Was hoping one of the stats gurus here could help me out. I have been following a system on paper that targets the TAB numbers 1,2 and 3. So far for the few months it has been going well, and showing a nice 16% POT for the win. Yesterday however it got absolutely murdered. Now I realize that with a SR of 26% I expect that it is going to have some long runs of outs. Yesterday I got to 21 outs in a row. With all the wet tracks yesterday it got me thinking how weight affects runners on rain affected tracks.

Could someone please be able to tell the combined strike rate of TAB numbers 1,2,3 on

a-good tracks
b-dead tracks
c-slow tracks
d-heavy tracks


I am wanting to see if there is a drop off in the performance of the heavier weights as the tracks get wetter.

Cheers

Fast 15.42%
Good 14.57%
Dead 14.23%
Slow 14.23% snap
Heavy 15.40%

A look at place figures:

Fast 38.73%
Good 38.35%
Dead 37.72%
Slow 37.55%
Heavy 39.44%

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Thanks for that, seems it was more just a run of outs that conincided with a day that inlcuded many wet tracks.

Hi Thorns,
Is that 21 outs , races with 3 horses per race or individual bets.

The theoretical run of outs for 44% SR is 12 outs in a row.
This is the combined SR of the 3 horses all together.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

All individual bets, only bet on one horse per race with this method.

Stating the Blind Freddy obvious, the proportion of winners from Nos. 1,2,3 will be highest on heavy tracks where the most scratchings occur. Eg: 8 horse races will produce more 1,2,3 winners and place getters than 12 horse races. Sydney races should produce the most 1,2,3, winners, regardless of track conditions!

completely off subject but sure im not alone in waiting for sydney racing to 'snap out of it' & get back to some semblance of what it once was - a competitive, vibrant racing hub - seems those days are long long gone...