For as long as I can remember, Brisbane has always been a gret place for longshots and poor for favourites compared to Sydney and Melb.

I wonder why that is??

Possible reasons:

# Media coverage of provincial racing is not as good? Therefore, horses with ability sneak into town without much notice?

# Briso punters aren't as well informed? All that XXXX clouds their thinking?

# Some horses can't handle the heat and humidity?

# Difficult to compare Sydney/Melb horses with the locals during the winter carnival? This only explains 2 mths of results though.

# Hard tracks jar a lot of horses?? Some of the favs can't handle it??

# Lack of champions provides a more level playing field????


Any thoughts/ideas?????

if we knew the answer i suppose we would make more money.
but winter is off season to southern horses some good trainers in brisbane area and some good competetive tracks around the brisbane area. many winners have very good form so there is no respect for reputations.
e.g. winner of todays rocky newmarket won last start drew 5 and dropped a kilo ($26) well worth a ticket.

"all that XXXX (& other substances) clouds their thinking" certainly applies to most of the people I knew when I lived in Brisbane (for one year)! But before all you Queenslanders get upset, I'm very fond of Brisbane and I always go for Queensland in the State of Origin!

I think a lot of punters tend to back horses they know, i.e. the local ones, therefore when horses that have won at the strong provincial circuits of Gold and Sunshine coasts, they are often ignored.

Re: Sydney - you can get good longshotwinners often from horses that have run well at Newcastle and Canberra (I don't really like Kembla form!)

By the way, how do you define longshot? 10/1 or more, 50/1 or more, 100/1 or more? If you mean just 10/1 or more, it's probably simply just a case of Brisbane often having much larger fields than Sydney & Melbourne.

Who knows?

PS: I agree with Chief that Pukeko will go well!

I had a look at the data for last year and I think that the Brisbane longshots is just a myth. Here are some figures for the 2001 year based on Tabcorp divs:

AVERAGE WINNING DIVIDEND:
Doomben $8.00
Eagle Farm $7.66
Flemington $10.61
Sandown $7.99
Randwick $8.50
Warwick Farm $7.87

WINNERS OF OVER $15
Doomben 12.7%
Eagle Farm 10.4%
Flemington 17%
Sandown 10.2%
Randwick 13.5%
Warwick Farm 12.7%


So the greatest number of longshots is actually at Flemington - Brisbane is pretty much in line with the Sydney and Sandown figures.

Melb does have its fair share of longshots.
I mean 20/1+ when I stay longshot.

I think those avgs for brisbane are distorted by short priced horses - even money etc.

Melb probably has more in the $10-20 range, but it seems Brisbane has more in the $20+ range, with $2 winners distorting the avg.

Anyway, if one can get onto a few of these, it don't matter where they are.

I looked at a bigger sample size and there is no real difference between the number of longshots between states. The following figures are for the Saturday Metro race meetings in each state from the start of 2000 - between 900 and 1000 races in each of Melbourne (Flemington, Sandown, Mooney Valley, Caulfield), Sydney (Rosehill, Randwick, W.Farm, Canterbury), Brisbane (Eagle Farm, Doomben) and Adelaide (Cheltenam, Vic Park, Morphettville).

NUMBER OF RACES M=1027, S=946, B=914, A=914

AVERAGE DIV M=$8.47, S=$8.38, B=$8.41, A=$8.47

WINNERS $1.00 - $2.00 M=4%, S=9%, B=8%, A=5%

WINNERS $2.10 - $5.00 M=39%, S=39%, B=40%, A=43%

WINNERS $5.10 - $10.00 M=33%, S=29%, B=29% A=31%

WINNERS $10.10 - $20.00 M=17%, S=15%, B=16%, A=13%

WINNERS $20.10 - $30.00 M=4%, S=4%, B=4%, A=4%

WINNERS OVER $30.00 M=3%, S=4%, B=3%, A=4%

As you can see from these figures there is no major differences in the winning values between any of the cities particularly in the "long shots" categories over $20.00


[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-06-15 17:33 ]