found a few systems on the the net this is one, anybody like to run it though there data bases

1. Last start winner
2. must have one by 2 lengths or more
3. if more than one, back the shortest price one.

Cheers

10,082 selections
2,194 winners
21.76% Strike Rate
$8,942.24 Return
-$1,139.76 Loss
11.30% loss on turnover

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hello Crackone, or anyone for that matter,

Just as an academic interest, I know it's not your system, but since you asked for it to be tested, you must have thought, that the 2 length margin had merit.

Why?
Why not 1.9 1.5 or .4 even?

I am not taking the p.. I am genuinely intetested, why do people think that in a game of chance, which horseracing still mainly is, two length makes a bigger difference in picking a future winner than any other margin?
After all the horse may have been running against future pet mince, while an other, winner by a short head, was up against M Diva?

If on the other hand, you did not think about it this way at all, forgive my musings.

Good luck

Hi lomaca tell you the truth didn't think about it until you said. As you say why not 1, 0.9.
I can only think , if it won so easy last time why not this time. ( I do now the answer )
Thanks for running it

Overall there's about a 5% LOT difference >2lengths <2 lengths winning margin favouring the greater margin.
That's without any other filters though.

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That's without any other filters though.

That is my point CP.
In isolation a win, place or margin is meaningless, yet it is the basis of many a system.
The answer to whether that system truly works, is, to run it under the actual race conditions, with all the other runners records included in the analisys.

I know it takes a lot of time to set up and run, but if one is dedicated to make money the hard way, as opposed to plain and easy nine to five, then it is a must!

Yes, I was just illustrating probably why people tend to opt for >2 lengths.
I agree, a rating is useless unless it is compared to the rest of the field.
What I mean is, a rating for a horse may not be as strong or as weak compared to current conditions, this is where a lot of ratings fall down badly.

Take TABONLINE for example, Lonhro would be rated 100 in a Group 1 or in an Open, yet the opposition is quite different.
The 99 or 98 rated horse is quite different in a Group 1 to an Open.

Lonhro might beat a 99 horse in a Group1 race by a length, and he might beat a 99 Open horse by the length of the straight.

They don't take into account opposition.

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The other thing that has bugged me for sometime with back testing is,

How accurate do you think it is, is it 100% or 80% accurate?
I now the results are accurate but what about future results compared to the past results., if you can under stand that.

Very good question Crackone,

I can only vouch for my ratings-handicapping, I think the same would be valid for all handicapping, and I'd say it is at least 95% accurate.

Don't know about systems though, don't use any, I think it would have to be far less than this simply by the very rigid nature of them.

With handicapping you are using dynamic data applicable to today's
race, with systems there is only past data that fits a horse, and may not have anything to do with today's race conditions.

I'm guessing of course re. system accuracy.

Good luck

1) Last start winner
2) Ran in the last 10 days
3) $6 or less at jump time