I fully support posters here who have suggested that most punters dont have discipline. I'm gulty of that too. I'm sure there are systems that are profitable, but the first sign of a run of outs and most of us run for the hills and look for something else. The system needs to be logical and not backfitted within an inch of it's life.

Your system needs to be different to what everyone else is doing. Find a rule, or and edge, something / anything that cannot easily be retrieved from a database or ..... an element in your system which allows for the removal of a selection (eg: gear change, breeding).

It seems everyone spends an inordinate amount of time trying to find the class horse, the fittest horse, the weighted special, barrier, course, distance ..... and dont take luck into account. How can you account for luck?! Well you can't, so nothing can be taken for granted, but some of these filters like the barrier and weight are over-rated as to their influence on the outcome of a race. You need to have luck in this caper and need to understand it is a more important element than some filters. Just accept that it will go against you and may be a part of your system performing badly.

To get to the top 3% you need to do something that the other 97% aren't doing. You're NOT battling the bookies, you're battling against the 15% take-out from the TAB or other betting equivalent ..... and ..... the other 97% of the punters.

Hi Barney,
Its not too hard to beat the majority who in my observations are 1 horse a race punters.
Thats ok for a bit of fun (and we all need that) but will never make any long term meaningful profits in my opinion,

Cheers
darky

Ok , understood. But what is it that seperates one from everyone else?
Luck , well , it will send u to the poor house. opinion only. But do understand
exactly what you are saying. DD , "one horse a race punters" will be only for fun
and not generate a profit , co-incides with the STUFF ive been fooling with
(no not my wife!). If luck or multiple runners , do i dutch bet or level stake each
runner? Heres what my short system threw up for tomorrow -

WA Race 6
4-6-7-9
SR Race 5
1-3-6-8
SR Race 6
1-2-4-7-12
SR Race 7
2-4-7-13

What should i do in this instance?
Any help appreciated.
Thanks , The Dog.

I used to have issues with multiples with my ratings, i started eliminating anything under $4 if i had 4 runners, then i looked at the strike rates of each selection and found the top 2 were the most profitable in terms of strike rate v average dividend.

Hi Axledog,

Some interesting selections there. Not knowing the accuracy or system of selection, I would advise following the market and dropping no. 9 out of WA race 6, no. 12 out of SR race 6 and no's 7 & 13 out of SR race 7 (currently $41, $126, $51 and $121 fixed) from your selections.

This would leave you with:
WA Race 6
4-6-7 Prices: $8/$2.25-$15/4.30-$15/4.30
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 287% / 9.9%

SR Race 5
1-3-6-8 Prices: $14/3.40-$19/4.30-$3.40/1.44-$2.80/1.33
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 28% / -50.83%

SR Race 6
1-2-4-7 Prices: $21/6-$16/4.8-$13/4-$9/3
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 235% / 4.35%

SR Race 7
2-4
$4.6/1.8-8.5/2.7
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 202% / 8%

The Dutching figures for the place, are if only one horse fills the place. I have used Unitab fixed prices for this example, however if you shop around you should get much better odds.

Dutching will smooth out the betting cycle as you have more on the more fancied runners. I'd concentrate first on making sure your selections are profitable and then seeking the best odds wherever possible.

A link to an easy to use dutching calculator:
Dutching Calculator

Hope this is of some assistance Axledog and good luck! Shaping as a great days racing!

The Schmile

NZ horse racing today in Sydney, so one woud think the trainer is not just coming over here for the weather ..... TICK !

Generally speaking, I don't believe the following filters are worth taking into account .....

• the barrier (over-rated),
• days since last start as the "less than 21 days" shows a bias against winners compared with the number of runners, and if you take into account the good record of exactly 7 days, then it makes it even worse,
• usually wouldn't worry about the weight, but because it's carrying a fairly decent impost I've confirmed that it can successfully carry the weight

Is an on-pacer ..... TICK !

Good Strike Rate ..... TICK !

Wall Street ticks all the boxes for mine.

Hi Barny,
The quickest and simplest way and I use this myself and have done for 32 years is to just add 1 to the number of selections and use that as my MINIMUM acceptable price.

The "correct way" ala Don Scott is to frame your own market and bet those that are your prices or better.

Too much mucking around in my opinion.

Good luck today.

Cheers and warmest regards
darky

In the case of outrageous races like rosehill race 3 where More Joyous is $1.10 the win just bypass them.
Odds on horses win 58 % and yes lose 42 % (but its not a stat that I go against EVER.)
And sheesh there,s much more suitable races to bet on.
Its running as I write this so I,m curious but would never even entertain the thought of actually betting on that one.

Cheers
darky

ps Hope that bookies got tossed though.

Hi Axledog,

With that win of Rangi's in the George Ryder your selections are in front at level stakes after your second race, dutching wouldn't have fared so well.

Nice going though, on a tough day at Rosehill so far.

The 7 Hot Snitzel in the Slipper has been crunched. Maybe throw it back into calculations. Could be the Corey Brown factor more than form? He's on fire.

The Schmile.

Rangirandoo had the best place SR of all ..... hmmmm

Wall Street ran in the Cox Plate, missed the start by about half a length and just didn't get into the race after that, but still ran OK. There were no so You Think's in todays race tho'.

Hi darky, can you explain the just add 1 to the number of selections (what selections ?) please. I've read it before but don't follow what you mean.