Questions?????I dont understand how level bettors can make a profit, as how do you know how much you will make for the day and when do u stop if you're in front, what to do if you're behind for the day. At least with Target betting you know all of this, lets say you target $100.00 for the day you know where you are at all times and yes using progressive betting as I believe this is the only way to recoup losses and make your target along the way...
Lets say you had a strike rate of 10%, 10 out of 100, one win every 10 bets you could make your target without getting into too much strife...Level betting could not do this, get my drift?
Imagine if your strike rate was higher, 20%.Thats 20 out of 100, Your target would have been achieved earlier.. so you could pack up for the day.
You might have some long run outs which will have to be checked out against the bank
So as level betting again, how do you return a profit??????
Thanks for listening

You return a profit by backing winners!

If you can't do it with level stakes then sooner or later your target betting will break your bank. Keep working on the handicapping skills until you get that right and THEN worry about how to bet them. That is the only way to make a long term profit in this game.

PS. If you cant do it with racing then have a look at some of the sports packages on this site - bookies margins on sports are much lower so it is easier to make a profit with the right information.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

i'm with you good4 if you uderstand the risks and work within certain perameters punting this way is ok by me. but there will be many smarter than me who would disagree.

mmmmmmm, just 2 pennyworth, I was also attracted to the idea of Target betting, and if fact did actually operate an idea that worked without breaking the bank for almost 2 years, but then the crunch came and I was wiped out. So now I am still interested but VERY wary, all can say is that if you have working bank with a maximum that you are prepapred to lose but more than one bank available. Then MAYBE it can work , in other words say you have a bank of $1000 (+ 2 reserve banks) and your target is $20 a day, working from day to day, always going back to $20 aim after a win, but if you lose the bank of $1000 then stop, and start again with a new bank. But one thing for certain is that no matter what your bank, sooner or later the dreaded losing run will break it.
I have some ideas that I incorporated as safety breaks, if your interested post your e-mail and I'll send em down the line.

Becareful is dead right. If your strike rate is not good enough to make a profit at level stakes, no hair-brained progressions or target betting will save you in the long run. 'Recouping losses' should be forgotten and seen for what it is, a loosing stratergy.
More time spent on handicapping skills [often the least considered problem] and less on twisted staking formulas is obviously the first step requiring attention. Looking for winners in the $2 to $6 range, the second step towards a profitable return at level stakes for anyone that considers a 10% SR [looking for winners in the wrong odds range] good enough to keep out of trouble.
There is nothing wrong with specializing in longer price range winners [above $6 ], but until a profitable ability at the shorter end is achieved that proves handicapping skill, longshots should be left well alone.


Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-23 13:10 ]

If one is going to take up any progressive betting idea , it is wise to set up a rule for when to stop betting for the day .

A rule I have found to work very well ,is to stop betting on the day, once you have struck 10 loosers in a row for the day ,then start afresh the next day ,but this time ,trying to recoup a 3rd of the outstanding target + 1/2% of bank, once achieved, go for the next outstanding 3rd+1/2% of bank & so on .

I use divisors 3/1 min & 6/1 max.
Depending on their price at jump time.
This means if my selection is 10/1 at jump time on the TAB,I will bet it as if it is 6/1 max.,if it gets up ,I have secured overs.

On a good day ,many winners can be found targeting the 2nd & 3rd Tab favs at 1 min to jump time & backing the one with the-

1) Best career place % (1st,2nd,3rds).or

2)Any other mini handicapping method in your arsenal,for separating 2 horses.

You will find they all seem to work on their day but be prepared for when they dont work on a given day.
e.g. 10 outs in a row, on the day then stop , it`s not going to be your day.

Only bet on races where the whole field has had 2 career starts or more so as to avoid lower quality,lower class ,less exposed form, races.
This also helps reduce the long run of outs ,which is the killer for all progressive staking plans.

If you are target betting ,it`s an idea to start you target at 1/2 percent of the bank or less ,any higher & you will soon see how out of control it can get,if the wheels fall off.

Here are some mini handicapping plans to separate the 2 horses,which have had some excellent results.Using progressive betting.
1)Best place %.
2) Best av.prz.money.
3) Bet the widest barrier of the 2 .
4)Best last 2 placings once added together.
5)Bet the horse with best jockey according to the jockey table as shown on the AAP racing site.
6)Bet the one with best Neurolongarithim Rating as per AAP.


I would be interested to hear what other punters use as mini handicapping plans, to separate 2 horses.The simpler the better.

__________________
Cheers.

If you can seperate 2 runners you can do that with 16 runners. Seperate into 8 lots of 2, eliminate one from each and then 4 lots of 2 and repeat above until 1 runner is left.

Other methods for splitting 2 runners might include the best 600m time [or best averaged], the most prizemoney last prep. or more simply the horse who has won the biggest 1st. prizemoney last prep., the best trainer and out of left field, pick the horse that is having a gear change [if applicable] or the one that has traveled the longest distance from it's home track to race.

Cheers.

I prefer to consider punting as an investment in terms of growing the pool funds. This being the case, I only consider flat betting on the day while progressively (compounding) managing the pool long term. I suppose that working with a strategy that demonstrates a hit rate of 45% win / 78% place does make this approach a little easier.

Jon

If you think about it, in the long run progressive staking is really a series of level staking plans run concurrently. The problem is the run of outs as discussed elsewhere in this forum. A 1 in 10 strike rate really needs to be able to sustain a run of 50 outs to be 99% sure of success. Target bettors make me want to take up bookmaking (unless they target odds at level stakes).

I also have a problem with trying to improve one's handicapping beyond a certain point. I feel there is a limit to how well anyone can predict winners through handicapping methods. People have been trying for years and only a very few have succeeded and that is because they have found an angle no one else is using. Also, most punters have the same information and hence come up with the same selections in the main, and these selections are priced accordingly, and hence are unwinnable in the long term.

Rather I feel to be successful at punting one has to pick the winners that very few other punters pick and hence get over the odds. I try to do this but really have to play off bookies and the TAB to get top odds to make any consistent headway. Either betting medium by itself leaves me with a break even system.

Happy analysis

If you have lost say $200 over a series of 10 or 12 bets, why try to get it it back in 1.I would aim to get it back over 7 or 8 and then start over.