Hi everybody, have been reading your posts for a bit and there seems to be some knowledge amongst you. I am a newbie and have a question.

My main interest is greyhound racing because of the consistency (in number of participants...). I have come up with an Excel spreadsheet with each dogs projected finishing time and metres behind the leader. All looks good at the moment with results and whatever, but I am interested in pricing these dogs chances so I can bet on each dog.
Any ideas on how to frame a market after you have come up with your finishing order?

Hello newbie.
I'm having a shocking run regarding selections,but have the solution for your framing market.
You have your dogs in order of margins or times.
I work my markets out on predicted margin from the expected winner.
Don Scott said to use lengths or kilos,but with dogs you can use lengths or times.
Always start by giving your predicted winner 100 points.
At a length behind the winner,the selection gets 66 points.
In greyhounds there are 16 lengths to a second.So a length is 1/16th of a second or .067 seconds.
With mucking around with numbers,every .01 of a second you think the dog will finish behind your top selection,decreases the points alotted by 6%
So if you think the dog will finish .13 seconds behind your top rated selection,It gets 45 points.
The formula is 100 multiplied by 0.94 to the power of margin in hundredths of a second.
So in this example,0.94^13 is equal to 0.45.
And 0.45 times 100 equals 45.
Do this for all dogs,then add up the eight totals.
Divide the dogs rating into the total and you now have the minimum the dog needs to pay on the tote to be a betting opportunity.
It's easy once you know.
If you are still interested but haven't quite understood,please ask.

Hi

In greyhound racing its very important not only to find avg. time but also the Standard Deviation for each dog, then you can use the Normdist within Excel to formulate your probabilities.
All you would need to do is know the avg win time for that grade an track an use that as the Mean figure in the formula.

I prefer to use Monte Carlo simulations as i invest in exotics as well as win/place.

Thanks moeee. That is exactly what I was looking for... Still trying to put it into excel at the moment to come up with correct results (race 1 started today before 12 as did beer 1... lol ).

woof43... Your comments have been noted also but at this stage all I am working on is the past 3 races as given in the formguide of tabracing.com.au....
I have to type in the form at the moment as I don't know of any software or downloads to get the form of every dog in a race. This is time consuming so all I am prepared to do.

Please keep the comments coming though, as they say: knowledge is power...

You can use the web query function in Excel an download the entire form of every dog in Victoria at the GRV site

Seriously?? How do I go about that?
I know you can download a greyhounds history into excel but can you do it for a race at a time?
Please explain...

You would create 8 seperate .iqy files one for each dog,this would be done in a text editor program like Word etc.
Then open a sheet in Excel an then using the Macro record function you would go about running the 8 individual .iqy files save the macro an save sheet.
Then all you would do is edit the 8 .iqy files with new dogs names then go to your Excel sheet an run the download Macro

Thanks woof43, will check it out tomorrow..

Moeee, got it all sorted now. I have a couple showing about $1500 in Whiskey Assassins race tonight.. Glad I'm not a bookie....

Anyone thats interested, Whiskey Assassin (Shepparton R8 No.5), I have winning by 10 lengths... trifecta 5/8/1,4

Ooops.... 5,4,8 trifecta paid $79.50....
Pity..

Bit stiff there BJ.
Might pay you to box your placegetters with the Special to win next time.

Curious,please do not release your secrets,how you came up with 10 lengths as your estimated winning margin.
On heat times it was less than that,but more significant was that he was never going to get an unobstructed run from Box 5 as he did in his previous starts from the pink.
Perhaps deserved a penalty of a couple of tenths.
Well done anyway.Nice to have more greyhound people about to share wisdom.