Well, what can I say!

Horses that were well beaten in that race (some close to 10 lengths) won on Saturday. What does that say about the race, bias of the track, interference or otherwise?

Any comments...?

Winners
Mr. Magoo was beaten 10 lengths - $8.60 winner Saturday
Scenic Peak was beaten 12.3 lengths - $14.40 winner Saturday.




[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-11 01:33 ]

As far as Scenic Peak is concerned, I simply forgave him that run. For a start it was on a dead track at MV. Secondly the horse is a model of consitency and his previous form this campaign was right up to his best. I assessed him on his Toorak 2nd. Thats the real Scenic Peak.

Mr Magoo: another consistent horse. Look at his ratings on Ozeform. His MV rating was light years below his true form.

I don't follow any hard and fast rules when it comes to a bad run, its a case by case decision. If a horse is generally consistent, and his previous form this prep is a true indication of his ability, I'll forgive them a bad run.

It doesnt always work, Hosannah is an example. Her form has kept declining since her win on Oct 5.

Brave Chief,

I would tend to agree about forgiving horses a bad run. This is especially true at Moonee Valley. Another point with Mr Magoo was he was back to more suitable class and distance.

Scenic Peak was wide all the way at MV, doesn't go his best on the track and had had his inoculation for Hong Kong a day or so before the race. Those injections are known to potentially affect a horse for a couple of days and it could have also been the reason why Falvelon was below his best on the same day only to bounce back to much better form his next run. His falure at MV and improved performance has nothing to do with the track bias etc.

Regardless of the reason for his previous failure, he was much better suited at Flemington on Saturday....he was drawn to get a perfect run and was on a much firmer track.

interesting regarding moonee valley.
had a very amateur friend ask for advice on flemington last week (more amateur than me)
and my advice was that after caulfield, moonee valley and then onto flemington consecutive weeks anything could happen.
and i suppose it was good advice.

Thanks for all your postings guys.

It's just I noticed an unbelievable turn of events Cup week.
Previous month was full of shortpriced winners - couldn't really get anything with reasonable form at good odds - and then the Flemington straight almost killed me!

Horses (not the one's mentioned) winning with very poor previous form with a leg in the air and really good form horses just not liking the long straight.
So I switched to horses which had won on the track - still got banana.

Oh well, there's always another day and another meeting - the only way it could have gotten worse is Sandown on a wet track. :lol:

P.S. I did clean up on Media Puzzle, Into The Night, Helenus but no great odds.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-12 00:06 ]