Australian Open Round 2 - my rated prices (to 100%) - for those that don't know the shortest price I rate anyone is 1.03 (conversely 33.33 is the longest).

MALISSE, XAVIER 4.33 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.3 - Malisse had to qualify here (another Slam Semi Finalist - along with Hrbaty - who had to slog it out over three consecutive days even to make the draw), not the player he was but may push Roddick a little. A-Rod too short with bookies for my liking.

SANTORO, FABRICE 2.17 vs KOHLSCHREIBER, PHILIPP 1.86 - Kohl ridiculously short in early markets for a bloke who pulled out of Auckland last week with a shoulder problem. Value play would be Santoro, for a small amount.

ROBREDO, TOMMY 1.6 vs Troicki, Viktor 2.67 - Bookies are betting close to my prices (if they'd bet to a 100% book they would be!!!). No betting here.

NALBANDIAN, DAVID 1.03 vs LU, YEN-HSUN 33.33 - A fit healthy Bandy wins this, but there are a heap of guys put up under 1.10 today and I can't come at punting at those prices.

SODERLING, ROBIN 1.5 vs BAGHDATIS, MARCOS 3 - Soderling a bit of value at 1.65 and Baggy is priced on what he has done in previous years, not where he's at right now - I'm on the Swede.

BOLELLI, SIMONE 2.47 vs FISH, MARDY 1.68 - Bookies put up prices similar to mine so why punt?

MATHIEU, PAUL-HENRI 1.27 vs DELIC, AMER 4.7 - Never been able to get Mathieu right and Delic just a serve (which doesn't always land in the court - and I mean the whole court, sometimes the crowd is an option). I'm ignoring this match and the form out of it.

Chardy, Jeremy 4.32 vs Djokovic, Novak 1.3 - Djokovic not really switched on in his appearances so far this year, and Chardy an up and comer (will be popular with the top shelf crowd even it's only becuase of his name). No way I'd take 1.08 Djokovic at the moment, but given his experience he should win.

MAYER, FLORIAN 8.64 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 1.13 - Del Potro winning Auckland as a lead in, Mayer playing New Caledonia Challenger and then qualifying here, attempting to get back to his best. His slice returns may upset the rhythm of Del Potro, but current form has Argentine written all over this. Not that I'd be jumping into the 1.05 that's on offer.

Tomic, Bernard 33.33 vs MULLER, GILLES 1.03 - Tomic rated no hope by myself, due to the fact he's been in my database about 3 minutes. Has the bonueses of crowd support and Muller potentially being exhausted by his 16-14 5th set in in R1. Tomic two wins and 1 loss to lefties so no idea about how he handles them. I do expect Muller to win this but I don't bet against local players. I pity anyone who has night tickets to Rod Laver and cops this sham - I'd be asking for my money back.

Cilic, Marin 1.27 vs TIPSAREVIC, JANKO 4.67 - Tipsarevic been out of sorts in Australia and did battle in R1. These guys played a few weeks ago in Chennai with Cilic winning 64,06,64 but then they bet 1.52, now you have to take 1.40 or so. Serb vs a Croat so fireworks in the crowd a potential distraction. If I was forced to have a bet on this match it would be Cilic. Only if I was forced though.

FERRER, DAVID 2.87 vs HRBATY, DOMINIK 1.54 - Hrbaty the outsider with the books, had to qualify here and beat the big serving giant Isner in 4 sets, Ferrer taking 5 to beat the average Gremelmayr. Both of these have made the Quarters here before and both are Slam Semi Finalists so show court 3 is not a bad venue for them. Value is with Hrbaty all the way and he's worth a small punt.

WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 1.28 vs Klein, Brydan 4.54 - Aussie will need all of the support to make him believe he is even a rough chance. Wawrinka at 1.05 or so is a joke, it was only a few years ago I saw him in qualifying (getting whipped by Djokovic).

DABUL, BRIAN 7.04 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 1.17 - Berdych the Safin of the noughties - which one will be on court? Not taking a ridiculous price even in a multi, should win easily though.

SAFIN, MARAT 1.63 vs GARCIA-LOPEZ, GUILLERMO 2.58 - Safin way shorter than my rated price, but if the real one turns up (which can do at these events) then he is a 1.25 shot. Garcia-Lopez will struggle even if Safin is only 75% tuned up.

FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 vs Korolev, Evgueni 33.33 - The great one wins but there is no way I'd take 1.02/1.03 about any bet not even in multis.

I'll be trying Hrbaty and Soderling - maybe having a nibble at Santoro. Besides that all the short priced ones can go around without me.

Cheers

Tony

I'm amazed that there was such a plunge on Hewitt today. In the end, he played damn well just to take it to 5 sets, but I always expected Gonzalez to win it. He was good value in the end.

I did rate Hewitt favourite in that one - but didn't punt that match. Plunge of the day goes to Istomin over Spadea, when I checked this morning at Sportingbet he was in from 2.25 to 1.87 or so at the jump - the smart money got the chocolates too.

i think your spot on the money there

You can't swear in this forum so what's the point??? **** of a day. I could be like other forums and claim Santoro, but hey I lost my only two punts, a weak (read pathetic....soft.....got here on a cheap ranking and don't care no more) Hrbaty and a soft (read pea hearted.....I'll never be any good if I keep giving up when the going is slightly tough) Soderling.


Thursday is a new one but..

Here are my prices but there is absolutely no reason to punt any match at all.

Australian Open Round 2
KARANUSIC, ROKO 33.33 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.03
HAAS, TOMMY 1.5 vs CIPOLLA, FLAVIO 2.99
GASQUET, RICHARD 1.08 vs Istomin, Denis 13.05
CANAS, GUILLERMO 4.42 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 1.29
Monfils, Gael 1.17 vs KOUBEK, STEFAN 6.93
ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 1.78 vs Fognini, Fabio 2.28
KARLOVIC, IVO 2.16 vs ANCIC, MARIO 1.86
GUCCIONE, CHRIS 5.28 vs Simon, Gilles 1.23
Granollers, Marcel 33.33 vs MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03
BECK, ANDREAS 2.36 vs MELZER, JURGEN 1.74
STEPANEK, RADEK 1.35 vs BERRER, MICHAEL 3.88
CLEMENT, ARNAUD 6.92 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.17
BLAKE, JAMES 1.19 vs DE-CHAUNAC, SEBASTIEN 6.35
Gulbis, Ernests 1.59 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 2.69
SELA, DUDI 2.39 vs HANESCU, VICTOR 1.72
TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.19 vs LJUBICIC, IVAN 6.35

Yesterday I could have called Federer into Djokovic into Roddick into Del Potro into Berdych into Safin and got us 1.50 - but hey my nature isn't into calling good things at 1.05 - no rocket science in that.

Today you could put Nadal into Gasquet into Monfils into Murray into Stepanek into Verdasco into Blake into Tsonga and get 1.80 - do you really want me to tell you they'll win??????

Would like to know if anyone has any opinions different from the usual....if you do post 'em here and I'll be an obnoxious old bu*ger and ignore you.

Cheers

Tony

Apologies for missing Friday's matches, been flat out.

Saturday at Melbourne Park.

HAAS, TOMMY 5.19 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.23 - Nadal holds a H2H of 3-0 advantage (Haas not taking a set) and Haas no longer the player he was. Brittle body probably won't have the power to match Nadal here.

GASQUET, RICHARD 1.46 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 3.15 - Amazingly not played before and bookies have this the other way around. Gasquet a little enigmatic and Gonzo does do well here, but the Frenchman being over 2.0 means he has to be tried, just as a value punt.

Monfils, Gael 1.08 vs ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 14.26 - A win each in two encounters. Current prices available Monfils are actually juicy. Bloke can throw in a shocker now and again so be warned - may have his act together with a new coach. May not!!!

Simon, Gilles 1.9 vs ANCIC, MARIO 2.11 - Ancic won their only encounter back in March last year in Miami in a three setter. Simon's style of play should counter Ancic's - an interesting one but not one where I'd punt.

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03 vs MELZER, JURGEN 33.33 - Murray with a 3-0 record against Melzer, but Melzer took it to 5 at the US Open last year and to 4 on grass in the Davis Cup later in the year. For the record Murray is 29 wins and 8 losses to lefties (5 of those losses have been to Nadal and if you take him out of the equation he hasn't lost to a southpaw since Di Mauro in a Challenger 3 years ago when Murray was still eligible for junior events). Ridiculously short, but wins.

STEPANEK, RADEK 2.52 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.66 - Stepanek 3-0 in the H2H stakes and has a 43 win 15 loss record to lefties (includes those three matches). Bookies price it very similar to my prices so leave it alone.

BLAKE, JAMES 1.38 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 3.62 - Blake with a 5-0 H2H record against the Russian - another match where bookies aren't offering a lot of value.

SELA, DUDI 3.27 vs TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.44 - Tsonga a lot shorter with the books but does have a dodgy back so I wouldn't be jumping at short prices. Played last year with Tsonga winning 2&4.

Probably another conservative day of punting but the young Frenchmen Gasquet and Monfils are value prices so probably the ones worth trying. Chuck Murray into multis as well if you want to add a further 6% to your calcs.

Cheers

Tony

Sunday's rated prices a little early for you and as we get this far into the draw you have the usual suspects.

Australian Open Round 4
ROBREDO, TOMMY 3.41 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.42
Djokovic, Novak 1.53 vs BAGHDATIS, MARCOS 2.89
Cilic, Marin 2.31 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 1.76
FEDERER, ROGER 1.18 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 6.6

Can't see there being much value around (Cilic will be overs but I do rate him the outsider). Another day of learning not punting.

Cheers

Tony

Thanks Tony. Input much appreciated.

Baghdatis looks short at that price, you thinking possible upset?

Do you have a prognostic on Dokic-Kleybanova. The Aussie might be under the odds.

thanks.

I only rate Baggy only a 34% chacne of winning but having said that Djokovic has been out of sorts this year, also been receiving bad press from the way he handled questions about the fights in Melbourne Park. I'd rather leave that match alone as it is a former winner against a former finalist - one thing's for sure, there will be crowd noise galore - more like a soccer match than a tennis match.

Monday's rated prices.

Australian Open Round 4

NADAL, RAFAEL 1.34 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 3.96 - Don't know if Gonzo can back up after a 12-10 5th set match against our value play Gasquet (tie break in third set went deep too so we weren't far off the mark, but they don't pay out on that). Expect Nadal to win here, but he'll be short.

Simon, Gilles 2.39 vs Monfils, Gael 1.72 - Two Frenchemen and I won't be punting. A close one to boot.

VERDASCO, FERNANDO 9.07 vs MURRAY, ANDREW 1.12 - Stepanek double bagled against Verdasco, he won't have it as easy here.

BLAKE, JAMES 2.26 vs TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.79 - Tsonga's back was playing up the deeper he got into his match against Sela, will have to be fit to win this one, a close encounter on the cards in my opinion.

A couple of interesting matches and a couple that should go the way of the favourites.

I'm not punting but have fun if you do.

Cheers

Tony