Lets see how my new ratings go today , they are similiar to the old ratings with just a few changes , but in the trial races it went very very well.

Caulfield.

Race 4:

11 - Soprana.
2 - Maskerado.
1 - Platinum Scissors.
3 - Clangalang.
5 - Ain't Here.

Race 5:

7 - The Pumper.
15 - Southern Crown.
1 - Mr Bureaucrat.
9 - Burleigh.
13 - Paestum.

Race 6:

10 - Salgado.
6 - El Nino.
9 - Jai's Jump.
7 - Flavour.
4 - Fritz.

Race 7:

10 - Fair Embrace.
3 - Intelligent Star.
4 - Strategic Image.
1 - Rubitano.
6 - Belle Du Jour.

Race 8:

12 - Dash For Cash.
5 - Fields Of Omagh.
2 - Universal Prince.
20 - Hail.
16 - Distinctly Secret.

Race 9:

17 - Gentle Genius.
4 - Tribula.
7 - Heptonstall.
1 - Hosannah.
3 - Suzy Grey.

Race 10:

2 - Romantic Sea.
8 - Raja Lane.
11 - Celestia.
13 - Limerick Lady.
5 - Kaemess.

Randwick.

Race 3:

6 - Inclusion.
8 - Kreisler's Jewel.
7 - Centa's Gift.
5 - Space Age.
4 - Baghdad.

Race 5:

3 - Quest For Success.
4 - Beryl.
2 - Provokes.
6 - Brisanna.
1 - Bridal Hill.

Race 6:

2 - Spillway.
3 - Mon Mekki.
8 - Manzeal.
9 - Star Of The Seas.
5 - Feed The Meter.

Race 7:

7 - Pastime.
6 - Can't Tackle.
4 - National Saint.
3 - Alibarber.
5 - Strabane.

Race 8:

4 - Sri Lanka.
9 - Sacra Clause.
1 - Bosworth.
2 - Hot Tin Roof.
10 - Forbill.

Eagle Farm.

Race 1:

2 - Creations.
5 - Comet Way.
8 - Craiglee Fame.
1 - Command The Wind.
4 - Remabay.

Race 3:

5 - Lincoln Road.
2 - Timely Waters.
7 - Electricity.
4 - Trenches.
3 - Sundae Jester.

Race 4:

10 - Sponge Bob.
5 - No More Kisses.
6 - Kilbrannan.
8 - Ring That Bell.
2 - Negate.

Race 5:

1 - Deerhill.
3 - Kugelhopf.
8 - Phenom.
4 - Mougi.
6 - Awesome Edge.

Race 7:

5 - Yallah Stinger.
10 - Betula.
9 - West Ward.
2 - Aflac.
4 - Animate.

Race 8:

6 - Luilatui.
1 - Yogi's Edition.
3 - Mr Leprechaun.
5 - Tabasco Girl.
7 - Volcanic Hurrah.

Enjoy.

__________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.

I guess it's back to the old drawing board.

One bad week doesn't make a tragedy. Keep at it...review your analysis after the race and see if there is anything you can learn. What judgements did you make about horses? On what information were they based? Was it reliable information of some educated guess work? How certain or confident were you? What areas were you uncertain about?

It seems to me from this weeks sample that your ratings take a large account of weight. My own experience has led me to believe that weight is a secondary factor. Class, Pace, speed and the trip a horse has have much more impact on the outcome of a race.

I have already posted my thoughts on weight here previously....but basically, weight reductions below 54.5kg's do nothing to speed a horse up. A horse only has a given level of ability or speed, irrespective of how low the weight is that it carries. My work has led me to believe that a horse can perform just as well with 54.5kg's as it can with anything lower.

If I was doing class and weight based ratings I wouldn't give any credit or penalty for weight below 54.5kg's.

Thanks Osulldj.

Yes they do take weight into account a little to much i noticed when reviewing the results on Monday , i have slightly downgraded weight importance and slightly upgraded class and lengths beaten at each particular class rating plus included a pace and analysis rating to include into the ratings.

So far using the new scale it has not been far of picking the trifectas and first 4's let alone the winner.

Eg first 2 rated races at Caulfield on Saturday:

Race 4:

1 - Platinum Scissors - 1st.
2 - Maskerado.
4 - Hydrometer - 2nd.
11 - Soprana.
5 - Ain't Here - 3rd.
9 - Davidoff - 4th.

Winner - top pick.
Trifecta - top 5.
First 4 - top 6.

Race 5:

15 - Southern Crown - 4th.
5 - Mr Lofty - 1st.
2 - Society Beau - 3rd.
13 - Paestum.
1 - Mr Bureaucrat.
10 - Little Miss Quick.

Winner - 2nd rater.
Trifecta - top 6.
First 4 - top 6 @ $4000.

Hopefully i can post the selections on Saturday morning as they now take a while to complete but hopefully it will be worth it.

Once again thanks for the comments Osulldj.

__________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.