1 VICTORY VEIN Bede Murray D Beasley 18 55.5
2 ROYAL PURLER Gregory Hickman G Boss 11 55.5
3 CHUCKLE Gai Waterhouse J Cassidy 13 55.5
4 COUPE Mathew Ellerton V Hall 10 55.5
5 RARE INSIGHT (NZ) John Hawkes D Gauci 16 55.5
6 LASHED Graeme Rogerson D Oliver 12 55.5
7 LA BELLA DAME Mick Price D Nikolic 5 55.5
8 FUJI DANCER David Racovolis K McEvoy 8 55.5
9 PRESUMED INNOCENT Tony McEvoy S Seamer 6 55.5
10 MILANOVA Tony McEvoy S Baster 7 55.5
11 NUL AUTRE David Brideoake A Findlay 9 55.5
12 ANTIQUE George Hanlon G Childs 19 55.5
13 MACEDON LADY John Symons Steven King 2 55.5
14 BULLA BORGHESE Ron Quinton B Prebble 3 55.5
15 COCKTAIL EVENING Tony McEvoy P Mertens 14 55.5
16 JUST FAME Bruce Cross 17 55.5
17E TARCOOLA DIAMOND Dean Lawson N Rawiller 4 55.5
18E IT'S WHO DEANIE John Salanitri 15 55.5
19E MAKE ME STRONG Bart Cummings S W Arnold 1 55.5

MACEDON LADY well drawn, won two of last three – 1400m slow track, 1700 good track, close 4th at Caulfield (1400m) last start meets winner 2kg better. LA BELLA DAME – also well drawn, undefeated at Caulfield, not a bad run last start in Manifold.
FUJI DANCER – another well drawn, top run in the Manifold, to-date not done all that well at Caulfield.

Very interesting race, won last year by the eventual Oaks winner, Magical Miss (beat Ha Ha from memory).

As if it wasn't already hard enough to find the winner, the barrier draw has confused things even more with most of the main contenders drawing wide.

I haven't had a chance to take a detailed look at each horse yet, but some early comments based on previous memory and observations:

Royal Purler: While she beat Victory Vein last start, she did have a soft lead and had ideal conditions to run at her absolute best. In a big field from barrier 11 this race is a whole new ball game. Prepared to say she should be at least 20/1 to win.

Victory Vein: Versatility is her biggest asset and starting out in the carpark she is going to need it. Did she just have an off day last start? or did she fail to run a strong 1600m? who knows! With the gate and ? over last start she must be some risk. Experience tells me that the top 3YO races in the Spring are ideally suited to the improvers, those that are just coming onto the scene (i.e. Helenus, Platinum Scissors, Magical Miss last year etc.). I feel that Victory Vein has already reached her peak this preparation and can only go down from here. All that taken into account and the fact she is likely to be a shortish priced favourite, I am prepared to work around her and take her on.

Lashed: I really like this filly, looks to be a big chance in the Oaks. Had excellent Adelaide form in good time races and has been racing well this prep. Last start she showed the acceleration of a top quality horse when there was next to no pace in the race and even though the front runners were sprinting home hard, she was still able to make ground from somewhere like 14th on the turn to finish 3rd. Always needs luck racing from that far back but she strikes me as a filly just waiting to hit her peak and the conditions of this race look ideal for her to do that. D Oliver on board is another plus. She's my early pick.

Chuckle: Turned in two super runs so far this prep. On both occasions she has made up a lot of ground against the pace bias and should have won last start but for excellent tactics by C Brown on Planchet. Still on the improve and another suited by the good pace and pressure in this race. A big threat.

Rare Insight: Beat the Colts last start and prior to that ran an excellent race in Open F&M class behind Mica's Pride in very good race time. John Hawkes will have her 100% on the day but barrier 16 is a big concern.

Coupe: ok win last start but I think she was the right horse in the right race on the right day. There was nothing special about the figures from that race and she is yet to show me anything to say she can be competitive against the best 3YOF's.

Interesting in any other thoughts?

I agree with osulldj on the review of Lashed.

This Encosta De Lago filly is one of Graeme Rogerson's best hopes over the Spring.

Listed race and Group 3 race winner placed in last two Group 3 and Group 2 runs but is yet to break through to win a Group 2 or Group 1 race.

Only finished 0.3 Lengths away in both previous runs this preparation. Has barrier 12 but Oliver is engaged so should be able to overcome any trouble.

My special for the day!

:wink:

(8) Fuji Dancer – well drawn, looks to handle all track conditions, gave Lashed a start and a beating last start.

(1) Victory Vein – not well drawn, but a classy customer, only having 5th run after a spell, handles any type of going.

(5) Rare Insight – another not well drawn, having 4th run back from a spell. Top run to win at Randwick last start, 1600m looks ideal distance, placed on a dead track, unknown in slow or worse.


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BOOP - OOP - A - DOOP !

[ This Message was edited by: BettyBoop on 2002-10-15 13:40 ]

Look out for Make Me Strong if she gets a run. Ran a bottler in the Manifold and is on the way up - I have a feeling the fillies from the Flight Stakes may be over the top.

Rare Insight, Victory Vein, Royal Purler

My early assessments

Victory Vein 5.00
Royal Purler 8.00
Rare Insight 9.00
Lashed 15.00
Chuckle 16.00
Coupe 20.00

Not really to keen to have a bet here as my top 6 runners are all drawn in 10 or wider. VV way under the odds. Might win, but not with my money on it. Royal Purler and Rare Insight are about level with what is currently available.

One option might be to have a trifecta leaving VV out of the place and maybe including La Bella Dame, Fuji Dancer or Macedon Lady. 2x5x8 for 56 units? I don't normally bet tris so probably won't bother here.
Another option would be to leave VV out of doubles/trebles and include 4/5 next best. Laying favs usually gives value divis on these bet types as "everyone" includes them or even stands them out just because they're a short price.

This all of course means you would be betting against the horse you believe to have the best chance of winning, which some people don't like to do.

Think I'll have another look in the morning, but at this stage I'll just be watching.

[ This Message was edited by: thekey on 2002-10-15 17:34 ]

Rare Insight.

Updated after scratchings:

Victory Vein 4.70
Rare Insight 7.00
Royal Purler 7.00
Chuckle 14.00
Lashed 14.00
Coupe 16.00

What a race

Fuji Dancer from Coupe, Royal Purler and a saver on Lashed.