OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Lay value vs Market Percentage

25th March 2012, 07:05 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Lay value vs Market Percentage

Not sure how this will format but here goes:

Code:


Pos 	Barrier 	Margin 	Horse 	Age 	Weight 	Gear 	
Jockey
Trainer
	In-play price 	SPs and Advantage
High 	Low 	BSP 	Tote 	+/− 	Place
1 	(3) 		Riata Special 	3 	56
	bL 	Adrian A. Ramos James J. Gonzales, Ii 	- 	- 	21.08 	10.40 	103% 	-
2 	(9) 	nk 	Kool Kue Country 	3 	56
	bL 	Esgar Ramirez Roberto Sanchez 	- 	- 	5.60 	7 	−27% 	-
3 	(10) 	2 	Full Battle Rattle 	3 	56.5
	bL 	Freddie L. Martinez Danny Urista 	- 	- 	14.50 	9.60 	49% 	-
4 	(7) 	ns 	Champions League 	3 	56.5
	bL 	Antonio L. Escareno Juan M. Esquivel 	- 	- 	25 	5.60 	396% 	-
5 	(4) 	hd 	Kl Wagon Master 	3 	56
	bL 	Jaime Parga Leos Harvey Baeza 	- 	- 	2.88 	5.20 	−57% 	-
6 	(2) 	¾ 	Country Kissin Chick 	3 	56
	bL 	Macario Rodriguez Martin N. Perez 	- 	- 	20 	8.70 	134% 	-
7 	(5) 	hd 	Twister In Three D 	3 	56.5
	bL 	Oscar Hernandez Salvador R. Soto 	- 	- 	42 	8.80 	399% 	-
8 	(8) 	1½ 	Run Dj Run 	3 	56
	b 	Oscar Ortega D. David Meridyth 	- 	- 	42 	10.20 	323% 	-
9 	(1) 	½ 	Action Dasher 	3 	56
	L 	Flavio Lozano Larry Chavez 	- 	- 	25 	9.30 	175% 	-
10 	(6) 	nk 	Thatsa Fire Chick 	3 	56
	bL 	Tanner Thedford Jackie E. Riddle 	- 	- 	55.07 	10.80 	424% 	-
10 Ran, Winning Time: 17.16s
Betfair SP Overround/Underround: 84%

Code:


http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/240312/Sunland_Park-US-SUN/1310

This is a prime example how an 84% market can still favour a layer.

The two favourites were a total of 84% less than the tote price!
If one is laying to payout the same figure on all horses in the market, one loses a massive 16% of the total outlay.

If one lays to liability, the greatest liability is on the first then second favourites, the rest should be winners. Given that they are 84% less than tote price, you cannot help but win.

As I lay only part of the field, which means I am laying the favourites and backing the longshots (effectively), I got 103% better than the tote price on the winner plus 84% less than the tote on the losers.

This is not a one off....

Code:


Here is the reverse, a 184% market:
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/240312/Sunland_Park-US-SUN/1400

But there is still huge value both ways.

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25th March 2012, 09:52 AM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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Chrome,

Where do you get tote Figures ?

also here were my prices for non-sp fixed odds on betfair:

TotalMarketPercentageBet=0.63
TotalMarketPercentageLay=1.11

1. ACTION DASHER = 29.0 / 7.8
2. COUNTRY KISSIN CHICK = 32.0 / 9.2
3. RIATA SPECIAL = 46.0 / 19.5
4. KL WAGON MASTER = 3.8 / 3.6
5. TWISTER IN THREE D = 46.0 / 20.0
6. THATSA FIRE CHICK = 85.0 / 21.0
7. CHAMPIONS LEAGUE = 38.0 / 11.5
8. RUN DJ RUN = 48.0 / 16.0
9. KOOL KUE COUNTRY = 5.4 / 4.5
10. FULL BATTLE RATTLE = 80.0 / 13.0

Looks like SP Figures end up somewhere in between the 1.11 and 0.63

How do you know how much to lay each runner for liability wioth SP as it can fluctuate ?

25th March 2012, 01:37 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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UB,

I use the same liability for each runner, so an unbalanced book.
The Betfair Timeform website gives you the BFSP vs Tote %.

I was laying the whole field, but a number of things have made me change my approach to lay only a third to half the field.

28th March 2012, 06:11 AM

jose

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CP can you expand on those thoughts please, as I was actually thinking of going down the same track.
My reasons were that the lays above a certain price were wayyyyyy over priced, and I am thinking it is BF themselves pushing them that way.
Any more input/confirmation from you would be much appreciated.
Cheers.

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28th March 2012, 01:39 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Jose,

That's my point.
I'm not sure why or who, but this has been going on for some months now.
I'm pretty certain it's Betfair themselves skimming but can't prove it.
It's happening in obscure markets as well and a Betfair user has also alerted to this.
When you push the entire market percentage one way or another, certain prices become undervalued and outsiders become way way overvalued.

28th March 2012, 02:47 PM

jose

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That is what I am seeing too.
I was going to put my cutoff at $13 or 12's in the old.
Would be keen to see where you are finding the point of balance is.

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28th March 2012, 03:06 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Jose,

This is a tricky one.
It depends on the actual price variation for a race.
Going in blind all races everywhere regardless, I'd say stick to laying horses in single figures.
My cut off is much smaller in some races, and much larger in others.
You have races in a field of 7 with an odds on favourite, or a Grand National where the favourite is 7/1. It's a tricky balancing act.
But it does work and you can't do too much damage as long as you are laying multiple horses and prepared to withstand some days where you cop a battering because they all salute.
Long term it is a guaranteed winner.

28th March 2012, 04:11 PM

jose

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Location: brisbane

Posts: 419

Cheers CP.
I may well drop to single digits to see if the bottom line improves.
I thought it was just me, but obviously not.

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Jose'.

4th April 2012, 04:14 AM

jose

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Location: brisbane

Posts: 419

Many thanks for the pointer CP.
I have now dropped back to only laying in certain races and only single digit lays.
The bottom line has improved dramatically as a result.
Just need to smooth out the ride a bit more so the nerves stand up.
Cheers.

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Jose'.

#10

4th April 2012, 11:58 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Sure makes a difference Jose.
And you're spot on this type of thing has massive ups and downs but always swings positive if you can handle the pressure.

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