Hi

I am trying to learn more about staking plans.

Is there anything inherently wrong by using a plan that bets to win a certain amount?

For example, I want to try and win $1000 on every bet I make.
Therefore on a 6.00 chance I bet $200, on an even money chance I bet a $1000, etc

Thanks.

The way to do this properly, is to divide the price , not the odds into the takeout amount.
It increases the POT over a series of bets.
It also keeps the outlays down, especially on really short priced runners.

Example.No.1
Over 2 races. Betting to Price (Decimal Odds).
R1. $2.50 / 1000 = O/L $400 loses . Ret $00
R2. $6.00 / 1000 = O/L $167 win . Ret $1000.00
Profit +$433 (567-1000)
POT 76.36% (433/567)

Example No.2
Over 2 races Betting to Odds (Fractional Odds).
R1. 1.5/1 (2.50) / 1000 = O/L 667 loses. Ret $00
R2. 5/1 (6.00) / 1000 = O/L 200 wins . Ret $1200
Profit +333 (867-1200)
POT 38.40% (333/867)

One can see the difference.
The thing to focus on is the POT%.


One can bet to price using 2 or more horses a race also.

When doing this comparative exercise, its best to run it over 2+ races to get a proper comparative feel for the difference, because one is usually betting more than just 1 race & it's at the end of the day, when all the percentages come together.

This is the way bookies do their figures & is considered to be the best way to place ones bets rather than level stakes betting, according to book makers.

It keeps the figures to a comparative balance to one another & it's this comparative nature that allows the Bookmaker to create a book percentage against us, because he has to book the field and we don't .
That's the difference between us & them.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Panna,
Could I suggest that your approach has an in-built flaw....?
By taking what the market offers you are always "betting to bad prices" and accordingly.....sorry mate but you will lose.....in the long term!
To alleviate this problem could I suggest that you avail yourself of your own ratings or follow those which are freely available on this website.
Thereby, you will not always be backing the general public "popular elect" which over the years has been found to be erroneous in up to 20-30% of all races.
That way you may regularly secure $6.0w or similar for some starters which are showing < $2.0win on the bookies' boards.
Hope that helps.

Havagoodun.

So do I mate!

if the odds are 3.00 the sum would read
100/3 = 33.33 leaving 66.67
33.33/66.67 = .499 x 1000 = bet $500
if you price a horse at 2.50 and it comes up 3.50 ...nice overlay if it wins
I have this to say though if you know your win strike rate and you can achieve above it by 10 cents then you are getting a little value with it
But remember you must take the good with the bad ....cheers

Panna.
Most fulltime professionals multiple bet on X number of horses in the 1 race to make a profit whichever 1 wins.

Cheers.
darky.

I don't understand. We can only take what the market offers us. If we think its not value, we don't take it. I believe I have the abilty to determine whether a horse is value or not.

I punt a little differently than most people here. I don't use stats, databases, etc . I am an avid follower of the sport and never tire of watching races, listening to interviews, reading about the sport, etc My ratings are what's in my head. ie. I have an intimate knowledge of particular horses, trainers, jockeys, tracks and the game in general. I have no interest in following other people's ratings.
This approach has stood me well for a number of years.

What I am looking for is to 'better' capitalise on my ability to source winners; hence my question on staking.


Again I don't understand. Who said I always go for the "popular elect"? Sure when I do bet, it is often a horse well in the market. But I feel I know the difference between a true favourite and a false favourite.
By the way, if a bookie is showing <$2 on their boards, I'd love to know where I could get $6.
Obviously I am not following your argument but thankyou for responding.

not if im following xanadu either,

but for example yesterday pr7 - 3, unitab paid me $4.0 & top fluc paid me $7.0 even, result = one happy camper

many here keep on stressing the importance of obtaining best price & of course, they are right

Thanks for the detailed response Bhagwan.

I did a comparison doing the opposite. ie. R1. being the winner and R.2 being the loser.
The results were 92% POT (betting to fractions) vs. 76% POT (betting to decimals).

I sort of see what you're saying, but how can you be sure that betting to decimals increases POT over a series of bets?
Isn't it dependent on which particular selections win, as shown by my example where I reversed which race was the winner and which race was the loser?

Yes I noticed this while manually running through some examples and I am now trying to determine what this would mean for my results?
Would it result in me making less money (in absolute dollare terms) but achieving a higher POT?

cheers for your info