Has anyone looked at Tipster's selections as a way of working out a price to bet to collect a predetermined amount?

I have a "stable" of 35 Tipsters which I use to determine horses to consider.

Has anyone else tried this approach?

OK

Thanks for the reply Partypooper (Ha Ha), great to see you are still going strong, especially in these difficult times.

One thing I have noticed with using the Tipster's selections is how the Jockey plays such a significant part when backing the selection. I have found that jockeys you would expect to win fall short time and time again. Others you would not expect, as they are not in the top Jockey group, continually deliver victories.

I am talking about Melbourne races, but I am looking at Sydney races as well (but very early stages)

Do you use the Retirement Staking Plan? (I may be wrong but I think I sent you a copy of the spreadsheet a few of years ago).

TTA

G'Day TRY,

Yes still here, NO MORTGAGE, but no private jet YET ! with the tipsters thing, you know they do pretty good all things considering. I've found that just deleting ALL odds on and ALL HEAVY tracks improves that bottom line.

You can can get many breaking even Or a bit better. You can improve that into profit using BFSP, or better still using BET BOOSTS etc, but best of all is using BET RETURNS. Question there of course is how long will you get away with THAT!? hahahah!

I remember a thread on here once that said something like look for the odd man out or back the tipsters second pick if you had 10 or more.

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Thanks for the replies guys. It seems there is very little discussion going on now-a-days which is more the pity.

One aspect I have looked at is

1. Only considering the first 5 races on Saturday Melbourne meetings.
2. In Race 1 back Tipster's top selection for 1 unit a win
3. If a winner, pull up stumps, job done
4. If a loser, in Race 2 back Tipster's top selection for 2 units a win
5. If a winner, pull up stumps, job done
6. If a loser, In Race 3 back Tipster's top selection for 3 units a win
7. If a winner, pull up stumps, job done
8. Continue through Race 4 and 5 stopping at a winner or betting 4 units or 5 units.
9. Maximum loss is 15 units per meeting

Most Tipsters have a positive POT% after upto 80 meetings (some Tipsters have less meetings due to holidays etc, and me finding newer Tipsters to include).

Although not actual Tipsters, among the worst performers are horses with highest win%, highest place % and horses with highest average prize money. LOT are -27.4%, -35.0% & -40.4% respectively. I find this quite interesting as Win%, Place% and Average Prize Money are areas often used to zero in on horse selections.

Prepost Favourite currently has a 12.9% POT (62.9 unit profit on 487 unit turnover) which may substantiate the theory more favourites win on earlier races.

I appreciate any comments.

TTA

Shaun, is it possible to scrape data from Sky's new tipsters site, in Python?

Or does anyone know if it can be done in Python?

I have a couple of theories I'm testing, but it is very time consuming. Sat, 15 meetings, takes forever manually.

Any help would be appreciated.

Unstable

Tipsters have great runs and very poor runs, Dean Lester used to be great, but he's been struggling very much lately. There was an article where if the CURRENT tipsters are in form, and they all agree on a top selection, then it is a good bet and amazingly they're not all favourites.

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Tipsters are a bit like Ratings. They are someone's Opinion. I know of one tipster in NSW, that tips, the first 4 in the early market every day and get's paid for it. If the fav has a good day, he has a good day. You are right, Tipsters are hot and cold, just like horses, how does a horse, beaten 32lens in 3 starts, win the next start at 100/1?

Ratings are the same, someone's Opinion. If you take a set of rules and give each rule a value, you come up with the best horse, 100 rated. If it is the best horse, it will be the fav. So why not just give the fav 100 points, that's my opinion! Saves a lot of work.

As we all know, backing fav's will send you broke. Bookies and Corporations have already drop the prices on these horses, way below the chance factor.

So how do we win, well it is your own opinion in the end. The algorithm you come up with, is a start. Allocating point to varies Rules, to start your algorithm, could look like this, Market 50 points, 50 to the fav, then 40,30, 20,10 and 5 for the rest. Win in this Class, 30, Place in this Class, 15 points.
And we continue with a few other Rules for Points. Now we have our Opinion or Ratings.

That's fine BUT! There is not one Computerized Algorithm that will stand the test of time, In My Opinion. I have been doing ratings for 25 years, millions of test and they all fail the test of time, they go great for a Month or two, then 0/7 the next day, 1/8 the day after, WHY! Horses are no machines, they can be moody, for bid, the Jockey has a bad day, he let's the horse go back to last and wait's for gaps on the rail, that never appear and so on.

I do my for analysis with all these area's in mind. Look at the Jockey, is he hot or not? Is the horse is going up in distance and down in class? Blinkers First Time? These and other form factor's I use to determine my Opinion and value I'm getting for that Opinion, makes up my mind, whether to wager or not. Not Tipsters.

I am currently undertaking a linear regression model, but need to add some factors, most importantly up or down in class or same class. With 23 and a bit years of data, I think I can definitely create something with a long term profit for backing or loss for laying. Blinkers first time, gelded etc is not something I have a record of, but still, I think I can come up with something using pure mathematics. In form jockeys and trainers win, but they also lose and that's where I think the profit is. For Example September Run in the William Reid was way over the odds at $17.00, she'd finished 3rd in the Group 1 Newmarket at Flemington beaten only 0.6 lengths and was going over the same distance at the Valley from a Good4 to a Good3.

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