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  #1  
Old 14th February 2012, 03:53 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Default In and Out like a Fiddlers Elbow

From old posts, kenchar, stugots and a fellow named Racer all seem to share the view that you stop betting once you've won, or reached your target. Bhagwan seems to think the same ???, is that right ??? It just doesn't make sense to me but a very, very good dog punter used to do the same. More often than not he'd be on his way home after the first, especially if the red was the fav.

There's got to be some merit in this ..........
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  #2  
Old 14th February 2012, 04:26 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Yep.And Osuldj used to have 70 bets a week (he wanted Turnover)

I suppose it depends on what suits the individual punter.
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  #3  
Old 14th February 2012, 05:21 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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It also depends on how your selections are chosen, there are plenty to say that there is no real last race just a set of selections for the day.

after you have tested an idea for long enough you will see what duits you, in the end the bottom line is what is important not turnover or selections.
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  #4  
Old 14th February 2012, 06:42 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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I tend to agree.
For me its Only about profit.
I dont give two hoots about the horse ,.only whether its worthy of a bet based on the Pro handicappers opinion of its form.
Cheers
darky
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  #5  
Old 14th February 2012, 07:59 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
in the end the bottom line is what is important not turnover or selections.


My bottom line is positive , but is minute when compared to the time spent messin' about.
I be better off just slappin' me Bank in the Bank.
But the thing is , the turnover is many many times higher in 12 months than what the Bank is.
And if you can understand that , please explain it to me
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  #6  
Old 14th February 2012, 08:31 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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I feel one has to ask the question first of.

Do I like profit
OR
Do I like punting heaps & heaps of races more.
That's what hobby punters like to do.

One has to ask the question of , how many winners one would I be satisfied with.

One would have to know their average SR of the method being used.

Example.
Say our method averages 23% SR

And you are happy to hit say 8 winners on the day.

That means one would be betting approx 35 races to hit objective based on 23%

Many professional punters would say that's too many because there is a greater chance of things to go wrong on the day.

Try & keep in mind that punting for profit is not an exact science.
Therefore less can often be best.

How many times have you seen one of those days that starts off bad & just gets worse from there.
If one were only targeting 1=6 horses on the day , the damage is contained.

Or a day where you hit 3 winners out of 5 races now in good profit , then give it all back and some, through out the day.

If one does wish to go the 35 races , then make sure you stop on the 35th bet, because that's what one was budgeting on doing.
Stopping is always hard to do , especially when we feel the winners should all be flooding through real soon after a couple of siccesses.

Many professional punters target 3-6 runners a day.
And sometimes the end up having no bets because they could not get the price they had in mind.

I feel a punter should first say , how much am I prepared to risk on the day and be less concerned about how much one is going to make , because it has not happened yet.
But you do have a say on how much the Liability is going to be, before we even start & stick to it.

========================

Heres a technique for lay betting.

100 Bet Technique

Say you have a lay method that has proved itself on many past results & now you wish to punt real money.

This technique requires the punter to Lay bet 100 races.
No recovery plans.
This can be over 4 days+ if need be .
But what one will observe is that there will be a number of successes then a clump going against us , then more successes .
So after 100 bets we should be in profit or small loss.

It smooths out the ups & downs more, doing it this way.

And you already know its a long haul approach which usually sits a lot more comfortable with most Lay punters.

I feel it can take a lot of the anxiety that comes with Lay betting because we are taking the big picture view of 100 bets.

Before one does this , its a strong idea to know one's max liability could be on a single race , then multiply this figure x 30

Example
Say the max price we are going to accept is 6.00 betting say $5 level stakes
$5 x 5/1 (6.00) 25.00 max Liab

25.00 x 30 = Bank $750 needed.

This 100 races approach works very well on most reasonable Lay methods.

You will either be in profit or suffer a small loss.

Best of all , one feels they can breath more freely with this more relaxed approach, because it tends to ride out the highs & lows.
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