Moonee Valley Sat. 27th.

My scattered thoughts:

r1 I'll take an exacta on Apple Lode, Kaphero and Centopha and a win bet on Kaphero who could lead all the way in this with a clean jump.

r2 A curly one. No pace in this so it might not suit Miss Marielle. Miss Tommo Hawk's run last start at Caulfield was a good one but along with Marielle, it's a back-marker. Potomac the on-pacer might do better. I'll just take the 3 of them for an exacta.

r3 Royal Assher should be odds-on and win [no bet]
r4 Interesting, but a stupid race for the punter [no bet]
r5 A mares race [15 of them!]. They take it in turns [no bet]
r6 A 3yr. old race with no pace. Barbaricus? Down under boy? Throw a dart. [no bet]

r7 Dracs Back ran a good race last start at Caulfield and is ready to win 5th up. Nice barrier but heaps of runners so I want some odds.

r8 Lots of thought and guessing required here as it will all depend on the running. Will Miss Finland get a position and be able to get out for a run at the 800m? Devil Moon is no Might and Power so I can't see her leading all the way. Leaders in this race usually slaughter themselves and end up near the tail of the field because there is no way this will be a sit and sprint!

El Segundo has the barrier, the jockey and came 2nd. last year so that's the best I can go on. Am going to have him with Efficient [blinkers!] to win and Zipping [can sit anywhere], Lad of the Manor, Haradasun and Miss Finland for a 2x5x6 tri. Devine Madonna will get too far back to win or place here I think.

r9 Sonic Quest [for a win] has been going ok and finished up close last start, with Orange County and Emerald Jack for an Exacta.

Post your thoughts, tips and have good one!

Beat me to it with the tread this week Crash. I haven't had much of a look as yet, just a quick skim.

Early thoughts...
R1 Apple Lode was very impressive last start when first up. Will be hard to beat. Interested in Cargo Cult. Resuming here for a new trainer and has a great first up record. Might be one at odds.

R2 Pretty even, Diva La Bella was unlucky last start although the form hasn't been overly strong from that race. Eco Friendly looks like it is progressing nicely. In the Rocket Douglas stable and with Newitt on borad, at $31 on TAB sportsbet could be worth a nibble. Also thought Miss Tomma Hawk was good last start.

R3 Royal Asscher sould win this, will be short though.

R4 What a race this is! My head tells me that Miss Andretti gets the sit here and goes past Goldie up the straight. But my heart tells me to back Gold Edition. She is as tough as they come and will be hard to MA to get past. I think at the odds though I will have a little bit on GE.

R5 Another mares race and no doubt a different winner. Your best bet with these mares races is to stick with one through out the spring and make sure you are on when it does win. I have been and will be with Blessed again.

R6 Tough race again. Kibbutz is coming along nicely, and is looking for further. I think there is one at double figure odds here which is worth the each way ticket, Thesandmancan was good at the night meeting at the Valley. Form from the race is super with Najib winning by 7 (admiteddly in a weak madien) and Morten Bay running a track record on Geelong Cup day winning by 5.

R7 Two I like here. Dracs Back looks like he is coming along nicely. Is just about time for him to win. The other is Reggie, has been racing well of late.

R8 So many chances here. I am beginning to really like Heradasun here, he will get a good run and it looks like a race for him to stand up. Devil Moon, you can't fault winning form. People may want to ignore the Turnbull but she won and won it well. Will get an easy time in front and if she is good enough she can win this. Efficient, have always loved this horse, and if you are one who is ignoring the Flemington form then he is in this up to his ears based on his previous run.

R9 Like Sonic Quest here, hoping he can make up for his last defeat.

R10 Yet another tough mares race. Didn't mind Goldfield Ashes but now scratched so I have no idea.

Good Luck

sorry guys have zero time for this, all i can say is that for the big one i am down to Haradasun, Devil Moon and Efficient

good luck!

Some good thoughts there Jeff.

The Cox is a weak one this year and that's why I've thrown in Lad of the Manor in my multiples. I'm suss about Zipping at WFA and might swap in Eskimo Queen into my multiples after another look at the form, as she has a good barrier and might run into the placings.

Punters keen on the fav. should remember MF rises 9kg. from last years effort [46kg for 6th from b4]. Efficient odds are getting a bit short for a horse that has had only 1 win in the last year.

I would not touch MF, not saying she can't win but I dont believe she is as brilliant as she was. She is not better than anything else in the field and her price is unders due to her reputation. I agree with what you say with Efficient, however he is only lightly raced and hasnt run in much that has suited in the past year. I think this is where he needs to stand up and silence the doubters.

I totally agreed on MF. I would not take out Zip totally. It has high chance in placing.

El - Good chance in this. I like him and he will be my best bet.
Lad - Will have him in placing
Nico - Good run behind Madonna but rised in weight. Regular jock and could be a big treat.
Maras - No way. Bad run in Turnbull!!!
Zip - Good track and distant record. Big treat. Disadvantage is on the barrieir and rised in weight.
Hara - Huge firm in odds. Might start favourite. Should be there.
Eff - Not that impressed with him. Take the risk of not putting him in the multiple.
WW - Big risk as rised in weight. no record at distance.
Magic - Good run behind PC. Big treat and rating is not bad as well.
Madonna - Afraid that it might get too back. Risk but will put in multiple.
MF - No due to barrier.
Devil - Good form but I think will not last leading in Cox plate. Too pressure.
Queen - No. Not impressed at all.

My tri - 1,3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,9,10/1,2,3,5,6,9,10 - 1/2 unit for 60. Taking risk. Higher risk higher return...

Race 1,
Interesting that alot of these arent really suited at the 1000m,,even less so here at the valley where its more like a 900m dash..
Kaphero has great gate speed and should lead this,,the swoopers like Apple Lodge, Cargo Cult, Stickpin might find it hard to catch him
,,,5's at the moment but the track worries me alittle,,if its a good dead i might have something on tomorrow,,
Monahan tweed worth throwing in the multis but the concussion plates worries me.,but a dead MV surface will be forgiving..

Race 3,
Royal Assher looks to speedy for them...great run last start ..cant have her at those odds but 2.50 maybe,,,

Race 4
A real non betting race this,,,Miss Anddretti 1st up at the 1200m might find it hard to catch a fit Goldie....
i can't split them...but if my life depended on it ,,Goldie jus cause shes a queenslander

Race 5.
I think the 14's around for Miss La Tar is excellent value,,,she's in great form and likes the track and distance,,
shes always seems to go around at good odds (prob her 15% win rate ) but her form suggests she can be very competitive in this..meets
Post thyme 4k's better at the weights..Hidden Strings even with the weight can run a very good race here ,,
Gauci although not my fav jockey (Cox last year) is out to prove himself here and will be desperate for a win..

Race 6
Very hard to split the top 4 ,,,i think Davcon as his breeding suggests he'll like the distance but i'm not super keen on him around this track,,
i'll just be playing around with the top in multis i think as they are just way to close ( throw in Kibutz aswell)....Marching should be closer in the run and at the $2 for the
place might be a better bet e/w.....i'll see what odds i get tomorrow..

Race 7,
Very keen on Red Lord,,,i'm prepared to forget his last run on "that Track" and go on his previous,,i think the Zabeel in his pedigree
will come through and the distance shouldnt worry him...the double figure odds around are very tempting..
Paccino is flying and if he gets a start i think hes in this up to his ears...i'll back both if they start..
Drac the obvious and Sentire and Jo the dangers..

Race 8,
Already have this race sorted...El Segundo 8s' / Haradason 6's and Zipping 21's and 34's ...
i think Devil Moon will lead with hara on her girth or if WW comes across Hara will just take the good posie 1 back 1 out..
Miss Finland sitting back on the inside hoping for a run..
El segundo will peel out with his customary sprint..
Zipping will be the outside of runners and will be coming late...
put Miss / Efficient / devil in your mulits..
El Segundo the best result for me,,,owes me for last year,,if he runs a nose 2nd i'll off myself..

Race 9,
Emerald Jack is flying and has been good to me,,he is coming back in distance but likes the track ,,Sonic Quest i think will be
suited by the oustide,,hes the improver and the big fellow just need room....i like the exacta here with these 2..
3,70 is nice value for Sonic Quest....


Best ... Miss La Tar . ElSegundo , Sonic Quest


Belmont
Grasspatch Girl
Rocky
Shariara

Marasco.

Marasco won't win

yes he will.