g'day gang,
back again after my annual 6 months involvement in sports writing which keeps me a bit too busy for serious punting...
( I must confess to popping in every now and then for a quick look see)

when I left I was trying to make the point that the general publics weight of money is the best assessor of form and I ran up against a fair bit of resistance. I notice that the tide has turned a little on this subject since then :smile:

Here is an interesting test for those who would argue against the public $$$$...

below is the form of a trotting race held recently - if you recognise the field, shhh dont give it away, if you want to have a crack at it as an exercise in punting skills go for it -
I have removed the horses names.

Can you tell me which horse should have won this race and why.
What factors would you have considered in picking the winner of this race?

The public picked one very clear favourite - and they were right.

Class of race - TR0 or better
1 HORSE A FT
LT: 7-0-0 TS: 5-0-0 LS: 2-0-0 LTS: $200
8 GEELONG 07MAY03 2100SS FT Chris Lang btn 13.4m wnr PAGE MISS GLORY (2:07.5), 2nd FAST DEAL , .
4 SHEPPTN 27MAY03 2710SS FT Chris Lang btn 6.6m wnr IMONETOO (2:16.1), 2nd PRESENTING ARMS , , used sprint lane.
7-14 G DERBY 07JUL03 2230SS FT br2fr TR0+ David Thuen btn 21.6m $14.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 10 br1fr (2:08.2,62.5,31.1), 2nd MALABO 10 br4fr, .
13-13 G DERBY 21JUL03 2230SS FT br3fr T0+ David Thuen btn 139.5m $15.00 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br1fr (2:10.1,63.0,31.1), 2nd WESTLAND NED 50 br1fr, , began badly, no action taken.
10-14 G DERBY 25AUG03 2230SS FT br1fr T0+ Ray Fewings btn 53.9m $2.00 fav wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 10 br2fr (2:08.1,62.6,31.7), 2nd BEAVER BROWN FT br3fr, , began badly, no action taken.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 HORSE B FT
LT: 17-0-6 TS: 14-0-5 LS: 3-0-1 LTS: $2344
4-10 G DERBY 14JUL03 2645SS FT br1fr TR0+ Dick White btn 19.2m $7.50 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br2fr (2:14.2,63.3,31.4), 2nd EARLY STRIKER 40 br1fr, , began badly, no action taken, tightened.
4-13 G DERBY 21JUL03 2230SS FT br4fr T0+ Dick White btn 5.8m $13.00 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br1fr (2:10.1,63.0,31.1), 2nd WESTLAND NED 50 br1fr, .
10-14 G DERBY 28JUL03 2230SS FT br3fr TR0+ Dick White btn 12.5m $18.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 30 br2fr (2:10.4,63.3,31.9), 2nd WHARPARILLA 30 br3fr, .
2-9 G DERBY 05AUG03 2230SS FT br1fr TR0+ Dick White btn 46.3m $9.50 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:06.6,61.3,31.6), 3rd BEAVER BROWN 50 br1fr, , pre race swab.
2-10 G DERBY 22AUG03 2230SS FT br1fr TR0+ Dick White btn 16.9m $13.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:08.7,61.8,31.2), 3rd RIVERLEA ONE 40 br4fr, , pre race swab.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 HORSE C ODS FT
LT: 25-2-3 TS: 10-0-1 LS: 0-0-0 LTS: $5284
4-12 G DERBY 18FEB03 2645SS FT br5fr T0+ Geoff Telfer btn 8.6m 9/1 wnr WONGALA JOLTER 10 br1fr (2:11.0,63.3,30.9), 2nd SMART DON NZ 10 br2fr, , three wide middle.
10-12 GAWLER 28FEB03 2170SS FT br5fr T0+ Geoff Telfer btn 49.6m $9.00 wnr FILLANO FT br3fr (2:11.9,64.2,31., 2nd SMART DON NZ 10 br1fr, , broke after start.
7-10 G DERBY 04MAR03 2230MS FT br2fr T0/T3 Geoff Telfer btn 14.1m $31.00 wnr NANNA BARB FT br1sr (2:05.8,63.1,31.6), 2nd YETTE NZ FT br4fr, , three wide middle.
6-12 KAPUNDA 09MAR03 2220SS 30 br5fr TR0+ Geoff Telfer btn 29.5m 20/1 wnr NATIONAL VINTAGE 10 br1fr (2:12.0), 2nd RIVERLEA ONE 40 br2fr, .
9-14 G DERBY 18MAR03 2230SS FT br4fr T0+ Geoff Telfer btn 43.5m $51.00 wnr DEMON JOE 20 br3fr (2:08.1,62.0,30.6), 2nd WONGALA JOLTER 20 br1fr, , checked at start, 3 wide latter stages.
Last Win G DERBY 22AUG00 2230SS 10 br1fr 3T0+ Ray Goble (2:16.5,65.9,32. 8/10 fav. 2nd DYNAMIC 30 br1fr, 3rd JOSIE GILBERT 90 br1fr.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 HORSE D 10
LT: 114-3-21 TS: 11-0-1 LS: 11-0-3 LTS: $13579
9-9 G DERBY 05AUG03 2230SS 40 br2fr TR0+ Katie Lobb btn 233.3m $41.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:06.6,61.3,31.6), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, , broke, broke.
6-13 G DERBY 08AUG03 2645SS 10 br2fr T0+ Katie Lobb btn 22.4m $71.00 wnr WHARPARILLA 20 br1fr (2:10.5,61.0,30.6), 2nd EUNICE FT br2fr, .
4-9 G DERBY 18AUG03 2645MS FT br2fr T0/T3 Katie Lobb btn 34.5m $61.00 wnr GALLEONS SON NZ FT br3sr (2:07.3,64.6,31.9), 2nd RIVERLEA ONE FT br2sr, .
8-10 G DERBY 22AUG03 2230SS 40 br1fr TR0+ Katie Lobb btn 70.0m $61.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:08.7,61.8,31.2), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, .
12-14 G DERBY 25AUG03 2230SS 10 br1fr T0+ Katie Lobb btn 99.6m $201.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 10 br2fr (2:08.1,62.6,31.7), 2nd BEAVER BROWN FT br3fr, , broke, no action taken.
Last Win WNMBOOL 22MAY99 2100SS 40 Gary Pekin , 3 wide early stages. 2nd CUDGEE LASS , 3rd CYCLONE WILSON .

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 HORSE E 10

LT: 68-1-8 TS: 25-1-6 LS: 12-0-0 LTS: $4038
4-9 G DERBY 11JUL03 2230SS 40 br2fr TR0+ Keith Routley btn 16.5m $13.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:12.6,62.3,31.3), 2nd MALABO 40 br1fr, .
10-13 G DERBY 21JUL03 2230SS FT br5fr T0+ Gary Buckley btn 24.3m $6.50 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br1fr (2:10.1,63.0,31.1), 2nd WESTLAND NED 50 br1fr, , began badly, no action taken, checked.
13-13 G DERBY 08AUG03 2645SS FT br1fr T0+ Gary Buckley btn 409.0m $11.00 wnr WHARPARILLA 20 br1fr (2:10.5,61.0,30.6), 2nd EUNICE FT br2fr, , broke after start, broke, failed to finish, stood down 14 days plus 1 trial.
7-10 G DERBY 22AUG03 2230SS 40 br3fr TR0+ Gary Buckley btn 68.4m $31.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:08.7,61.8,31.2), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, , 3 wide latter stages.
8-14 G DERBY 25AUG03 2230SS FT br2fr T0+ Keith Routley btn 50.2m $81.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 10 br2fr (2:08.1,62.6,31.7), 2nd BEAVER BROWN FT br3fr, .
Last Win KAPUNDA 01DEC02 2220SS FT br3fr TR0+ Keith Routley (2:11.9) 8/1, withstood protest. 2nd TENNESSEE JACK 10 br1fr, 3rd LAEN SAM FT br1fr.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 HORSE F 10
LT: 26-1-7 TS: 11-1-4 LS: 6-0-1 LTS: $3945
7-14 G DERBY 06MAY03 2230SS FT br5fr T0+ Scott Ewen btn 35.3m $7.50 wnr MR GEE NZ 20 br1fr (2:09.6,61.1,30.7), 2nd COUNTESA VIZZINI FT br4fr, .
8-13 G DERBY 21JUL03 2230SS FT br6fr T0+ Scott Ewen btn 12.5m $9.00 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br1fr (2:10.1,63.0,31.1), 2nd WESTLAND NED 50 br1fr, .
5-14 G DERBY 28JUL03 2230SS 10 br3fr TR0+ Scott Ewen btn 5.1m $31.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 30 br2fr (2:10.4,63.3,31.9), 2nd WHARPARILLA 30 br3fr, .
5-9 G DERBY 05AUG03 2230SS 40 br1fr TR0+ Scott Ewen btn 78.7m $10.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:06.6,61.3,31.6), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, .
2-13 G DERBY 08AUG03 2645SS FT br2fr T0+ Scott Ewen btn 9.3m $18.00 wnr WHARPARILLA 20 br1fr (2:10.5,61.0,30.6), 3rd THE PRECEDENT 10 br5fr, .
Last Win KAPUNDA 06APR03 2220SS 30 br2fr TR0+ Scott Ewen (2:12.5) 6/1, pre race swab. 2nd TENNESSEE JACK 40 br1fr, 3rd NATIONAL VINTAGE 20 br1fr.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 HORSE G RODS 10
LT: 39-3-4 TS: 14-0-3 LS: 0-0-0 LTS: $10071
7-10 GAWLER 20JUN03 2170MS FT br4fr T0/T3 David Harding btn 29.5m $13.00 wnr BLACK VENOM FT br1fr (2:08.2,62.8,30.9), 2nd NO NO YANKEE FT br5fr, , broke after start, out of draw in mobile starts, broke.
7-13 G DERBY 21JUL03 2230SS 10 br2fr T0+ David Harding btn 10.1m $21.00 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br1fr (2:10.1,63.0,31.1), 2nd WESTLAND NED 50 br1fr, , three wide middle.
6-9 G DERBY 05AUG03 2230SS 40 br3fr TR0+ Matthew Harding btn 90.9m $17.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:06.6,61.3,31.6), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, .
2-9 G DERBY 18AUG03 2645MS FT br2sr T0/T3 David Harding btn 18.4m $18.00 wnr GALLEONS SON NZ FT br3sr (2:07.3,64.6,31.9), 3rd THE PRECEDENT FT br1sr, .
3-10 G DERBY 22AUG03 2230SS 40 br4fr TR0+ David Harding btn 27.1m $31.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:08.7,61.8,31.2), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, .
Last Win CHARLTN 20FEB00 2200MS FT Robert Birthisel (2:04.6) . 2nd CEEDEE , 3rd CLOUD OF GLORY .

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 HORSE H 20
LT: 67-2-11 TS: 33-0-6 LS: 1-0-0 LTS: $4761
11-14 G DERBY 07JUL03 2230SS 20 br2fr TR0+ Bradley Scaffidi btn 31.4m $26.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 10 br1fr (2:08.2,62.5,31.1), 2nd MALABO 10 br4fr, , broke, checked and broke.
9-13 G DERBY 21JUL03 2230SS FT br2fr T0+ Bradley Scaffidi btn 18.2m $10.00 wnr BRARNIE HALL 10 br1fr (2:10.1,63.0,31.1), 2nd WESTLAND NED 50 br1fr, , checked and broke.
3-9 G DERBY 05AUG03 2230SS 50 br1fr TR0+ Bradley Scaffidi btn 66.7m $21.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:06.6,61.3,31.6), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, .
7-9 G DERBY 18AUG03 2645MS FT br6fr T0/T3 Bradley Scaffidi btn 59.4m $26.00 wnr GALLEONS SON NZ FT br3sr (2:07.3,64.6,31.9), 2nd RIVERLEA ONE FT br2sr, , broke twice.
2-14 G DERBY 25AUG03 2230SS FT br3fr T0+ Bradley Scaffidi btn 7.2m $31.00 wnr SUNNY FOLLY NZ 10 br2fr (2:08.1,62.6,31.7), 3rd BRARNIE HALL 10 br3fr, .
Last Win G DERBY 20JUN00 2230SS 40 br3fr 3TR0+ Bradley Scaffidi (2:22.0,63.1,31.1) 25/1. 2nd SOME SAY 30 br1fr, 3rd TIMELY DASH NZ FT br3fr.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 HORSE I 20
LT: 48-4-10 TS: 12-0-0 LS: 17-3-7 LTS: $16610
4 WARAGUL 14FEB03 2620SS 20 Dean Fisher btn 31.2m wnr MORNING SANDS (2:09., 2nd BRITE HOPE NZ , .
6 CRANBRN 20FEB03 2585SS 20 Dean Fisher btn 27.9m wnr BRITE HOPE NZ 10 (2:10.2), 2nd COACH TO GLORY , .
10 KILMORE 09MAR03 2150SS 20 Dean Fisher btn 70.0m wnr FAST DEAL (2:13.4), 2nd GUN OF A SON , , checked and broke.
8 CRANBRN 22MAR03 2585SS FT Dean Fisher btn 165.7m wnr EXUBERANT (2:09.3), 2nd POET LAUREATE , , jumped object, broke, no action taken.
9-10 G DERBY 22AUG03 2230SS 50 br1fr TR0+ Symon Kittel btn 80.5m $13.00 wnr ANDID 10 br1fr (2:08.7,61.8,31.2), 2nd THANKSFORASKING FT br1fr, .
Last Win WARAGUL 23AUG02 2620SS 10 Dean Fisher (2:12.5) . 2nd STARLIGHT IN VEGAS , 3rd TAMMER LANE .

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 HORSE J 50
LT: 81-8-15 TS: 7-0-0 LS: 22-4-3 LTS: $20934
10-10 G DERBY 21JUN03 2230SS 40 br2fr T1+ Darren Neilson btn 61.6m $51.00 wnr PETITE MAGIC USA 40 br3fr (2:07.3,62.7,31.4), 2nd CAPTAIN DALGLEISH 40 br1fr, .
r-14 G DERBY 24JUN03 2645SS 50 br2fr T0+ Darren Neilson $201.00 wnr PETITE MAGIC USA 50 br1fr (2:04.3,60.5,29., 2nd SOPHOCLES 60 br1fr, , inconvenienced, broke, tired badly, vet's examination after race, stood down 14 days plus 1 trial.
5-5 G DERBY 26JUL03 2230MS FT br1fr T3+ Geoff Neilson btn 16.6m $81.00 wnr TUNISIAN FT br2fr (2:05.2,60.8,29., 2nd FRENCH FILLE NZ FT br5fr, , pre race swab.
7-12 G DERBY 16AUG03 2230SS 30 br1fr T2+ Geoff Neilson btn 26.3m $101.00 wnr HONKY TONK HERO NZ 20 br3fr (2:07.9,61.7,30.6), 2nd SUNNY FOLLY NZ FT br2fr, .
6-8 G DERBY 23AUG03 2230MS FT br1fr T3+ Geoff Neilson btn 39.3m $151.00 wnr QUETZACOATL FT br4fr (2:06.1,61.8,31.0), 2nd TIMMO NZ FT br5fr, , pre race swab.
Last Win G DERBY 18MAY02 2230MS FT br5fr T2/T5 Geoff Neilson (2:09.9,61.5,30.2) 55/10. 2nd BRIDGEWOOD BULLET FT br1fr, 3rd IMA COP TOO FT br4fr.

-----------------------------------------

the point of all this?? :smile:

the punters obviously knew something other than what appears in the form guides and they had no problem determining who the best horse in the field was.
So why would any of us go to many hours of agonising effort to pick winners when
the work is done for us by people with a greater level of knowledge and information.

by the way, the morning newspaper did not have the winner as one of their 3 picks, nor did Late Mail get the winner and it was the 5th highest rating horse in the Q tab ratings for its race - yet the punters had it nearly 4 dollars shorter than the next selection.

I look forward to witnessing your punting prowess :smile:
can you pick the winner ???

see ya
Every Topic

Every Topic, Any punter following public opinion must go broke. The horses are always well under their true price and as 98% of punters are losing the smart thing to do would do the oppposite to what most others are doing and thinking. This is the 2% of winners.Most punters are easily led and bad investors which is their downfall.Most punters were taught how to bet from losing mates and parents, so if they use the same thinking, as nearly all do,they too end up losing.
Naturally in certain races they will have winners just as everyone does but will lose long term.

Late Mail,

Having spent a bit of time in TAB's, etc, I can state that "most others" are doing just about everything - ie. some punters back only favourites, others only back longshots, some go for the middleground and others appear to pick at random. So how, exactly, do you do the opposite of all this - surely the opposite of everything is nothing so I guess you win by backing nothing????

Every Topic is right in saying that the general concensus is pretty much correct - favourites win more often than 2nd favourites, etc. Having done a lot of analysis on this recently there is no doubt in my mind that the $1.50-$2.90 range is by far the easiest to make a profit out of. You might not get the big wins but you certainly don't get many bad days either and a nice consistant bank growth. You certainly can't back everything in this price range and expect to make a profit but a few simple filters and a very easy profit is there for the taking.

Spot on Every Topic & becareful! Big money aside, punting is many things to many people. A large proportion view punting as entertainment and are happy to pay for the thrill of a big win now and then. The biggest problem with favourite stats is that every race ends up with a favourite regardless of whether it's deserved or by default. Sort the two out and you can afford to find your thrills elsewhere :smile:

__________________
shy
Live, Learn, Love & Laugh!

Shy and Becareful,

I think I'm right behind you on this. I used to avoid races that I thought the favorite would win in [and the horse was usualy a low price] and go looking for "value" in another race where the Fav. wasn't so certain. Does that sound familiar to anybody?

After thinking about this, perhaps the way to go is to forget about the "value" races and start chasing those short horses. With a bit of a selective approach regarding field size, race classes and track condt. and doing the form on those horses, there are a heap of races out there to pick up money on and with a lot less work involved.

Looking for some software now to monitor prices on selected horses that I can set a bet range for odds and put the bets on for me with IAS [make this puter do some leg work].

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 09:01 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 09:02 ]

Interesting comments.
In the uk around 32% of races are won by the fav. 75% of all races are won by one of the 1st three horses in the betting.
Are there any statistics available for winning aussie favs?

i'll take a quinella thanks for asking with 3

G'Day EveryTopic,

Good to see you back, but didn't you once state that you saw horse-racing as "boring?"
Have you changed your opinion?
This spring should be the most exciting for a number of years.
Stars such as the mighty black, Lonhro...etc,ready to compete with the other established stars. Big money is already being invested on the feature events as interest builds-it should be a terrific spring, leading up to the Melbourne Cup.

Cheers.

Cheers.

i havent been to the trots sincr the melb showgrounds shut down now that was fun an amazing place great atmosphere the red hots looks your go to me good luck to you on the punt you wouldnt know if the rumor about gath and manning breaking up is right??

Gday Every Topic
I am not being sarcastic here but I admiire your skill on a key board.
What you posted would have taken me 2hrs to do with my one finger.

Cheers