POT from LOT... can it be done ?

eg turning a loosing strategy into a winner over the longer term by changing the way one stakes the selections, without changing the selection method itself.

Many times I have seen the merest suggestion of this gunned down on here. Can't seem to remember if anyone has actually provided the gunpowder to back up their stand being common sense, maths, statistics ??

That you, Blondie ???


Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I think it was Partypooper that provided this commonsense explanation originally. It went something like this:

Lets say you have a strategy that loses 3% on turnover. And you play this strategy over a long period, say 20 years to eliminate the chance of variance in the results. So over the 20 year period it loses 3% on turnover.

Now, over this 20 year period, the bets you have 1 unit on will probably lose 3%, and the bets you have 2 units on will probably lose 3% as well, and the bets you have 3 units on will lose 3% as well.... on and on it goes. No matter how you work it, the results will even out over a long period and the same loss on turnover should apply across the board.

Makes sense to me.

You should ask Useless Bettor how his sports target betting approach ended up.

It may depend on what you are doing. Maybe staking to win a set amount or laying to liability may be a better option as, in the case of backing, you are then putting more on the lower priced horses which, theoretically, should win more often than the higher priced ones.

Having said that you will still be winning or losing x% of races.

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Im still betting my harness and thouroughbred selections (and certain sports) using the fibonacci plan. But I have to admit its actually showing a very small level stakes profit though.

I have doubled the bank several times now without losing a bank yet. It will happen at some point but until then I will enjoy the spoils.

Do you ask for the Weather Forecaster to provide gunpowder?
Once the answer is provided by respectable and authoritative and knowledgeable ecksperts in the Field , then thats that.
You don't need to know how it works.
Just that it does or doesn't , and then move on to something useful.

Interesting feedback. Perhaps replace the 'You' with 'I' given that this would be your point of view (i.e. relating to yourself), whereas some of us are somewhat more inquisitive and like to get to the heart of the matter.

As far as I'm concerned.. this is useful to know - hence my question, and this thread.

Some very interesting feedback to date, thanks chaps!

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

LG,

It can be done with a small loss at level stakes and a high strike rate. You wouldn't want to be losing more than 5% though or it will hurt you and you need a very high strike rate to make it work (85%+).

These 2 things mean the inevtiable losing run is usually going to be few and far between and you can take advantage of the winning runs in between.

A losing run will come that knocks out your bank. It just depends on how many times you can double your bank before the losing run strikes.

Excellent input. Thanks UB.

I assume that being well over-capitalised from the outset and seeking superior dividends are crucial to pull off this kind of strategy eg 2-5 x minimum bank and BF SP ?

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

So you are a Professor of Mathematics then?
Show LG the bit about HOW IT WORKS , after all , that is why he posted the thread.

UB ticks all boxes in my book, having provided HOW IT WORKS on an earlier thread this year which I followed with interest, at the time. His update above is further clarification of how this strategy is still working for him = proof of the pudding. It is also in direct response to my question at the outset of this thread

As a credible source of information, there is ample proof on here - he rates at the very top imho

Cheers LG

PS If UB is Professor in anything, it would be as a senior academic of the high SR system with a gearing strategy and matching money management plan in place. Add to that a dose of realism and propensity to share his learned experiences and in these respects... yes, he is a 'professor'!

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB