Some statistics on field sizes of 8 or less.

Some interesting posts in relation to backing the first 3 favourites. Back the 1st fav to breakeven and then set amount for the 2nd and 3rd favourite. Any other horse you lose the complete outlay

Basically for the period Jan 12 to May 12, I've run a test of all races for field sizes 8 or less and taken the strike rates of the top 3 in different areas. I've done this as by backing the top 3 favourites often requires the punter to monitor the movements of prices.

These are Metro and Rural races in Australia (mid week only)

Barrier
1 - 17%
2 - 13%
3 - 15%

TAB
1 - 22%
2 - 13%
3 - 17%

API
1 - 28%
2 - 19%
3 - 15%

Win%
1 - 21%
2 - 20%
3 - 16%

Place%
1 - 23%
2 - 23%
3 - 14%

AAP Market Price
1 - 29%
2 - 24%
3 - 16%

Starting Price
1 - 38%
2 - 21%
3 - 17%

As you can see your Starting Price has the best combined three strike rates.

But the value is more in the 2nd and 3rd ratings.

Just out of interest for anyone

Thank you.

Now thats the sort of quality posts we used to get when I first started posting here.

A return to the good old days - One hopes so.

Cheers
darky

Tote Price
1 - 37.33% (loss 13.50%)
2 - 22.18% (loss 15.41%)
3 - 15.63% (loss 16.19%)

Top Three (not cumulative)
25.05% (loss 15.03%)

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By looking at the AAP Market price you have

1st - 29%
2nd - 24%
3rd - 16%

The best strike rate for 2nd and 3rd raters

With some rough calculations I get the following

If you 1st rater wins 29% of the time you breakeven
If the 2nd and 3rd rater wins you get 40%
Anything else is a loser

To make anysort of profit on this system you would need to define your market percentages at 36.22% or less for the 2nd and 3rd.

I hope my calculations are correct on the attachment.

Regards

Attached Files

Market Percentages 8 Field horses.xlsx (14.4 KB, 515 views)

Hi Vortech ,
Have a look at 900 M races.
Bert Bogart used to bet the Fav @$4 +

Cheers

Sorry DD - I don't have any figures on favourites, only starting prices

Vortech, you do come up with some good stuff.

My oath Barn.
One of the new breed to keep a eye on as is Lord Greystoke..

Thanks Barny,

Got a very good system going at the moment for the Saturday Metro tracks.
Just can't make a good enough return on the Mid-week races yet. I suppose to many unknown factors with weak races. Just play around with some ideas from Wesmip1 and very happy with the results.

I have Bet Selector installed on PC at home with around 5 years of data, but wanted a system outside the square as you said.

I still haven't even touched on the areas of staking or laying yet. Not even sure of the best betting option in Bet Fair.

I think my next testing will be on the NZ races.

Vortech, good luck backing the first 3. My whole life is based on the statistics you've provided.......laying.