With the rain continuining to fall in Melbourne the track is getting wetter and wetter. I would say that we will be on atleast a slow track come Tuesday unless the weather takes a dramatic turn in the next 24-48 hours.

My biggest concern however is how the Flemington track will hold up for the future meetings. I am very much looking forward to Stakes Day, but my concern is that if the track is slow for Tuesday and gets cut up what will the consequences for Saturday (I am not too concerned about Thursday, Oaks is never a good day)? I am hoping the track isn't a disaster by the end of the week.

In saying that we may need to take into account the form when doing the form. On early thoughts there were a few I would be having a close look at, including Race 4 #3 Eskaw, Race 6 #3 Balcentra, Race 9 #13 Sanjuan.

In the Cup I like Master O'Rielly. Will get the trip and looks to have had the beat lead up, looks the one to beat.

Post your thoughts

Hi Jeff. I'll do the form on the other races Cup day when it's clear what the weather is doing. The new Flem. has great drainage but heading for a slow for sure. Rail out 2m.

I was very surprised how true the track ran on Sat. Lets hope it can stay half-decent. I had MO marked down as a certainty in the Cup, but now with a slow track looming I'm a bit worried about the weight impost after the CC.

I've had a really good look at the Cup form and for almost all of them it's terrible really except for MO and Duro Valley for this. Getting outside of the hype and coldly looking at form, the horse that has missed all the hype and stands out is Dolphin Joe.
Decent form this prep. [beat the Fuzz 3 starts ago at Flem.], light weight and ran a 2nd. over the cup distance in the slow at Sandown last prep. Sandown form is great form because it's a tough track and a big track. Has been looking for the 'slow' too .

I agree, I will be doing the form closer to the day. My concern with the track is the chance that the grass may not be completly settled in and having water in the track may cause it to cut up badly. I am hoping this is not the case.

I think Master O'Rielly will be hard to beat. I think he should go well on the slow track. Haven't looked at his form on wet tracks but being by O'rielly he should handle it.

I'd say another good day for the Bookies, but I'm going to try and get a bit off them!

r2 Bit of pace in this Mares race from leaders Miss Badoura and Tahnee Tango if Dunn can get her across from b19. Backmarkers Just Curious and Collodi [won this last year] with top Jocks will take advantage of the pace. Collodi?

r3 Southern Courage won this last year with 54kg but gets another 4kg this time. Satinspin (NZ) is my pick here who will come late at the 2 leaders in this. Ran a top 2nd at Benalla to Viz Vitae by a head over 2300m 2nd last start and is coming off an OK mid-placing in a G2 at Geelong last start. 5th up so will be spot on.

r4 Reshuffles e/w. Been waiting for this one in a Mares only race to suit so it gets it's chance here. Laura's Charm has had a horror draw for 1400m so that will help!

r5 / r6 Keeping away from these two 3yr. old races at this track. Save betting money for later or throw darts?

r7 The Cup. [looking like dead trk]
Caulfield Cup form is good form for this so I'm Sticking with 1st an 2nd place getters Master O'rielly and Duro Valley to win.
MO cops a 3kg penalty, up to 53.5kg. DV is at 51.5 and that's 7.5kg down on it's last start in a WFA to Sirmione [Old Bart's cup smokey].
Dolphin Joe, Purple Moon, Gallic, Princess Coup [2nd to Sirmione last start and down 5kg] and to stay a bit safer, Tungsten Strike [who has won over this distance first up after a 33wk. spell], into my Quin and Master O'rielly x the others for my tri.

r8 No pace in this so looking to Blitz'em Riley who has good Sandown form for this and a good barrier (5) and Flash Trick looks suited after a close up 4th here 2 starts ago after striking interference in the straight.

r9 It's not going to be dry enough for Testbury Jack here [it's my local horse]. Shadoways copped a bit of interference last time but didn't look the goods anyway. Typhoon Zed hit's a brick wall at 1100. Pencelaron goes like a rocket but the straight might not suit
Honalee ran a good race last time and the extra 100m will suit. The Fuzz ran a bottler last start and likes it here, so a bit on both of them and Pencelaron for a Quin. and a win bet on Honalee maybe.

r10 Lord Of The Dance should win but will be short but might get a surprise in this from a few here. Poor betting race really.

Best of Luck!

I've cut out r9 and r10 from my original post as they were from the wrong day!

So lets get this right now that I am sober :-)

r9 Snort goes well first up and has a win here up the straight. Very quick and at the right odds. Sanjuan the danger but could come from a few others too.

r10 El Pauji goes well here and cracked a 1.23.63 close up 3rd. to Vormista over 1410m on this track in the dead 3 starts ago in a G2

r2-manna miss

r3-like one at a price ACES HIGH

r4-pinsemtoit,eskaw

r5-volcada

r6-press the button

r8-molotov,moreton bay

r9-electric general,snort,something anything

r10-ela ya mou

Well I am still going and doing this working on a deaish type track if the drainage is as good as they say then it ight not even be that.

Race 2: A couple I don't mind here Tremezzo and Illinois Girl with possibly a slight leaning to the later, I like some of her form nice run behind Imposing Way a couple of starts2 ago followed by a nice win after that drawn gate 3 with McEvoy aboard on the minimum sounds pretty solid to me. After that I gave a bit of a chance to Just Scarlett but the other 2 i favor alot more.

Race 3: I like the 1st emergency here Cheifcomingfirst, he atleast looks like he could be taking a step forward opposed to alot of the rest of these, Satinspin my next pick gets in nicely here off a solid geelong cup run, Completion will probably start fav by default looks a nice horse but certainly not unbeatable.

Race 4: I like Casual Kiss here she has been in fantastic form and if she can get in and get some cover I really feel she can get over the top of them, after that I like the other 2 emergencies here Imposing Way and Mixxer can't see them both getting a run though.

Race 5: No Thanks shocking race

Race 6: Might sit this one out aswell slightly interested in Atlantic Gold e/w but I think i would have to of won early to take a shot there.

Race 7: Purple Moon is my main selection his 1st up run was great in the caulfield cup and they say he can take up a more prominent position with Oli on board (I don't have a good record with him) this guy has to be tough to beat, Maybe Better I am sticking with maybe for the last time I would like to see the track dead for him he has been trained for this and his run on the weekend wasn't terrible a good solid tempo would suit him to a tee in this I think, Eskimo Queen alot of people are off of her and there really isn't a big reason other than the missed run in the caulfiled cup her form before then was 2nd to none and I feel she'll give this one almighty shake tomorrow, Mahler he looks like he wants a real strong tempo in this I know he is a 3yo but he is a classy one and would probably be weighted out of the race next year, atleast at his age he still might have a bit of a dash about him he will be a real english grinder this time next year.

I have others I like but they are my main selections for the cup might through in Sirmione and Master O'Reilly for a Trifecta not sure yet might look for some more value there to something like Blutigeroo.

Race 8: Not interested here

Race 9: Cargo Cult is one i don't mind at e/w odds but I really haven't looked to hard at this race.

Race 10: Scenic Silver I like here but once again haven't looked to deep in the form here.

Good Luck guys think we are all going to need it hopefully i can pick something up to keep punting out the week with.

Cup,

Narrowed it down to 4 picks: Zipping, Blue Monday, Purple Moon, Princess Coup.

After having a bit of a look over the last couple of races this is my thoughts

Race 9: Snort has to be hard to beat flies fresh no weight drawn the outside where they will probably want to be and likes the cut out of the ground slightly, dangers are Terango races well without luck most of the time, Dismissal the old boy has some decent form right now and if Rubiton Raider is a chance at all which the market suggests then he has to be included in your thoughts & Cargo Cult has plenty of ability whether he might want another run or not.

Race 10: bad race to finish with Scenic Silver still sits near the top of my selections, Straddle could easily win this and Aztec Smytzer might enjoy being back at flemington this is a weak race.

Race 2 ,
Thought Just Curious a good e/w..the barrier is a concern but i like her this distance,,she just needs to find some cover ...
Race 3,
Vicello very impressive last start and drops weight,,,Satinspin in good form and Completion suited...
Race 4,
Lauras Charm is the class but has the horror alley,,,,i still like her around this track,,she just needs alittle luck..

MC
I'm already on MAster O,,On Jeune and Black Tom..
I think Purple Moon will race midfield with Master O sitting just behind him..he'll get the good drag into the race and be very hard to beat...
Zipping has been very impressive....loved his last run and will be peaking for this..will need luck though..
OAJ,,i really think the horse has missed a run..but the young trainer knows the horse better than me and if hes fit can really give this a shake..

Master O / Zipping / Purple Moon / OAJ /...rough place chances to Mahler ,Sirmione,

Race 8
Thought Flash Trick with the sting out a good roughie,,,Eclare Passion a good place chance

Race 9,
Cargo Cult,,has ability and heard hes flying...21's is nice value..

Went looking for value tomorrow,,,,usual very hard day,,

other state selections
Mackay, Mersey beat
Adelaide, Merlot Now , Allstar ,
Ascot, Naval Seal
Taree, igothelastone

Best Bets ... Master O and also like my selections interstate..