fill a placing as he always seems to do. He has the ability to smash this lot, but doesn’t like winning, so he’ll probably loom up and then stop. I wouldn’t begrudge this bloke a win, he has always been consistent without winning much, but he’s just not a viable betting option. Friscos Vision for 3rd. Pretty consistent horse and if he can get a good run from the alley with some speed on, is a great chance to run home over the top of them. I’ve left him at 3rd because I’ve never been able to pick him on his right day

Race 5 – Raheeb. Has run great races behind Reigning to Win his last couple and without that horse engaged here, I think he can go mighty close. The outside alley is a concern however we can only hope that Gold Edition goes quickly enough to string them out and this bloke can slot in somewhere. Should get 10s with Gold Edition in the race, which is nice. Hollaback was unlucky last start, as has been highlighted by everyone who saw the run, so I’m not expecting fancy odds about her. She will be unders for what she has done so far, but I’ll stick her in on the assumption that she has good ability. Gold Edition for 3rd. She was a doubt at 1400m, so I can’t have her on top in a 1600m race, even against her own grade. She might just been too classy for the, but she’ll win without me. Top run on Saturday, but a quick backup after that run in the Straddy isn’t ideal for this race I believe.

Race 6 – I’m going with Diamond Deck here. The distance suits I think and she has been super consistent so far and if she holds the form, I think she can win. It’s a very even race so its difficult to be very confident, but I think at $6 or $7 she is a good bet. Kyros was a nice run last time, getting home well and if he repeats that run he is a top chance. He isn’t bred to get a mile, but 2yos can do it if they mature quicker than the opposition. I just hope for his sake that the inside is not off by this stage. If not, he can run well. Kick ‘n’ Chase is a nice horse in the making and even after being wide last time he chased gamely and only went down under a length. If he gets some cover here I think he is worth a look. Tough race, good luck with whatever you fancy.

Race 7 – Don’t mind Newport here. Drawn the inside and has been in good form lately around Sydney. Robinson getting down to 52 is a solid pointer, so given all that I believe the 12s on offer are pretty good. Mandela is the obvious danger. Hes the class horse who was just anchored by the weight last time. He should be cherry ripe for this race and from the good gate, won’t cover an inch of extra ground. Pentathon was a super run last time, flying home from the tail. If he repeats that effort, he is a massive chance. The big weight is a concern though, which is why I’ve left him out of the top 2. There are a few other nice chances, but you can’t have them all

Race 8 – Don’t mind Enrique here. Has won well at 1600m before and his runs lately have been great, in harder company. The drop back in grade here should see him run into the placings, if not first. Byrne should be able to find him a spot from the 6 and be able to navigate to the best part of the track in the straight. Nice way to finish the carnival I think. Legendary Man is a chance too, after some good recent runs. I’m prepared to forgive the last one because he is obviously better than that. Atapi for 3rd. He has obvious ability but I can never seem to get him on the right day. So given that I’ll just stick him in for a placing and be done with it.

Tough days racing. I like Pepperwood and Slim Pickings with Poiym a nice bet at odds.

Good luck with whatever you choose to bet on

Sven

Sorry Sven posted mine in a different thread I might even just move mine overe here

Race 1: one of them races to start off the day in my opinion Rash Promise was to disappointing to back after last start I even question the horse can get this trip to be honest, Ram's Dream looks a decent one paced Kiwi stayer and certainly seems to have enough to be right in the finish in this race meets in form Rum Dum a couple of kgs better for being beaten 1/2 a length 2 starts back and wasn't a bad run at WFA after that althought that isnot strong form, Aquarein drops in class here but she really hasn't been doing anything since the run fresh she does like the cut out of the track and goes well around this distance range, Phoenix Express is a place chance here he is a faily consistent runner and could sneak into the placings here. I like the 1st 2 I have mentioned in Ram's Dream and Aquarein and feel they both should be real good value to have a bit of a stab at and to be honest I amnot really interested in any of the short priced runners.

Race 2: Don't mind the form of Consider Yourself here but there won't be any great odds about him in this as the rest of the form doesn't look all that strong, I would like to include Alternate but it was beaten pointlessly last start maybe the couple of runs under it's belt and the drop back in distance might help also has a nice barrier and I like to follow Bowditch plus it's had a bit of a freshen heading into this. I might have a go at Alternate at the odds as I really don't see any value in Consider Yourself maybe I'll be wrong in which case I might have a little on both of them.

Race 3: I am a big fan of Pepperwood but the odds will not be there today infact he could be quite short in this event meaning if I bet I'll be looking for a possible e/w prospect, The barrier draw will help Mosstang and so will the addition of Boss, Topkapi Palace is another chance here Scriven back onboard might help aswell as he has ridden the horse a bit in the past. Hard race will sit down and look at the odds and see where I go with the 3 of them from there they do look to have the strongest formlines in the race anyway Pepperwood would be my choice at $5 or better but can't see that happening.

Race 4: I have always had an opinion of Slim Pickings and can see him really hit the line hard in this race and I do think this trip might suit him off a freshen up, Lesmatre has been in solid form this prep aswell of late and could easily figure in the finish in this race and I also thought that Charvicky has raced well without luck the last couple of races with a clear run here disregarding the record at the track she just might be able to get home well enough here to atleast place. I will certainly have something on Slim Pickings here the other i will want double figures to consider.

Race 5: Hard race this one I cannot see how Gold Edition will win over the mile infact i can't even believe she is racing in this to be honest, I am torn between a couple here Danleigh has to be a chance and even though I amnot a fan of O'Hara on the horse she does seem to get something out of it that others don't however, J'Adane was all but home last start and in my opinion got beaten by a very good horse this distance will suit her better I feel and she might prove very hard to get past in this event, The other that has to be included is Prince Leo he has been hitting the line well and looks as if the mile should suit. I like J'Adane as an e/w prospect here but the other 2 could pose value aswell if Gold Edition gets as short as it looks it could.

Race 6: I only really have 2 I am interested in here Diamond Deck and Kingda Ka both have been running well of late liked the was Diamond Deck got to the line last start and it is bred to love this trip just a matter of whether it is to soon for her, Kingda Ka was cruising on the line last start and seemed to have an awful lot to give going to the line. I actually feel this race is Kingda Ka's to lose and that only bad luck will spoil it however if Diamond Deck ends up around $7 then I would be saving on it aswell.

Race 7: Pentathon has been in fantastic form the run last start to win from where it did was enormous and despite the weight I can't see why he can't make it 2 wins in a row here he has never raced better IMO, Dangers well there are few Grand Zulu looks close to a win again, Mandella is a well deserved favourite getting nice weight relief from last start and has a geelong cup win at this trip aswell as a 2nd to Excellent in the NZ Derby at the distance, Ice Chariot the QLD Derby winner at the trip drops 5kgs on being beaten 2.5 lengths last start which probably brings him into calculations Sculptor and Gorgeous George are both tough Kiwi one pacers in this who will run this trip out no worries and have to be dangers aswell. Tough race one of the better betting races for the day I think I like Pentathon but he does have alot against him here Sculptor and Gorgeous George would be two I wouldn't be leaving out but good luck this is a hard race.

Race 8:horror of a race to finish the day on really Atapi looks close to a win but it isn't like it is the 1st time in his career things have looked that way only for him not to deliver, Hurrah had every conceivable chance last start and couldn't hold off Diamondsondinside and it has gotten in very well at the weights again, Enrique might enjoy the step up in distance but I don't think the cut out of the ground suits him at all and Legendary Man I am going to forgive one run as it was to bad to be true last start Tick By who is another who just might sneak in there somewhere, I could easily missed the winner in what I have said here nothing would shock me in this race. Legendary Man I will have one more go at should be good e/w odds after that will see how I am going at this point and see what looks good value.

Good Luck to everyone today looks a better betting day than stradbroke day was

Nice get Raw!

Great ride there by Joey Bowditch that guy is gold massive odds to say i am happy after that would be an understatement not a big bet on but $10 e/w i better than nothing there.

Thanks mate reall good start to the day

your on fire brotha!

keep it going.

Thanks mate couldn't back any of them so I boxed the 3 of them for $2 on the trifecta not a huge pick up but $160 is better than a kick in the guts

Not the best of rides on Slim Pickings should have been right there with them in the finish ohwell next race

Had a shot at Kingda Ka and Cent per Cent in the TJ