Hoping Wesmip or someone with a database can help me out here. We know that Betfair throw around the 20% better than TAB's figure as there main advantage in advertisements around the place. We also know that alot of that is down to those longer priced horses which get up at 2-3 times teh TAB price. Can anyone tell me the normal advantage BF prices have at the shorter end of the market, ie for horses $0-$5 on the TAB, 5-10, and 10-15?

Just got me thinking, if it was correct that you got 20% better long term, would I be correct in thinking that to be able to lay horses sucesfuly, you would need to be showing around a 30% LOT at TAB prices? I figure, markets run at 102% (give or take), plus you are offering 20% more than TAB, and then paying 5% comission as well which would with a 30% LOT at TAB, you should be showing a 3% POT laying?

This is some thinking after a bottle of red, and has got me confused as all ************y wether I am right in my maths there or not, doesn't quite seem right to me, but cant think of it any other way at the moment.

Any help on my questions?

Cheers

You are correct with that -30% figure on the TAB.

If one is inventing Lay systems of their own, using say a data base like OnlineSystemBuilder (Free- Google)
We need to see a resulting figure of -30 to - 40% LOT because they are using TAB prices.

__________________
Cheers.

Keep in mind these are the results I recorded. I have provided two sets of figures. The first is if you wanted to bet the numbers. This is the price that was available . The list is Price, unitab price, betfair price, betfair price/unitab price. This is before commission has been taken out. It is rounded to the nearest dollar.

1	97.2	107.71	1.108128
2	1902.8	2230.65	1.172299
3	3508.2	4079.79	1.16293
4	4175.3	4778.95	1.144576
5	4110	4727.01	1.150124
6	3970.9	4644.47	1.169627
7	3054.7	3509.39	1.148849
8	3207.1	3734.7	1.16451
9	2294.5	2558.35	1.114992
10	2431.5	2810.54	1.155887
11	2108	2364.32	1.121594
12	2036.8	2375.62	1.166349
13	1594.7	1772.24	1.111331
14	1618.3	1819.42	1.124279
15	1420.2	1643.19	1.157013
16	1168	1342.7	1.149572
17	1424.7	1518.12	1.065572
18	1326.7	1485.42	1.119635
19	1043.3	1264.3	1.211828
20	1038.7	1182.8	1.138731
21	1065.3	1232	1.156482
22	723.8	852	1.177121
23	735.9	871	1.183585
24	667.4	767.5	1.149985
25	724.1	791.92	1.093661
26	440.6	467	1.059918
27	807.9	1052	1.302141
28	616.6	837.5	1.358255
29	813.7	850.3	1.04498
30	508.9	620.5	1.219297
31	558.2	527.5	0.945002
32	543	621.42	1.14442
33	693.4	842.92	1.215633
34	441.4	546	1.236973
35	421.8	493	1.1688
36	395.9	490	1.237686
37	445.3	507	1.138558
38	416.9	379	0.909091
39	389.1	484	1.243896
40	319.1	346	1.0843
41	246.2	275	1.116978
42	377.4	449	1.189719
43	129.6	141	1.087963
44	132.8	132	0.993976
45	270.1	237	0.877453
46	274.9	235.2	0.855584
47	187.5	184	0.981333
48	336.5	374	1.111441
49	146.6	146	0.995907
50	199.1	281	1.411351
51	358.3	532	1.484789
52	260.2	290	1.114527
53	105.7	71	0.671712
54	162.3	151	0.930376
55	330.2	344	1.041793
56	111.6	115	1.030466
57	113.3	125	1.103266
58	57.7	70	1.213172
59	117.3	78	0.664962
60	239.7	209	0.871923
62	123.8	145	1.171244
63	126.2	67	0.530903
64	191.5	230	1.201044
66	263.9	318	1.205002
67	66.6	70	1.051051
68	68.4	80	1.169591
69	68.8	5.1	0.074128
70	69.8	90	1.289398
71	71.3	44	0.617111
72	71.8	2.42	0.033705
75	74.7	42	0.562249
77	77.2	50	0.647668
78	155.1	215	1.386202
79	79.2	150	1.893939
80	79.5	120	1.509434
85	255.1	360	1.411211
86	171.6	160	0.932401
88	87.7	110	1.254276
89	88.9	120	1.349831
91	90.8	90	0.991189
98	97.6	140	1.434426
111	110.7	210	1.897019
114	114	260	2.280702
130	130	340	2.615385

If you wanted to lay the horse these are the odds which you could have layed at. Same criteria as before.

1	97.2	108.64	1.117695
2	1902.8	4121.74	2.166145
3	3508.2	4377.32	1.24774
4	4175.3	6136.69	1.46976
5	4114.6	6112.44	1.485549
6	3970.9	5183.4	1.305346
7	3054.7	4765.8	1.560153
8	3207.1	5135	1.601135
9	2294.5	3006.1	1.310133
10	2431.5	3168.4	1.303064
11	2108	2843.7	1.349004
12	2036.8	2868.9	1.408533
13	1594.7	2313.75	1.4509
14	1618.3	2246.5	1.388185
15	1420.2	2000	1.408252
16	1168	1684.9	1.442551
17	1424.7	1983	1.391872
18	1326.7	2343	1.766036
19	1043.3	1736	1.663951
20	1038.7	1444.5	1.390681
21	1065.3	1455.5	1.366282
22	723.8	1113.5	1.538408
23	735.9	1295.5	1.760429
24	667.4	1026	1.537309
25	724.1	1173.5	1.620633
26	440.6	575	1.305039
27	807.9	1471	1.82077
28	616.6	1101	1.785598
29	813.7	1518	1.865552
30	508.9	880	1.72922
31	558.2	855	1.531709
32	543	799	1.471455
33	693.4	1180	1.701759
34	441.4	826	1.871319
35	421.8	765	1.813656
36	395.9	696	1.75802
37	445.3	782	1.756119
38	416.9	491	1.17774
39	389.1	686	1.763043
40	319.1	469	1.469759
41	246.2	380	1.543461
42	377.4	702.52	1.861473
43	129.6	180	1.388889
44	132.8	145	1.091867
45	270.1	275	1.018141
46	274.9	416	1.513278
47	187.5	370	1.973333
48	336.5	487	1.447251
49	146.6	185	1.261937
50	199.1	638	3.20442
51	358.3	871	2.430924
52	260.2	390	1.498847
53	105.7	298	2.8193
54	162.3	186	1.146026
55	330.2	640	1.938219
56	111.6	130	1.164875
57	113.3	140	1.235658
58	57.7	110	1.906412
59	117.3	200	1.70503
60	239.7	445	1.856487
62	123.8	225	1.817447
63	126.2	170	1.347068
64	191.5	505	2.637076
66	263.9	485	1.837817
67	66.6	75	1.126126
68	68.4	95	1.388889
69	68.8	290	4.215116
70	69.8	200	2.86533
71	71.3	320	4.488079
72	71.8	95	1.32312
75	74.7	150	2.008032
77	77.2	120	1.554404
78	155.1	280	1.805287
79	79.2	280	3.535354
80	79.5	150	1.886792
85	255.1	520	2.038416
86	171.6	195	1.136364
88	87.7	140	1.596351
89	88.9	230	2.587177
91	90.8	130	1.431718
98	97.6	170	1.741803
111	110.7	290	2.619693
114	114	440	3.859649
130	130	810	6.230769

I am sure you noticed the difference in prices and the % difference to unitab based on whether you wanted to bet or lay. It can be a huge difference.

I have done it rounded to $10 here as well so you can see the difference easier:

If you wanted to lay.

<5	11740.2	18232.24	1.552975
10	25049.9	35086.14	1.40065
20	10234.2	15600.4	1.52434
30	5921.6	10150	1.714064
40	3293.9	5211.52	1.582173
50	2321.2	4231	1.822764
60	1302	2315	1.778034
70	755.3	1710	2.264001
80	475.6	1050	2.207738
90	609.5	995	1.632486
100	97.6	170	1.741803
110	224.7	730	3.248776
130	130	810	6.230769

If you wanted to bet :

<5	11733.6	13564.98	1.15608
10	25049.9	28721.76	1.146582
20	10234.2	11692.01	1.142445
30	5921.6	6904.56	1.165996
40	3293.9	3745	1.13695
50	2321.2	2556.2	1.101241
60	1302	1223	0.939324
70	755.3	651.52	0.862598
80	475.6	655	1.377208
90	609.5	720	1.181296
100	97.6	140	1.434426
110	224.7	470	2.091678
130	130	340	2.615385

As you can see the differene can be huge depending on what price you get.
It should also be obvious that the higher the price the higher the % difference.

Also this is before 5% commission so after commission is taken into account the %'s will drop.

"Just got me thinking, if it was correct that you got 20% better long term, would I be correct in thinking that to be able to lay horses sucesfuly, you would need to be showing around a 30% LOT at TAB prices? I figure, markets run at 102% (give or take), plus you are offering 20% more than TAB, and then paying 5% comission as well which would with a 30% LOT at TAB, you should be showing a 3% POT laying?"

Lost me. Maybe I need some red as well.

Wes I believe your tables would be accurate and mean something, unfortunately I can't follow them.

For laying, if you lay at more than 100% you win, if less than 100% you can still win but take some risk. The trick is to lay the winner for less than your hold, and here's some advice wanted or not. ALWAYS put the fav in for something and 9 times out of 10 make it the worst result. Don't worry about comparing what the TABs or bookies are paying just concentrate on BF prices because ultimately (if laying) that is your only market. If you get it right, or that should be when you get it right, everything should show a profit. If forced to take a risk make it on the first 2 in the market (and/or the 3rd fav if it's short as well), the rest should always be winners.

This is what I was taught over 25 years ago by one of the bigger bookies of the day and it still works today.

Having said that, of course it's not the only way to win but is my preferred method.

Very sound advice Mark & you will rarely see that written in any book.

Could you give us an example of what you are explaining..

I use a program called Fairbot.
With this, I can Lay the 4th & 5th Fav to make a profit & also have it Lay the fav so that we break even if it should win & profit if it should lose.

This approach lowers the Liability considerable & if one cherry picks the right races to do it on, good profits can be had on the day with minimal exposure to large Liabilities.

__________________
Cheers.

I'll try but not sure how well they will copy to here.



Horse Racing > Leop 29th Dec : 2m Nov Hrd Showing 1 - 5 of 5 Selections

Selection Odds Stake($) Bid type Placed Profit/loss($)
First Lieutenant 34.00 2.15 Lay 29-Dec-10 13:00 -70.95
Hazeymm 60.00 1.22 Lay 29-Dec-10 13:00 1.22
Hidden Cyclone 4.00 18.37 Lay 29-Dec-10 12:59 18.37
Perfect Smile 24.00 3.05 Lay 29-Dec-10 12:59 3.05
Zaidpour * 1.46 50.44 Lay 50.44
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 0.00
Lay subtotal: 2.13
Market subtotal: 2.13
Commission @ 5.16%: 0.11
Net Market Total: 2.02

Didn't work very well.

what he is saying is if you layed the field to payout 100 in a 96% market you would lose $4 but if you set the fav to payout 120 as an example this would increase the overall hold and if that is above 100 then you win if any other runner except the fav wins, you would need to factor in coms as well, this can also be done on the back side but in reverse.

__________________
One Drive

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