STAKING TO WIN

Most punters spend 99% of their time trying to find winners. Betting smart is just as important but attracts about 1% of a punters attention. This page will help you sort good staking ideas from bad and maybe help you maximise your winnings at the races.

1. STAKING PLANS

A systematic approach to wagering is essential to long-term success but many popular staking plans are flawed and extremely dangerous.

The Martingale System is almost as old as racing itself and on face value seems sound. It is simply betting enough on each selection to win back all you have lost in a sequence of bets plus your initial target. For example if you are 20 units behind in a betting series and your profit target is 25 units and your next bet is a $5 chance, you stake $11 to profit $44. This recoups your 20 lost and just about gets your 25 target.

Clearly the problem with this method is the dreaded run of outs. A sequence of 10 losers straight if betting $5 chances is likely to happen regularly. The 11th bet would be some extraordinary amount of money that most bookies wouldn’t accept in order to win the modest target that was originally set. Obviously a dumb way to bet.

Progression betting methods of varying types are similar to the Martingale in that they expect a winner on a regular basis. Unfortunately it isn’t always so neat. Building your bet size up as a losing streak lengthens is both psychologically tough and mathematically stupid. Some selection and ratings “services” pin their hopes for success on progressive staking. They clearly have no faith in the selections and hide behind some convoluted bet placement scheme, which cannot and will not turn losing into winning

There is a mathematical formula known as the Kelly Criterion that calculates the “correct” amount to wager on each selection based on winning strike rates and average winning dividends. Originally designed for casino games, it has been adapted to the racetrack but it is also flawed.

Kelly tells us to bet a certain percentage of the bank on each selection and the figure is adjusted after each bet. The bet obviously decreases after each loser as the bank is decreasing also. When we finally crack a winner, we are staking the lowest amount since the last winner. The bet size increases after the winner but unless our very next bet also wins, we are on the downward spiral again. Kelly is typified by placing bigger bets on losers and smaller bets on winners. There seems no logic to this method.

So what's the answer Baco60?


Monkeyinjapan

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So you don't like a staking plan where you bet more on winners than losers, and you don't like a staking plan where you bet more on losers than winners.?

I guess you just don't like staking plans....

Anyone that is getting winners does not need the staking plan, until one is in the front.
Once you made your money, only then you go for the staking plan to protect your winnings.
Cheers
baco

You don't have to use a staking plan, if you have a good system it should return a profit at level staking.

You should not consider using a staking plan until you are playing with the Bookies Money.

well for most that will be never...

there have been many plans mentioned here that are safe & just as importantly, can provide the wayward punter will a level of discipline he has been lacking, & which is essential in this game.

Baco,

I started reading with interest your post, but it left me with no answers.
Correct me if I am wrong but you are saying that there is no staking plan that is any good unless your method of selection is producing a level stakes profit.

Is that right?

Hi Top Rank,
What I am saying, what is a point of having staking plan if you system is not producing profits?
There is nothing to protect.

Gday all

this is an age old argument... can a staking plan turn a loss into a profit... the answer is a resounding yes, provided you arent too far away from breaking even with your selections

AS an example my last 380 top rated selections have returned level stakes 98.37%.. ok that is a loss of nearly 2%... Using the 9/4 staking plan that I found in the archives of this very forum those same 380 selections have returned a profit of 28.14%.. which isnt too shabby.. that is a S/R of 25.26% or 96 wins.

If you want to use a staking plan.. fine.. equally if you don't wish to use on that is fine too.... each to their own

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

XPT,
Good one, not that I use staking plans but just proves Bhagwan does come up with some good ideas, bit different to what some person on this forum says about him.

Cheers