60 races
16 winners
27% strike
3.36 ave price
53.7 total ret
-6.3loss level stakes

Ok how do i make $60 over 60 races using a staking plan returing losses as well.
I know what all of you will say ( level stakes only. I would be intersted if someone can help me.

Cheers

Good 4th, you have a LOT of about 10%, this could possibly be reduced to break even (about) using Bettadivi (or the equivolent) at this point it is probably possible to turn a profit using a conservative staking plan. But in my experience 60 races is nowhere near enough to evaluate, you need more like 1000 to get a true idea, good luck

Good 4th,

Ask a silly question and you are likely to get a whole heap of silly answers.

You are asking for "magic" to make an ordinary performing set of selections produce a remarkable profit. Take it from me...there is no way anyone can present a plan to you that will turn such performance around in the manner you are requesting.

Sure, you can make up something that might work miracles on that batch of selections you are talking about, but it will only be because of the particular order thoses winners and losers fall and the dividends of each at that point in the sequence. Any plan like that is unlikely to hold up over the next 60 selections and I can just about guarantee it won't hold up in the 60 after that, the 60 after that etc.

Okay, now that I have said my bit on that, I will try and offer some advice that can help you.

1. I don't know what your dividends are based on, but if it is only TAB or SP then work harder to get a better price. Explore all options for each bet including Betfair, bookies and best of the three totes. If I calculate my profit on turnover from my own betting against what it would be each year based on only TAB or SP, the difference is about 10% POT. This is thousands of extra dollars a year.

2. The best way to bet is to have more on the horses you think have a better chance of winning and more on those where you have a greater advantage over the market. Assuming you know why each of these selections should be bet on, try staking based on your confidence about the winning chance.

3. Finally, try and eliminate some losers. Getting rid of 5 or 6 losers from that group will see you just about break even at level stakes. Review the circumstances behind each bet and try and understand why some horses won and why some lost. Develop some strategies to limit your play and avoid some of the losers you would oherwise bet on in the future.

The last two of these strategies require judgement and decision making on your part...but thats what is needed if you really want to make money. A selecting and / or betting approach where you don't have to call on your own judgement or decision making is a total waste of time...perhaps not from an entertainment view point and your hobby of punting, but certainly from a money making perspective. The game just doesn't work like that.

Cheers :smile:



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-02 10:27 ]

Looking at your figures i would say you are mostly backing favs.....if this is the case you need to bring in some rules to cut down on false favs because the price they return will never make you a profit...there is one staking plan you could try....

http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

i have never realy given this a go...but i have been told by many people that it works

osulldj, good stuff there, but I don't think my answer was THAT silly really, get the best price, and use a greater test period???

Hi Party,

I think your answer was spot on. At the time I started typing there were no responses to good 4th...then when I posted, magic! Your's was there.

The silly answers I am referring to are from those that will jump on and suggest good 4th try some crazy scheme of bet sequneces with rules about when to stop and what price horses to back etc.

You may like to try this.

1)Only back those selections of yours if the whole field has had 2+ career starts.
2)Only back your selections if they are paying $3.30+ at jump time.

Staking
Bet to win a fixed 5% of bank using a Min divisor of 3/1 & a Max divisor or 6/1 so as to get any overs.
We do not try & recoup losses from the past races.

E.G. Bank is say $200 @ 5%=$10 Target say its price is $3.40 ,the min div is 3 ,so we place $3.00 on it , & it looses,
Next race price is showing $8.90 ,we Target $10 divided by the max divisor of 6=$2
It WINS ,return $17.80
Total O/L $3+2=5

Our target in this exercise will be $10 for each race ,not adding losses.

If you feel you know when to stop on a bad run of outs ,say 10 in a row then start again once a winner gets up,using a progressive plan so as to recover all losses, I would target to win no more than 1% E.g.$200 bank is $2.00
Using the same Min & Max divisors.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks for your replies,I have sampled thousands of races and just picked that one day, also have strike rates pot, roi,etc..
Im intrested in the staking side of things and different approches to these ideas with different strike rates % just to see if the maths side of things has an edge.

Cheers

Wow if thats how many bets you had in one day no wonder your strike rate is so poor.....you will never come out in front like that....trust me when i say this...choose your races no matter what type races you like you should have no more than a dozen bets in a day and that is stretching it to the max i personaly try to limit it to 5 only at carnival time will i have more bets....this is not to say that if you have multiples in a race thats fine but just only have the 12 races

I think Good 4th. is looking for a staking plan that will work on his figures. Sadly there isn't one or everybody would be a winner.

What could be achieved though is a staking approach [choose your own if you don't like level stakes] with a few 'progressive' betting rules: No odds-on or worse than 6/1 and rule out betting on the usual suspect races [ maidens, hurdles, 2yr. olds. and less than handicap class or worse than dead condt.] that due to the amount of bets going on, are obviously being wagered. These silly races will undo and rob any worthwhile handicapping effort as a whole and send you broke eventualy.

There are those who can make money at odds-on and even betting silly races and condt. but these areas are best left for those who have the specialization in these areas to turn a quid. You could try larger bets but less of them as an aid to not betting on silly races/odds/condt. They can be a hard habits to brake. Could try seperating the bets into 'serious' and 'interest' amounts if you just can't help yourself and ignore [ or better still record them seperately so you can see just how silly they really are ] the small interest bets in your records. Go through your records and seperate out the silly race bets and check your new totals from what is left [ you should see profit ]. Great aid in treating silly races as 'interest' bets only in the future.

Betting on stupid races is the main reason [ amongst many ] most punters loose year in year out. It is no coincidence that race meeting are 'loaded' with unbeatable races and especialy the first 4 or 5 on the card trying to get your money [ that is just itching to have a bet ] early before it stikes value races and bets. And boy, does it work well as a statergy !

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-03 08:48 ]