I have got Geelong for final-8
$1.65 ($2.60) $20

I have St.Kilda for premiership
$2.20 ($3.85) $15

I have St.Kilda to make grand final
$1.55 ($2.10) $20

Didn't find any value for round 8

AFL Round-9 goes like this.

Geelong final-8 ($1.40) $20 @ $2.10
Kangaroos final-8 ($1.75) $15 @ $2.75
St.Kilda premiers ($2.05) $15 @ $3.25

For the weekend I'm going a treble.
Port ($1.22) $1.48
Lions ($1.60) $2.15
Blues ($1.55) $1.80

My price ($3.00) Got $5.50

So does that mean you backed St Kilda to win the GF last week, and you've backed them again this week? I generally make almost all of my futures bets pre-season and leave it at that. I may have a couple of extra bets during the season if I think certain teams are really good value, but I'd never thought of actually making futures bets every week.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-19 19:40 ]

For super 12s I did both. I had 4 futures preseason, and picked up futures on all but 2 other teams (crusaders and blues). All were percevied as value at the time. Result was I ended up a hell of a lot of profit over the last few weeks just hedging. I'm letting my $12.50 future on the brumbies ride though.

Yo Sportznut
If I had the willpower,I would be a strictly AFL punter.But the temptation gets the better of me.
If I could get someone to hold my hand I'm sure I could make a profit consistently every year.
So anyway,after every weekends games I analyze what happened.
I modify my ratings for each team and then calculate my prices for all forms of betting,AFL.
Then midweek I look at what prices are available and look for what I consider the biggest overs.
I try not to take less than 15% overlay and also try to limit to 3 bets.

St.Kilda for premiers,I have in fact backed 4 weeks running.I would say that by September,I will have backed them 15 times.

I also took Kangaroos at evens after they won 3 straight,then prepared to write off that ticket.Lo and behold they're back!.
I didn't fancy them last week at $4.50,but now the $2.75 looks just fine.
The game is on the field.Betting is no game.If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping.

Mo.

Mr J,

What if the Crusaders win? Does that mean you get nothing and make a BIG loss?

That seems a little bit strange to me. I backed St Kilda at $8 earlier in the season. If I back them again now at $3.25 or something, I'm lessening the % profit and also making the potential loss greater if the Saints don't win. Anyway, I hope it works for you.

What's the highest price you've got on the Saints this year? I'm still kicking myself that I didn't back them at $15 back in February when I took them to make the 8 at $1.80.

Hey Sportznut,
Drifting off the post.
Answer your reply under Post "when to bet"

Mo.

"What if the Crusaders win? Does that mean you get nothing and make a BIG loss?"

No. Just the 1 unit riding on the brumbies winning. All other futures were hedged in previous weeks to produce a profit no matter what happens. E.g, the 21.00 I had on the chiefs, I took X% of that potential payoff and bet on the brumbies. For the sharks at 150.00, I laid them over a few weeks and produced a VERY nice profit off them.

The brumbies future is basically a free bet, and it would cost me potential EV to hedge it since it's the fave. Course, I could use 1.00 of that 12.50 to back the crusaders and profit no matter what, but that's sacrificing EV for the sake of variance/distribution.



"I try not to take less than 15% overlay and also try to limit to 3 bets."

I'd like to point something out. Most of the time you think you have a large advantage (i.e. over 15%) you probally don't. It's usually smaller or not an edge at all (maybe you missed something the bookies didn't).

As long as you are more accurate than the bookies over time you should be betting anytime you think you have an advantage. If you want a buffer, I'd go lower than 15%, maybe 5%.


"If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping."

Not sure if you're talking about yourself here or making a general statement???

[quote]
I'd like to point something out. Most of the time you think you have a large advantage (i.e. over 15%) you probally don't. It's usually smaller or not an edge at all (maybe you missed something the bookies didn't).

Mr.J Do you know what I am doing when I make a bet?
I am saying to the bookie,"Iknow more than you about this event,and here's my money to prove it".
If I'm inaccurate to the degree of more than 15% then I would be better off playing tiddlywinks with my children.
This 15% is my buffer.If I'm 10% wrong I still profit over time.
My idea is maybe the bookie missed something that I didn't.


"If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping."

Not sure if you're talking about yourself here or making a general statement???

Free advice is all.
Cheers - Mo.