What’s the most important factor when it comes to analysing a race?

I personally think that the race shape is, because you can figure out where ‘your’ horse will take up the running, i.e. handy or mid field. You can tell what the early and late pace is likely to be and where it will come from. (Will there be a speed duel and if so, how will it affect the outcome? Can those horses gap the field and sneak away?). You can spot potential ‘spoilers’, i.e. horses that may cause interference to your selection. You can identify which horses can run the ‘real time’ of the race based on historical data. If the race average, for the track, distance, ‘class’ and track conditions (good, dead, etc) is 69.05s, what’s the point in backing a horse that has only run 70.63s under the same ‘conditions’?

Obviously there are many other factors to take into consideration, but I think the (potential) speed of the race is most important.

Has anyone else got an opinion? What do you think is the most important factor and why?

Look forward to your comments

recent winning form.
listed or group horse.
dropping weight.
ala qualo, osca warrior, reigning fort.

I don,t think there is one single factor that holds more importance than any other you just have to way up all the factors effecting your selection and be comfortable with your decision.

You have to be able to be honest with yourself after a race and still be happy with your selection process even if you do your money (hard skill) Remembering that just because you missed the money doesn't mean you chose the wrong play.

With so many races in Australia run as sit and sprint affairs, I must say that backing horses who can find a position just off the speed from a good barrier are the ones I'm always keen to be on.


Good Punting.....dundas lane.

On 2004-08-30 19:56, FOOFITA wrote:
You have to be able to be honest with yourself after a race and still be happy with your selection process even if you do your money (hard skill) Remembering that just because you missed the money doesn't mean you chose the wrong play.
[/quote]

Foofita, I totally concur.



Dundas, your right. Races in NZ are pretty similar, except the jockeys here 'walk' until the last 600m. In USA a few years back and they just don't let up. It's almost like a continuous sprint for 1600m.

That shape of the race stuff makes great reading. Tell me, how often does your pre-race analysis reflect what actually happens when the horses leave the gate? Half the time, most of the time, sometimes?
The most important part of my pre race analysis is rating the strength of the previous races each horse has been running in. I use a system a bit reminiscent of Don Scott's ratings but I don't rate a race blindly according to the class or whatever - I rate it according to the previous performances of all the horses that are in it.

Kenny, good points there.
So far it’s 67% accuracy and this is due to a reasonably predicable style of racing here in Gods Zone (otherwise known as New Zealand). Today I rated 5 races and 4 of those had the pattern I predicted. The anomaly was Doc Holiday; normally a handy runner he inexplicably got back and couldn’t make up much ground in heavy going. Still 3 winners: $4.95, $5.45 and $5.65. It’s not infallible but I work on the basis that the selection should be either a front-runner or is always handy before I add any further criteria. My times (and sectionals) are all class (field strength, distance) and track based, and throw in track condition into the mix. Note I have to do my own sectionals off the video because sectionals aren’t recorded here. I have other criteria or filters i.e. weight, jockey, fitness, etc that each selection needs to pass before I get to putting on ‘price’ on it.

If you’ve got any more questions, I’ll do my best to answer them.