Here's a system that I've been betting using Don Scott's ratings:

1 ) Must be rated at $1.50 or shorter.
2 ) Must have won last start or ran second.

I'm showing a POT of slightly higher than 10% with Place betting. I haven't really checked Win betting but there have been two winners that have paid double-figures on NSW TAB.

The drawback with the system is that not only can the divvies be skinny but there are many days without any selections, and because of this I often have not bothered to check.

However, there are 5 selections today so I'll list them and see what happens.

Belmont R7 no.1 - Marasco
Bendigo R3 no.4 - Mammy Jolson
Eagle Farm R5 no.3 - Fravashi
Flemington R3 no.6 - Toulouse Lautrec
Morphetville R4 no.3 - Favelon's Dream.

Not a bad method there.

The win loss is only 1.43%
The place loss is only 2.16%

Getting best tote or Betfair, it's a simple winner.

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Thanks for that, Chrome.

Out of interest, Toulouse Lautrecs' final Place trade on Betfair was $1.21 yet it paid $1.04 on NSW TAB. I've found in almost every case that the lower the TAB Place divvy the greater advantage percentagewise using Betfair. The greatest I've seen was TAB $1.04 yet $1.31 (5% take-out not included) with Betfair.

It's Betfair for me now with this method which generally selects very short-priced horses, and your figures show it should be profitable.

I forgot to mention that if a selection has won its last three starts then it becomes a non-selection.

michael, I'll look into this further for both of us

I'll keep you posted, we might be able to expand this internationally and boost the number of bets.

I think you'd have at least 5 bets a day.

If you limit it to horses starting within 14 days it shows a slight profit, but also halves the number of bets.

From a lay perspective, horses that did not run first or second last start but are less than $1.51, it shows a 12.27% loss on turnover and 6.32% place loss.

I'd suggest any flat race would qualify and it's pretty easy to spot the horses that will trade that low.

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O.K.

Flat racing U.K.

Win loss 2% @ bookies SP
Each Way loss 1.90% @ bookies SP

Jumps racing U.K.

Win loss 1.60% @ bookies SP
Each Way loss 0.90%

LOAD UP



Thanks for this idea Michael.

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There is one possible tonight.

Tramore 12:50 Kharsya
Last start second
1m4f
Good to Firm
Bookies have it at $1.61
The challengers have run 4th and fifth last start.

Will be watching movements on course @ sporting life.

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Kharsya trading at $1.51 on Betfair.

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Chrome, it's firmed to $1.43.

I'll back it for a place.

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In spite of all the numerous races today there are no selections.