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  #1  
Old 18th September 2003, 09:59 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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I noticed how some tracks I'm very successful at and others I struggle.

My order of profitability in Melbourne is:

Moonee Valley
Sandown
Caulfield
Flemington (a long last).

I did some analysis of the average win dividend on all races at each track.

Here are the average win dividends in order of best to worst which reflects my above theory.

Moonee Valley $$8.09
Sandown (all tracks) $$8.73
Caulfield $9.13
Flemington $9.67

No surprises for me!
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Old 19th September 2003, 06:57 AM
Every Topic Every Topic is offline
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this is a very interesting topic CP.

Did you also happen to note whether the rate of success of favourites at these tracks was significantly different?

I have been doing some digging into this from the trots point of view and clearly some tracks are more fav friendly than others. dont know whether its the track, or layout etc... or whether its the nature of the races and gradings that are more conducive to the best runner winning.
some days at Albion you just get fav after fav romping in even when the previous form is beyond human understanding.

on top of all this you also have the attitude of the individual race club and handicapper - I'm sure there is a running battle between the forces that favour greater predictability which would attract more punters and those who favour less predictability and are influenced by bookies - the only people in the racing industry who benefit from uncertain race results.

I am still ploughing backward in time in my researches so I dont have enough to post any meaningful data yet but its pretty obvious that some tracks and some race meetings provide more predictable results whilst others seem to produce a constant rabble of wild results.

be interested to know if others have gone down this path before...

see ya
Every TOpic
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Old 19th September 2003, 08:08 AM
Dale Dale is offline
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Field size would have to come into this,it seems to me Flemington always has the bigger race fields.
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Old 19th September 2003, 09:58 AM
umrum umrum is offline
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it's weird how it happens. it might depend on the racing patterns of horses you back.

the valley favours on pace and leading horse where flemington sets the leaders up.

i'm like Northerly the king of caufield!
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