Here are some figures for favourites first up from a spell (not including first starters).

First Up Favourites, Distances up to 900m
Selections 1,204
Winners 478
Strike Rate 39.70%
POT -0.51% @ Tote prices.
Best of three, Best of four, Betfair have to put it in good POT %.

First Up Favourites, Distances up to 900m, had at least one career win
Selections 548
Winners 220
Strike Rate 40.15%
POT 1.81% @ Tote prices.

Let's eliminate Dead, Slow or Heavy tracks, heavy weather for a first upper to tackle!

First Up Favourites, Distances up to 1100m, no career wins, Good track going only.
Selections 3,301
Winners 1,296
Strike Rate 39.25%
POT -2.68% @ Tote prices.

Again, Best of three, Best of four, Betfair have to put it in positive POT %

First Up Favourites, Distances up to 1600m, no career wins, Good track going only, Geldings and Entires.
Selections 2,835
Winners 1,083
Strike Rate 38.20%
POT -2.63% @ Tote prices.

All these marginal loss systems can bring into profit with the options for value a punter has these days.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

And with On Pace Runners?

No idea Darky, this is a set of plans that show very slim losses on favourites.
These days when you have access to best price, Top Fluc and Betfair, it's simply instant profits for the hobby punter, and even the big hitters.
It's also a way for people to see the basics and design their own rules with their own filters on top.

Here's another one:

Favourites, second up from a spell, Good tracks only, 4yo and older, Won last start first up.
Selections 2,812
Winners 1,046
Strike Rate 37.20%
POT -2.93% @ Tote prices.

Suddenly we have a nice arsenal of attacking favourites providing one can get better than one tote price offered.

Selections 10,700
Winners 4,123
Strike Rate 38.53%
POT -2.26% @ Tote prices.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg