Hi
I have been posting some ideas apparently out of the square with little response, however, here is a thought (not really a new idea) for a system based on consistency and fitness.

1. Eliminate maiden, 2yo and 3yo races.
2. Find the horse in each race which has the highest win %.
3. Find the horse in each race which has the highest place %. (It may be the same as in 2.)
4. If one of these is a last start winner that is the selection.
5. If both are last start winners halve the usual stake and back both.
6. If no last start winners then no bet.
7. Bet for a win only.

I believe that this plan can produce a long term profit or at least minimal losses and a lot of punting enjoyment.

John

This might dampen your prospects.

Enjay

Meetings considered : 1913
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 24.4%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 51.5%
Average Win Dividend : $3.53

WIN PLACE
Races Bet : 290 291
Races Won : 71 149
S.R./Race : 24.5% 51.2%
Outlay ($): 291.00 292.00
Return : 250.60 274.24
$ Profit : -40.40 -17.76
% P.O.T. : -13.9% -6.1%

LAST START WINNER TOP PLACE %


Meetings considered : 1913
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 22.7%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 45.1%
Average Win Dividend : $3.38

WIN PLACE
Races Bet : 365 364
Races Won : 83 163
S.R./Race : 22.7% 44.8%
Outlay ($): 366.00 365.00
Return : 280.60 287.78
$ Profit : -85.40 -77.22
% P.O.T. : -23.3% -21.2%

LAST START WINNER TOP WIN %

All above for Sys Mld Bris Adel Sat only for past 12 months.

As a general rule last start winners are overbet by the mug punters so represent poor value. There are some exceptions but generally speaking avoiding last start winners is a good idea.

enjay and becareful, this is exactly the sort of stuff that should be coming from this forum, thanks heaps! I'm re-thinking my "last start winner" strategy's that's for sure!

In general it is more PROFITABLE (not necessarily strike rate) to bet on horses beaten by less than a length than last start winners.

Class is a huge factor as well.
Try running last start winners in blacktype races only less than 30 days beaten less than 1 length up to and including winners.

:wink:

Gunny,

I think the idea of win% and place% or last start winner and margin etc. could be given more meaning if you included say, amongst the four highest averaged winnings horses per race. What this does [mostly] that W%, P% and last start win, second or even margin [alone or even togeather] dosn't do, is sort out the class in the race.

Last start win, margin or W% etc. says nothing about a horses chances when there are runners moving up or moving down in race class, as happens in most races.

Average earnings per race sorts out the class and win% lets you know how good the trainer is at selecting the right races [considered the dis., track condt. and class of the race etc.] for the horse.
Last Saterday most of all metro races where won by horses from the top four averaged earnings horses. The class factor.

All these numbers also let us know just how many poor trainers there are out there who overate their own [training ability] and their horses ability to win the class of race [and dis. and cond't] they have chosen for the horse.

Other filters aside, class must be sorted out for any system to be a performer. It is the number one consideration.

Race exclusions you have chosen are good but if you check your records [I'm assuming you have them] for win/loss performance, you will add, 1000m or less races, fillies and mares, 3yr. olds until the end of Nov., races over 1800m, hurdles, less than class 4, transitionals [nsw], track condt. worse than dead, Night and Sunday races, all cups and stakes races and probably the last race on any card at any meeting.
These are all loosing races that it is [mostly] impossible to make a long term profit on and drag down overall profit. I know that takes out most of the spring carnival Sat. races but this is the time of year the TAB and Bookies make a killing [meaning most punters are taking a hiding]. There are still plenty of other races to bet on.

Generaly speaking, the more races you cover the less you will win. I do bet on a lot off that list for the action, but my bets on all those races are peanut money and serious money never goes near them. My Melb. cup bet every year now is a $5 win bet [won it last on Rain lover, a three horse boxed tri.!] and a pub sweep [wife won it last year and I had 2nd. but we lost the tickets while ...issed as that night].

Cheers.




[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-29 08:12 ]