G'day everyone ,

Well i have been working pretty much fulltime to improve my ratings i used to provide on the forum and i think i just might have done it , even though its early days it picked 2 very big winners in Adelaide in its top 2 and top 3 , but you don't have to listen to me judge it for yourself.

Here are last Saturdays results:

Randwick.

Race 4:

3 - Beryl - 3rd , $2.00.
9 - Sequi - 1st , $3.20 , $1.40.
1 - Moonflute - 4th.
8 - Mi Senorita - 5th.
5 - Val's Regard - 8th.

Race 5:

2 - Lasting Faith - 1st , $4.30 , $1.50.
4 - Herckey - 5th.
1 - Family Of Song - 2nd , $1.30.
9 - My Woodie - 8th.
5 - Maiscarber - 4th.

Race 6:

2 - Navy Blue - 2nd , $1.60.
3 - Silent Impact - 5th.
5 - Manntavani - 3rd , $6.70.
1 - Inclusion - 4th.
4 - Hydromaster - 6th.

Race 7:

1 - Kootoomootoo - 10th.
10 - Impregnable - 9th.
2 - Majestic Fiesta - 6th.
7 - De Arman - DH 4th.
8 - Knickerbocker Kid - 1st , $16.00 , $4.20.

Race 8:

10 - Marfoo Star - 11th.
8 - Sir Redford - 6th.
3 - Bronz - 3rd , $2.10.
9 - Ruready - 10th.
12 - Tray Bit - Pulled Up.

Caulfield.

Race 4:

6 - Sundiata - 1st , $7.60 , $2.60.
4 - Airlie Bird - 11th.
7 - Blue Marwina - 4th.
10 - Sophie Princess - 9th.
3 - Self Interest - 5th.

Race 5:

2 - Restless - 9th.
12 - Merlin's Law - 4th.
1 - Thong Classic - 13th.
7 - Forlorna - 11th.
8 - Gunnamatta - 7th.

Race 6:

7 - Sir Chuckle - 2nd , $2.00.
1 - Super Impressive - 1st , $5.40 , $2.00.
2 - Ikaros - 5th.
5 - Boy's Talk - 9th.
12 - Our Arch Rival - 6th.

Race 7:

1 - Green Pick - 10th.
2 - Burglar - 3rd , $1.90.
13 - Walk On Air - 5th.
5 - Spring Warrior - 4th.
12 - Littlewood Lane - 1st , $5.70 , 2.40.

Race 8:

1 - Provokes - 2nd , $1.90.
7 - Past The Skies - 7th.
5 - Granniah - 4th.
3 - Woodwina - 3rd , $2.80.
4 - Born To Dream - 1st , $4.80 , $1.80.

Eagle Farm.

Race 2:

4 - Wishes - 4th.
1 - Doogall's Luck - 3rd , $2.00.
6 - Essjaypee - 5th.
3 - Victory Ranger - 8th.
5 - Glen Monarch - 1st , $5.90 , $2.00.

Race 3:

11 - Ardosh - 5th.
4 - Mr Fiorelli - 1st , $12.10 , $3.50.
10 - Belle Parez - 6th.
5 - Tabasco Girl - 2nd , $1.80.
7 - Run A Muk - 4th.

Race 4:

6 - Mongke - 5th.
15 - Good Result - 4th.
5 - Chicago Nights - 3rd , $2.00.
1 - For Love - 9th.
9 - Private Briefing - 6th.

Race 6:

3 - Deerhill - 9th.
4 - Gentleman Caller - 8th.
5 - Yuppie - 2nd , $1.90.
2 - Gillespie - 5th.
14 - Croftside Park - 14th.

Race 7:

1 - Golden Eye - 4th.
2 - Regulations - 6th.
5 - Baal Yabba - 5th.
4 - Wyngrove - 2nd , $2.10.
6 - Mister Omega - 3rd , $2.10.

Race 8:

1 - Leroy's Magic - 2nd , $2.10.
3 - Sahara Covet - 6th.
14 - Passer Passion - 12th.
12 - Gold Bolero - 10th.
5 - Get Going - 11th.

Morphettville.

Race 2:

1 - Moongara - 1st , $2.20 , $1.60.
3 - Lord Grable - 7th.
5 - Fox Helios - 6th.
2 - Simply Magical - 3rd , NTD.
4 - William Of Oz - 5th.

Race 3:

3 - Chaltom - 3rd , $1.90.
9 - Gatton - 7th.
6 - Jocosity - 10th.
4 - Big Demand - 8th.
1 - Elephant Rock - 4th.

Race 5:

5 - Intrepid Astronaut - 2nd , $1.80.
2 - Mint Of Gold - 3rd , $2.00.
3 - Cubiton - 5th.
1 - Noble Win - 1st , $6.10 , $2.40.
4 - Contrived - 6th.

Race 6:

10 - Smytzer's Mustang - 12th.
5 - Noble Glow - 10th.
4 - Umanoola - 1st , $78.40 , $13.90.
2 - Kolase - 7th.
9 - Dedication Boy - 8th.

Race 7:

10 - Decidela - 9th.
8 - French Revolution - 1st , $55.00 , $11.20.
6 - Finniss Rhythm - 2nd , $2.00.
1 - Hamster Jazz - 11th.
9 - Shack Window - 4th.

[ This Message was edited by: testarossa on 2002-11-25 22:47 ]

Very impressive go, Testarossa.

In fact quite close to some of my selections.

You are definitely on the right track here.

Keep up the good work, and watch those dividends!

:wink:

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-25 22:38 ]

Thanks EI.

It's early days as you know but hopefully it can sustain what it showed past Saturday.

One thing i am good at is reading form and the such but one problem of my betting is staking approaches and multiple betting.

I was hoping someone of your expertise EI or Becareful or someone very knowleadgable in this area might be able to help me utilise the ratings to maximise profits , especially in the multiples area (Tri's and first 4's)

Any information would be very much appreciated.

There will probably be other members with varied ideas on this, but I'll add my view on it for what it's worth.

One question....are you formulating your own price with the ratings or are you just ranking them in order of what you think the chances are.

If you're betting to prices, the best way to go with the win betting is to wait until you see something that is a double overlay on your rated price. Otherwise you'd be dutch betting 4 to 6 runners which I don't recommend really.

I.E. You rated at 6/1 and you are able to obtain 12/1.

WIN STAKING -

Probably 1% of your bank level stakes and review it again once your bank doubles.
You want to start of conservatively as you can experience horror runs as everyone does from time to time, and especially when it's a newly formulated plan.
Let's say your bank is hypothetically $100.
Bet $1.00 until your bank reaches $200 and then bet $2.00.
You might think it's way too conservative, but if your ratings are accurate, your bank will double and compound very quickly.
If you find you have a run of outs and have to fine tune your ratings, you'll last 100 bets before your bank is gone.
If you bet 10% of your bank you'll be bankrupt (hypothetically) after ten losing bets!
When your bank is gone entirely, up will bob five or six good priced winners.
Invariably it happens.
It's not Murphy's Law - It's the punter's lament.

As far as multiple bets go, now this is not an are where I am entirely up to speed with, but I would again suggest a careful and cautious approach.
Remember there's always more races tomorrow, if your bank is gone you have no chance.

If you're talking Trifecta's I'd probably go the value way as favourites in the top two placings decimate any real returns unless a bolter fills the placings and I'd suggest if it's a "real" bolter, you won't have it high in the ratings anyhow.

Good Luck Testarossa, let us know how it goes - I'm sure others on the forum will have other views to put forward, maybe you could be selective and take pieces from everyone who replies to suit your own style.
There's always more than one way to approach something.

........and discarding those runners from Testarossa's selections, for Sydney & Melbourne, that opened the same or longer as their PP, you would have chucked out 22 horses of which 1 won at 4/1. You go from 7 wins from 50 selections (14%) to 6 wins from 28 selections (21%), a huge difference.

:smile:

Thanks EI and Mark ,

No EI i don't formulate my own prices for the ratings , the selections are rated in the order of best rated horse down.

I have been looking for books on how to formulate your own prices but without much success although i found a few interesting articles in Practical Punting Monthly.

Mark which formguide or newspaper did you use for those PP odds , and thanks for that information i will definetely have to use that in some way in formulating the prices.

I will post Wednesdays selections and results later tonight or tomorrow.

Testa (can I use your first name?)

The PP are from Friday's Courier Mail, a Qld paper, but due to the limited press ownership I suspect that most newspaper markets are very similar. While we're here, does anybody know who or what formulates those markets?

I always had the impression they were made up by some journalist 10 minutes before the paper's deadline, ie so ad hoc to be useless for any sort of analysis.
I would be very interested in the level of data support you have for this correlation, Mark, sounds interesting.
Keep the good work up, Testa.

I agree with Tony. I've been on the phone speaking to one of the journos who told me he had better get off the line otherwise he'd be running late with the PP prices he had to do for the paper.

Well i think i will scrap the plans for posting Wednesdays ratings , they were very unprofitable to say the least , however in saying that i had a gut feeling they would not work on midweek racing compared to Saturday racing.

I guess i will need to change a few things for the midweek ratings , but MARK my words i will get there.