Looking at the France vs Argentina rugby World Cup match on Betfair.

France can currently be bet at $1.18 and Argentina layed at $7.60.

To win $15 by betting on France, the outlay/liability is $85.
To win $15 by laying Argentina, the liability is $99.
The draw bet/lay price is almost negligible ($44 bet, $48 lay)

To my way of thinking, if one wanted to back France it would be much better to do so than laying Argentina, even though the latter includes the draw.

Have I got it right?

Backing France at those odds is crazy as is laying argentina.

Did you know Agentina has won 4 of the last 5 matches. I know France is at home but I don't see it so 1 sided.

Good Luck.

Michael,

This is Parrondo's Paradox at work.
Sometimes it is better to backyour selection, other times it is better to lay the opposition.
Look at the liability vs profit and work out which is the better alternative.
By zig zagging depending on the liability, you can make a much better profit.

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Chrome Prince, thanks for that. I thought my maths might have been out of whack especially as both the bet and lay markets were about 100%.

I've looked at other situations- it seems the paradox is more pronounced when there is a short priced fave.

The footy match tonight between England and Israel seems to be another example of P's paradox?

England's bet price is $1.36
Israel's lay price is $15.00
The draw's lay price is $5.10.

To win $26 by backing the poms the liability is $74.
To win $26 by laying Israel for $6 and laying the draw for $20, then the liability for Israel is $64 ($10 better-off than backing the poms) and the liability for the draw is $76 (only $2 worse-off than backing the poms).

If my maths are correct, and someone wants to back the Poms, it would be better to lay both Israel and the draw?

Chrome, if you are reading this, (or anyone) is there any way to capitalise on such situations to obtain an arbitrage?

There is more of a bias in laying faves.

The discrepancy between backing the shorty or laying the "longy" is pronounced.

When you reduce your liability, you are actually manipulating the odds further in your favour.

Read up on the Ted White baseball theory

__________________
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Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg