Not a good week. Over the past seven days there were 11 races for 6 winners producing a loss of $0.20, and a loss of $3.90 for place betting.

Since 6 March (4 weeks results), there have been 47 selections for a profit of $17.50 (37% POT) on win betting, and $1.00 (2% POT) on place betting. NSW TAB dividends.

Last week there were 6 selections where the gap was 5 points or more. This produced 6 winners - a 100% strike rate. Since 6 March there have been 25 of these 5-pointer selections for 18 winners (72% strike rate) and 23 placegetters (92% strike rate) The profit on win betting was $13.60 (54% POT) and on place betting the profit was $4.30 (17% POT). This shows that the 4 pointers suffered a loss over the past four weeks. So from today I'll only list the 5 pointers-plus. There won't be much action, but hopefully it will maintain a high strike rate.

Only one selection today:

Wangaratta R7 no.1 - Lecerbrac

Two selections for my system (Place betting has showed a small profit each week):
Wangaratta R7 no.1 - Lecerbrac
Wangaratta R8 no.4 - Majestic Flush.

Wow thats a hell of a win strike rate...you could use parlys with that to increas profits....are you still going for horses that ran a placeing last start at least 3 runs from a spell and in the top 3 in betting....the betting part might be not so important because with a 5 point clear gap i can't see any of these being out side the top 3 and if they were they would be a good selection

Hi, Shaun.

Yes, it's been a brilliant strike rate over the four weeks, but that's no guarantee that it'll continue to perform. We can only hope! Today's selection will now probably crash.

Yes, the selection must have placed at its last start and be in the top 3 outright faves in the pre-post (I use the Telegraph which seems to be quite accurate). the selection must have also have had at least two starts from a spell.

Sometimes Unitab ratings can be puzzling. It's difficult to understand how some horses can be allocated 100 points, even with a 1 point gap over the next selection. Some 5 pointers have not been high in the pre-post market, and most of these have not performed well.

Michael,

After looking at the Unitab ratings for a while, I think I've worked out something. I think quite a large part of the horse's rating is actually based on it's best run, not it's most recent run. In other words, a horse may have had a really top rating run three or four starts ago and done very little since, but they still end up top rated. As a result, you'll often see the same horses on top of the ratings week after week, based on one great performance in their previous form. You would think that might be a flawed method, but it does often result in good priced winners.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-04 12:26 ]

I will do msome test of past results useing these rules....if it keeps to an ok S/R i will be happy...i was following your tips but there were a few tomany for me with a few to many losers but this looks good...i am happy with 6 bets a week if they are good

MichaelG

Thanks for your continued work/monitoring of your system.
I know youv'e probably covered this, but in these 5+ selections that you are now posting, are all types of races under consideration ie 2yr olds, maidens, open etc.


Thanks again
Cheers!

Yeah, I might have a bit of a look at it too. I certainly don't mind only having 1 bet a day, if the strike rate is good. Only problem is some of the dividends might be in the Lonhro / Special Harmony price range though. I guess you wouldn't mind if they were that good! :smile:

Hi, Shaun.

If you are going to do some testing, I will list the rules of the system in case they have been deleted from a much earlier posting.

1) 5 points gap on Unitab.
2) Only races with 8 to 12 starters.
3) No Maiden or 2 Year Old races.
4) No Slow or Heavy tracks.
5) Must have placed at last start.
6) Must be in top 3 pre-post outright faves.
7) Must have had least 2 starts this campaign.


Hi, Peakster.

Only Maiden and 2 year-old races are out. There may not be enough information in these races for Unitab to factor into their calculations - so we've ruled them out. Last Saturday's only selection was in a Hurdle race - and it won.

Hi, Sportznut.

Yes, there are some pathetic dividends, the majortiy of them have paid odds-on. Not one of the winners equalled or were greater than their Telegraph pre-post prices. All of them, without exception, were under the expected/quoted price. Today's winner paid $1.70 but was $2.50 pre-post, and there weren't any scratchings. Today's winner is the ninth consequetive winner. To be able to say that the system picked 10 successive winners would be quite a feat - let's hope the next selection wins!

hi michaelg , thanks for printing the rules again, which is why it knocked out ballana r7-2 which was 3rd outright fav. also the courier mail had launceston r5-10 czar rule as 2nd outright fav. was there something else that i missed?, thanks.

Alblyn,

Yes I think Czar Rule was an oversight - it met all criteria outright 2ND FAV at $5.00
Congrats MichaelG - 10th straight winner - LEGEND!!!

Cheers