http://www.williamhillplc.com/media...bets-on-grexit/

https://www.betfair.com.au/sports/p...ort/1.117087478
Just a sideline, I think it's tomorrow, not sure when for a "result".



Greece eventually goes back to the bailout programme:
55% likelihood.

Greece has a “staycation”:
25% likelihood.

Greece leaves the eurozone:
20% likelihood.

Lot's of "formguide" and opinions around



I think the "bluff" here is, they are demanding Greece lowers pensions and more pay cuts so they can get a payment. To those who demand this, the lenders, they just doing business and are not really that hungry, literally. They got $squillion$.

One the other hand, the Greeks are for real in the sense that to decrease pensions and reduce wages even more, ya gonna have a really ********ed off Greek,( plural) and perhaps "Democratic" Anarchy, this is a real possibility,( the man has gotta eat) long shot, but it can happen. Then it will have a flow on effect. Avoid at all costs.

So No, I don't think there will be a Grexit.
But I don't know what will be, this ain't happened before as far as I know.
If Keating once said, "the recession we had to have", perhaps this is one of those "had to have" things, in other words where does it financially lead to ? It's only money and numbers, the sky will not fall and the sun will rise the next day anyway.

From a twitter in Guardian
UK 4/1 to do a "Grexit" , hmm
If this happens it be like dominoes falling, "DominExit"

It's just numbers, sort of. People are suffering to, but...



My take on this, the concept of the one currency for all idea.

If, Australia and it's 7 states was once a currency for each state, it be a form of independence respectively.
If one state did well in trade, it's currency may do better than the other states in value.
When it needed to sell more production outside of it's state, in may lower the value of it's currency, or compete.

But Australia is not Europe.

In Europe, the value of the currency as Euro is the same for all member sovereign states.
If one state manufactured and sold quality cars, people buy them, but only one state does so, so that state reaps more money than the others who mainly produce high quality agriculture.

Let's say the agricultural state in Europe had a slump in sales due to international competition, another nation started to produce the same agricultural product, only cheaper, or cheaper to buy due to it's lower currency value.

What option has does the European agricultural state have to compete ?
It can't lower is currency value, while stocks of agriculture remain stored in abundance, except perhaps sell at a loss maybe or it past a use-by date.

Yet the cars are selling rather well in the mean time outside of Europe.

That I think is the, or one of the problems with the current structure of a one currency for all scenario.
One sovereign state can't trade out of it's tough times by lowering the value of the Euro currency for it's own solvency when times are tough.
It's the same value for all members states no matter where one is in the trade balance of things.

There is no flexibility between the European states to increase or decrease their own currency value to suit there current requirements.

Exit may be the only option out of this structural/mathematical catch 22/spanner in the works.

maybe, idk...,

I don't profess to know anything at all about this stuff (or much else for that matter ) but why did they all go to the one currency in the first place? Was it the beginning of this one world government thingy?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

TO
In a way yes, but prudent member nations like GB, Hungary the Czechs and many others would not want the Euro even if they were qualified for it fiscally.

It was a "courageous" experiment to quote Sir HA.

My understanding is the 'euro' came about largely due to tourism given the proximity of all the countries over there. I could be wrong but you think of how many people travel over there, to forever be changing currencies as you do 20 countries in 30 days and those kind of trips it just wasn't practical.

However were now seeing the effects of what also makes having one current not practical as well.

Same here, what got my attention is I happened to stumble on the betting in BF and one thing led to another, the news captivated things for a while, so in a way, because there is a bet not to be missed, but even the bookies have pulled out, they must know something at least, surely.
So I researched as if it's "form study" < roll eyes >
Then the actual history, democracy at work right before our eyes, as if we been transported back in time over a week.
How on earth can a nation call a referendum within a week, get ballot boxes ready etc, and then count the votes in 8 hours.
That to was a bet, the Yes or the No, and that to was too close to call.

How or why about the politics, that's for another forum, I don't have time. But this was a global thing on money markets as an observer not player yet it affects what I pay to eat-living principle.
There are similarities with betting to prices, decisions and factors make a buy/sell scenario, the opposite way round in our betting, the price goes down when favored, in stock market it goes up on demand.
One rather large number that got my attention was, A well known nation
lost 3 trillion on their stock market, 3 TRILLION within one month...that is an awesome number in dollars to lose, just because of the recent past events.
And to add, some profit from another's loss. BF ?

And they still debating the issue, grexit bets are not yet over.
Another piece of "form study" to consider a grexit is favorable is;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank

What this means, a new kid on the block, (BRICS), monopoly by the current world bank may have it's days numbered !

Okay thanks guys.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale