Systems need a decent and logical Base, for example it may be based on Average Prizemoney. What filters you apply from this point in time must be beneficial to the POT. We all know the standard filters such as 1 to 4 in the last 4 runs, must have started within 14 days of previous run, must have won or placed on the track etc, etc, and ************ boring etc ..... You're going to end up with the same horse most other pounters have.

What can I do ??? Well you could start by doing what others aren't doing, and this doesn't mean to be so radical that you back the outsider or horses with form spell 000, you'll end up in the poorhouse BUT, you need to include a filter that most others wouldn't consider.

Let me give an example of my thinking - My horse has been selected on Average Prizemoney plus a few other filters ONE of which is Barrier 1 to 3 and it's odds are $4.50 - Hypothetically if it started from the outside barrier and because it usually races mid field it's chances of winning are less than if it had drawn barrier 1 to 3. HERE'S where we ditch the notion of "value" and pop in a new bit of vocabulary, namely "benefit". Are we benefitting substantially in $$$ from the horse being drawn in the outside barrier ??

Are we benefitting from our horse having to lump 60kgs and a weight tunraround of 5kgs to a horse it beat by 1 / 2 length last start ??

Are we benefitting from our horse being 0 / 7 at this distance ??

Are we benefitting from it's last start where it ran nowhere and was vetted ??

You've got to do just ONE thing different to the masses, and benefit from it substantially in the price. Look at a system as being a general indicator that the horse has "some chance" in this race BUT has one NEGATIVE going against it. Luck, I believe is under-rated in racing, and with a little luck, the one NEGATIVE might be wiped out early in the race if it gets into a good position, or a couple of the favoured horses bust their guts trying to get into a good position.

Get a horse that's in with a chance but has that ONE negative and the "Law of Averages" will end in your favour provided that you're getting a decent benefit for that one negative.

Lady luck plays a big part in race results, and Lemming Type behaviour will give you some juicy odds. After all, they've all got four legs, varying levels of fitness, varying degreees of ability .... Why get too scientific regarding the selection method when in the blink of an eye, your horses chances are snuffed out, and so could be the 2nd fav, the 3rd fav ..... yours has had a little luck early at 10 / 1 before the jump, and now in running is odds on !!

How many times has a decent "weight pull" come unstuck and the one dismissed by the weight experts come home at double figure odds.

And I'm not looking for a horse that had an unlucky run last start, for they too are what the Lemmings feed on ..... I'm looking for a piece of information that will turn punters off, even tho' the horse has ability and is probably up to the class, and still has improvement left in it (I use Career Starts 8...21, courtesy of sarge1), and wouldn't / shouldn't surprise if it won ?!

"failed due to track condition", "vetted", "surely faces a monumental task from this barrier", ..... these and many more pieces of "opinion" give you the possibly of a massive benefit in a non-scientific environment.

Barny.

Thanks for the post. However it creates some problems for myself when one is trying to broaden ones knowledge and mind bank.

I am starting to sound like a " Yes " man, by agreeing with the poster regardless of what view is taken.

By this I mean that when I came on here I also was looking for the angle that others overlooked. I have never been a favourite's man, although if they are the stand out then i will back them, but in most races I like to go a little wide and look for horses with the form but not todays following.

With my system I feel comfortable operating in the $4 to $12 bracket. I do not deliberately go looking for that bracket price but that is what normally comes up.

However, and with due respects to some others they believe you should not venture to far from the pointy end. They have much more experience then I have in this type of betting, so I have to defer to them.

So, he is the conundrum. You all know that I like value because I have started some threads about it and other relative subjects. And yet others are saying forget the big odds stick to the pointy end.

Now, he is a maybe solution which I have asked previously under various topics.

From an experienced System person is it possible and indeed wise to have one system mining for mid range winners and another that concentates on the Shorties.

Many on here have quite a few systems, do you see a compromise between the two.

Star

I've spent decades looking at systems and a couple of my favourites have been confirmed by a recent database purchase as goers. I have however, and much to my amazement discovered a new found uncertainty, as contradictory as that may sound after telling you my database has confirmed my systems. I say again that there's a fine line between winning and losing, but I suppose systems are like that. My favourite system has three non-negotiable rules, and to my amazement, even giving any one of these rules the flick, it goes from a 90% down to less than 10% POT. I find that amazing !!

If you can get your hands on old form guides have a look at the narrative about what the horse has done, or the narrative / opinion on what are it's chances. Then have a butchers at gear changes. Then see if the gear changes are made early on in this current preparation, usually gear changes mean an excuse for a last start failure. Lighly raced horses I beleieve respond better to gear changes.

Tongue tie on first time indicates that the horse may have choked up last start, and blinkers on first time are my two favourites. Again, look at gear changes within the first few runs this time in, and with lightly raced horses < 15 sts say.

A lot of systems these days seem to be based on Ratings, and as soon as ratings are taken into account you're taking unders IMHO of course !!!

I like price as a filter, and as I've posted previously, someone once posted about Geoff Murphy, that he backed his horses as long as they were 4 / 1 or better, he'd win because of his strike rate. The late Geoff murphy was an icon of the game. A couple of my systems show a negative POT when I filter for < $4.00, and show a healthy POT when my normal $4.00 to $30.00 filter is put in.

Hi Star
Bhags runs a 100 systems at once and I'm sure they throw up same selections in different price brackets. If they work at various positive levels then run 'em all I say. Value is found across all lines of betting but the instance of confirmation only comes from the winners bracket. Hope this makes sense. Have a look at the spreadsheet I posted today on 'per-post system'. I found value today in winners from different price brackets and perhaps exploited it a bit with the staking approach.

Star,
The main reason most punters lose long term is that they have no time or idea how to handicap a race in any meaningful manner.
Cheers
darky

Thanks for the reply Darky.

I guess that is my lot in life then. But, at this stage, my goal is to restrict my losses and to have an interest and try to finish even.

With system betting I seem to be able to do that better than random selections , trebles, all ups etc, eg I restarted system betting about five or so months ago. I have since withdrawn my starting bank plus a bit more and have been alive with no further addition in funds to the bookies.

Maybe, that is as good as it gets. It's a lot of fun and very thought provoking watching how some of the professionals and near professionals on here think and operate.

Star

Hi Barny,

I noticed 'Frisky No More' is nommed for Sunday. Could be a fair chance after coming home well over 1300 last start as your 'Smoky'.

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

It's easier than doing the form The Schmille, you can lose money without putting any effort into it.

If it's better than $4.00 I'll back it ..... My IAS service hasn't notified me that Frisky No More has been entered ?!

Frisky No More
Race Nominations
1 Jul 12 BALLARAT Country Showcase 0 - 68 Handicap 1600

1600 would appear ideal on its last run.

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty