Hi All,

Back for another week. Last week was a reasonable result so hopefully we can back it up this week. Not bad fields at Doomben today, though a couple of them are on the small side.

Race 1 - I've settled on Felixtrinidad. This horse ran 3rd beaten a small margin in the Eye Liner 2 back at Ipswich, which is something i suspect none of his opposition today could produce. He doesn't seem to produce his best figures on wet tracks, so i'm prepared to forgive the last start 'failure'. Craiglea Warrior is next best for me. He is a supremely consistent horse, and from the alley should roll forward and be somewhere in the first 3 or 4. They are clearly the top 2 picks for mine. Gunsari was a good win the other day, however he may find it more difficult today with Kutalo in the race putting the pressure on. As i said though, he did run well the other day so he is a solid place chance.

Race 2 - This is a trap race. There is not much speed so I can't be too confident with anything. I've settled on Woorim because i think he has a good deal of upside, this being only his 3rd start. He has produced good runs at his only 2 starts, and if he gets some speed and a half decent run in this event, i think he can win. Chilled will be on pace, but is finding it a little hard to win in town. Everyone keeps telling us how good he is, now he just needs to show it. I'll wait until he wins one in town before i jump on the bandwagon. Jazz Heart was a terrific win last time coming from the tail. I have my doubts about the speed in this event which is why i have him only 3rd pick. If there was more reliable speed, he'd be on top as i think he is the best horse in the race.

Race 3 - Have settled on Le Sillage. It was a pretty good win last start and if she can go the extra 200m i like her chances of winning again. The 1 alley is just an added bonus. I've got Gun Belle in for second. She has produced reasonable figures at her last 2 starts, and if she reproduces runs like those, with no weight on her back, i think she can figure in the finish here. Russeting for 3rd. This horse has shown plenty of talent in her short career, with good performances in town races last prep. She hasn't seem to have come up as well this prep, but if she can somehow find some of the old form, she is a big chance in this event.

Race 4 - I've settled on General Albert. He produced a good run last time to win, and if he repeats a figure like that, i'd say he'd be thereabouts. The good track will help his chances too, as i don't think he is as effective with the sting out. Fangles is second, after a solid win at the Coast 2 weeks ago. He will be always in the firing line today and if theres not much pressure on up front, he can give them all something to catch. Ima Joker for 3rd after a good run last start behind Bold Reason. Although Bold Reason should have probably won by further, and was clearly the better horse, Ima Joker still put in a good enough performance to be given a chance here. He is a talented horse on his day and the alley is a massive bonus.

Race 5 - My Limit a special. If he repeats any of his last 5 runs, i think he just wins. He is in super form and he has been racing superior opposition. With the weight scale the way it is, and with the Jockey's claim, he comes in 2 under the minimum and he is a much better horse than the balance of the field. He will be short, but i think he's too good. Fastnstraight was a good win last time in town after having good support in the betting. I like backing up on horses their following run after being backed and this bloke fits that category. He isn't in the same class as My Limit, figure wise, but if My Limit strikes trouble, this bloke will be there ready to strike. Sir Coup for third after a reasonable run last time, though this is harder.

Race 6 - I have settled on Friendly Embrace. This is a very difficult race. This horse race a good race last time after being back and wide for most of the race. From the better alley today, and with the senior ride on, i think he can maybe take a slightly more forward position and be within striking distance on the turn. As mentioned above, Bold Reason put in a stunning effort last start to beat Ima Joker home and if he repeats that kind of run here i think he will be very difficult to hold out. He is my second pick. For third i have settled on Forestreno who is pretty consistent and he put in a good effort behind The Jackal in the Ramornie last time. He is a place chance.

Race 7 - Don't mind Umaprince here. On song, he can really dominate a race from the front. If they leave him alone here, with next to no weight on his back, i think he can pinch the race. Secrets Untold is racing in stellar form at the moment, and there's no reason why his streak can't continue. If he gets the right run with a fair amount of speed, he can finish over the top of them for sure. Grey Stream is third pick as she is racing in fine form around some quality opposition. Good chance.

Race 8 - I like Deacon here. He appears to be crying out for a distance like this. His last run was pretty good and so if he gets some speed here and Pengelly can give him a good run, i think he'll be too good. Bann Ruby was deep last time and produced a very good run to just be beaten into 4th. From the 1 alley today will spend no extra gas and will be thereabouts at the death. Daffy can run a race at odds too, after some good runs at Toowoomba.

Well My Limit and Deacon are my best today, which a good eachway chance to Umaprince. Hope you have some success with whatever you choose to go for

Sven

Interesting stuff.

Im going for Gunsari in race 1 (as my only tip for the day). That is based on a system ive developed recently with the past 2.5 years data (> 35k races). It only picks about 1 every fortnight or so but the strike rate is 34/70. So this is the first day ive actually used the system to look at the races and Gunsari was the pick. I will be interestd to see the results of your tips when I get back tonight though

Race 1: Gunsari had to work hard from barrier 15 of 15 last start. Drops 2.5kgs and gets the rail. Hard to beat.

Race 2: rubbish

Race 3: Russeting

Race 4: Fangles, General Albert

Race 5: Not sure of the pace here, so a bit concerned about My Limit. Chances to Fastnstraight, Regal Gaze, Tariki and Sir Coup

Race 6: lottery

Race 7: tricky - Secrets Untold from Umaprince

Race 8: Deacon (best bet for the day)

Hope you have a good day, Sven.

You know how sometimes you open up the form guide and the winners seem to pop straight off the page at you, and you're extremely confident. But then they all get rolled. Well, I hope it's not one of those days for me.

I guarantee it happens every time.

I've fared FAR better in the other states where I wasn't nearly as confident.

Well done with Friendly Embrace, Sven.

Geez, well done Filante. Good work.

Wish I'd paid attention to your tips BEFORE the races.

Apart from Deacon, I struggled.

And Sven picked up Felixtrinidad and Friendly Embrace, Sportz...

I like Doomben as it rewards you for analysing tempo, in-running positions and the effect of barrier position on the individual runner - I think more than any other major Australian track.

I missed the races this weekend due to a wedding. Just wondering what happened to My Limit?? Did it just get to far back with no pace or what?

Couldn't get a run in the straight.

Thanks Makybe. Thought something must have gone wrong.