I have been having success with a Lay system.

I have been laying the selections on Betfair S.P for the minimum liability allowable of $30.

This means that if a selection is odds-on or even 1000/1 and it becomes an accident, then the loss is only $30. And the selections can be bet early in the day.

We'll see how today's selections go.

Ararat
7/8
8/5

Nowra
1/10 (2nd fave)
2/6
3/2 (fave)
4/11
5/4
6/9 (fave)
7/9
8/8

Forum Curse???

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents for a loss of $20 - the Forum Curse struck as it was the only losing day so far.

I'll give it another go.

Mackay
1/5
3/9
4/6
6/10

Newcastle
1/4
2/1
5/6

Wodonga
5/2
6/8

Yesterday the system broke even.

I've been on and off laying another system but have not been keeping accurate records because most of the selections are outsiders. Over the 140 or so races there have only been three accidents for an acceptable profit. The system looks for horses that have little chance of winning but the divvies are quite small, and because of Betfair's S.P. minimum liability of $30 its not too punishing when an accident occurs.

I'll give this system a go today and see what happens:

Murray Bridge
1/8
4/12
6/13
7/11
8/5
9/16

Sandown
4/11

Warwick Farm
2/4
3/9
4/9
5/13
6/4
7/5

Pinjarra
1/6
2/1
3/2
4/9
5/7
6/13
7/6
8/3

Yesterday there were 21 smiles from the 21 selections for a profit of $14.10.

Today's selections:

Geelong
6/6
8/10

Gosford
1/8
3/8
4/3
5/13
7/14

Penola
2/6
5/11
6/7
7/6
8/2

Bunbury
1/3
3/8
5/8
6/10
7/6

Following you with interest, as always, Michael.

Can't understand how you are going to make much of a profit though. Its OK to say that you can preserve yourself from big payouts by using Betfair's minimum liability of $30.00; but as they are mainly outsiders that also means that you are only getting a small return. This seems to be borne out by yesterday's report of winnings of $14 from 21 successes a couple of days ago.

I realise that you are only 'testing' at this stage; but if you want a reasonable return for your efforts you have to outlay a goodly amount.

Or am I missing something?

Tell me that you had the 'brake' operational for Bunbury Race 7 yesterday..... on Unitab Domani's Girl paid $61.50!!!!

Merriguy, you are right - if a profit is made it will only be extremely small.

However, it appeals to me because there is a lot of action.

Yesterday was a bad day because of Domani's Girl - it paid $99 on S.P. Over the past two days the method is showing a loss is $12.18, or 32%, yet if I was laying them for an equal amount the loss would have been close to 50%. And the saving grace is that it is still showing an overall profit, and hopefully today will recoup yesterday's loss. If after many races the method is in profit I can increase the size of the bets. Conversely, if it is showing a bad loss I might back the selections on S.P. If we had access to a history of S.P. prices we could probably look at systems to see if they had a big win or loss, because the Back and Lay prices are exactly the same.

An observation - yesterday I looked at two races during their running. Our selection in one of them had the S.P. of $100 yet the last traded price on Place was $12.50. The selection in the second race had the S.P. of $110 yet the last traded price on Place was $18.50. Seeing that bookies give 1/4 of their Win price for the Place, it appears the Lay Betfair Place price on these outsiders could be good value. Unfortunately there is no S.P. available with Betfair.

Today's selections are:

Cessnock
1/15
4/8
5/12
6/12
7/7

Wagga
2/5
3/6
6/7
7/14
8/15

Canterbury
5/11
6/11
7/12

Moonee V
2/5
3/12
4/2
5/7
6/1
7/14
8/12

Sun Coast
1/7
2/12
3/16
4/6
5/13
6/14
8/10
9/7

Laying horses one out at big odds is fraught with danger. Long term the return is not worth the risk. Just my 2c worth.

I'm hoping the selection process is worthwhile. My previous outsider system which had been going for a coouple of months was profitable when I ended it due to worry of the high liability.

As a matter of interest, I 've been looking at another Lay system that selects horses in the high end of the market. I haven't kept records nor have I layed them, but I think there were about a dozen selections over the past few of days for no accidents.

The selection method does not seem logical but so far so good.

The rules I use are.

1) Top or equal top selection in the BRR rankings.
2) Not in the top 2 in Don Scott's market.

Today's selections are:

Wagga
7/2

Moonee V
2/5
4/10

Sun Coast
5/6
6/2

Yesterday there were 27 selections for 27 smiles for a profit of $21.97. There was another selection which I incorrectly listed as there were only 7 starters - I only look at races with 8 and more starters. It's S.P. was $11 and was unplaced, but I'm not recording it as a smile.

Today's selections:

Queanbeyan
1/7
3/9
4/8
5/7
7/3

Rosehill
5/10
7/5

Gold Coast
1/7
2/11
3/4
4/11
5/10
6/9
7/4
8/15
9/17

Flemington
4/1
7/12
8/4

Morphetville
1/7
2/9
4/4
6/2
8/5

Kembla
3/8
4/4
5/26/11
7/18

Bairnsdale
1/1 (pre-post fave)
2/5
6/12
7/12
8/3

Corowa
3/13
5/10
6/13

Toowoomba
3/11
5/11
6/12
7/5

When the scratchings for Ascot are loaded I'll list the selections here.

Here are today's Ascot selections:

2/7
5/5
6/2
7/4
8/3.

Today there is a total of 46 selections - here's hoping.