Here is an update of Hawkes first up runners.

Rules:
Trained by John Hawkes
Spell of greater than 30 days
Must not be a "first starter"
Must have won first up before

Selections: 79
Winners: 15
Strike Rate: 18.99%
Average Dividend $10.86
Profit: $83.90
POT: 106.20%

There were four selections last weekend, but no wins.
I am posting this because it's a nice one to watch, but I don't believe it will hold up long-term.
It's based on the Trainer's record and to a lesser extent the Horse's.
All the profit comes from two outsiders, so it's just nice to monitor from time to time.

Chrome Prince,

If you get the chance could you look at Hawkes and say all his runners which start over 10.0, 15.0, 20.0. He appears to get a number of winners in this range but how many others are there.

thanks in advance.

thekey

The key,

Do you mean all runners over those prices or first uppers only?

Let me know and I'll post what I have.

CP,

I meant all runners, but a comparison with 1st-up as well would be OK, if you have the inclination.

thekey

thekey,

You're lucky...I have the inclination today :smile:

May as well go the whole hog, so here we go!

All Hawkes runners - no price filter
Selections: 822
Winners: 124
Strike Rate: 15.09%
Loss: -$30.70
POT: -3.73%
Average Dividend: $6.38

Comment: Using DiviPlus or similar, you could certainly eek out a small profit, as I've quoted TAB prices here.

All Hawkes First Starters - no price filter
Selections: 57
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 12.28%
Loss: -$13.00
POT: -22.81%
Average Dividend: $6.29

Comment: Forget it!

All Hawkes First Up - no price filters
Selections: 179
Winners: 23
Strike Rate: 12.85%
Loss: $28.90
POT: 16.15%
Average Dividend: $9.04

Comment: all the profit comes from 2 bolters at huge odds, don't get too excited :smile:

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - no price filters
Selections: 765
Winners: 117
Strike Rate: 15.29%
Loss: -$17.70
POT: -2.31%
Average Dividend: $6.39

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filter $1.00 -> $5.00
Selections: 253
Winners: 75
Strike Rate: 29.64%
Loss: -$22.40
POT: -8.85
Average Dividend: $3.07

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filters $5.00 -> $10.00
Selections: 249
Winners: 26
Strike Rate: 10.44%
Loss: -$62.80
POT: -25.22%
Average Dividend: $7.16

Hawkes Runners - no first starters -price filters $10.00 -> $15.00
Selections: 89
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 7.87%
Loss: -$6.10
POT: -6.85%
Average Dividend: $11.84

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filters $15.00 -> $20.00
Selections: 57
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 5.26%
Loss: -$3.90
POT: -6.84%
Average Dividend: $17.70

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filters >= $20.00
Selections: 125
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 5.60%
Loss: $89.50
POT: 71.60%
Average Dividend: $30.64

Comment: If you're looking at this area, it's a rollercoaster ride - be prepared for six to eight months of losses before the big cahoona hits.
It may not even happen and you'll be left with a wad of useless tickets.
All the profit came from 1.5 runners.
It may never happen again.

Now I'll get onto first up from a spell of 30 days or more. All these will be non first starters though, as the initial analysis proved it's pretty useless including them unless you have access to inside info.

Hawkes first up - price filter $1.00 -> $5.00
Selections: 49
Winners: 15
Strike Rate: 30.61%
Loss: -$0.50
POT: -1.02%
Average Dividend: $3.23

Comment: I believe that using DiviPlus and only possibly one further filter, this could be profitable over time.

Hawkes first up - price filter $5.00 -> $10.00
Selections: 46
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 4.35%
Loss: -$30.60
POT: -66.52%
Average Dividend: $7.70

Comment: Hopeless.

Hawkes first up - price filter $10.00 -> $15.00
Selections: 22
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 9.09%
Loss: $0.20
POT: 0.91%
Average Dividend: $11.10

Comment: only 2 winners to go on, could go any way in the future.

Hawkes first up - price filter $15.00 -> $20.00
Selections: 15
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 13.33%
Loss: $22.60
POT: 150.67%
Average Dividend: $18.80

Comments: Sounds like this should be included in the glossy brochures - BUT only 2 winners, probably won't win in the long-run.

Hawkes first up - price filter >=$20.00
Selections: 49
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 6.12%
Loss: $55.20
POT: 112.65%
Average Dividend: $34.73
I'll take direct debit :lol:

Comment: same as above - pie in the sky really. But a fun system if you play for fun with $1 bets etc.

SUMMARY:
In summary I think the best potential is to apply some further small filters on first up from spell horses that are well fancied, bet using Diviplus and you have some high strike rate profits. I'd investigate some of the minor losses further but avoid the profitable ones where all the profits come from one or two horses, just not viable to have any confidence in future results.

I really wish I had a database that was at least ten times the size of my current one, so I could draw some more reliable data.
We'll have to wait.

Hope this helps.

(P.S. please don't ask me to compare all the trainers, it took me over an hour to type all this). :lol:

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-09-16 16:08 ]

CP

Top effort that!
Pretty much confirmed what I thought. You make a very valid point re: small sample sizes though.

To me the most amazing stat is that from over 800+ runners there is only a 3% loss. This obviously is aided by a few big divvies... but still. I would suggest that very few trainers could sustain such figures long term with so many starters and over 4 states.

Hi thekey,

glad it's appreciated.

If you notice eliminating first starters brought the loss to only -2.31% LOT.

Getting the best (or better than TAB) prices makes it profitable.

As you say the sample size is a concern and so are the two or three extraordinary dividends which skew the results a little.

I'll come back and update this in a few months.

chrome prince,
when i originally started this thread i meant first up after a "spell" of 3 months or more.....can you do stats on that??
cheers, noel

Hi guys interesting stuff.

A while back i noticed a trend with the top trainers to spell a good young horse after it gets a win it's first preparation,these horse when given a bit more time to mature turn out to be among the stars of the stable.

I suggest backing them with increasing stakes untill they win or backing these horse at level stakes untill theyv'e had about 24 starts as by then their best is usually behind them.

In keeping in line with this thread if you only backed Hawkes horses that are first up after a spell and are coming off a last start win a profit might be the end result.

Hi Dale,

Interesting idea you have there.

Here are the results based on your theory...

Hawkes trained runners only
Selections: 21
Winners: 5
Strike Rate: 23.81%
Profit: $22.90
POT:109.05%
Ave Div: $8.78

Too small a sample size to call, so here's the same for Gai Waterhouse...
Selections: 19
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 15.79%
Profit: -$1.90
POT:-10.00%
Ave Div: $5.70

Not too bad, but here's Tony McEvoy...

Selections: 24
Winners: 4
Strike Rate: 16.67%
Profit: -$4.90
POT:-20.42%
Ave Div: $4.78


_________________
"Cut your bets when in a losing streak and increase them when running in a spasm of good luck". - Pittsburg Phil

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-09-18 17:12 ]