Hey guys, new to this forum but not new to betting or staking plans.

Wondering if there is any interest in Formula 1 betting here?
Pre-season testing you can find some excellent odds given the slow response from Australian agencies in particular. I find they are slower to respond to breaking news than those based in Europe/UK (as you may well expect).

For instance, was able to get Hamilton @$8 and Rosberg @$18 in February to win the World Driver's Championship. WDC favourite Vettel was very short at ~$2 given he'd won 4 on the trot.

Three races to go, mathematically there are only 3 drivers who can win the WDC. Realistically, only one of the two Mercedes drivers will win, Hamilton and Rosberg. Hamilton leads by 17 points (25 points for a win).

From combinations of agencies they are priced at:
1.35 Hamilton
4.00 Rosberg

Giving a 1% arb.

With Rosberg on pole in Austin, and Hamilton suffering from brake issues which may carry into the race, Nico has a good chance of closing the gap.

If Nico wins, expect the 4.00 to come in significantly.
If Hamilton wins I wouldn't expect too much movement.


Love to hear your thoughts.

Sorry double topic when I refreshed, could the mod please delete one of them.

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

After Lewis ' win in Austin, Ricciardo is now out of the WDC.
It's now a two horse battle between the Merc boys, Lewis and Nico, with Lewis leading by 24 points (1 race win is worth 25 points).

Two races to go, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. The latter is a double points race so the Championship is far but over with still 75 points to play for.

Odds for both Merc boys are as follows:
1.20 Hamilton
5.70 Rosberg

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

Depending where you 'shop', you can get:
1.20 Hamilton
6.20 Rosberg

The Brazilian Grand Prix is this weekend, with the current forecast for a storm across all three days of the event.

Brazil is usually a chaotic race at the best of times, so in the wet with the current crop of high-torque F1 cars, we should see quite a few upset results.

There may be some excellent value bets for qualifying and the race.

I will make a final prediction after watching practice but except to see the unlikely Toro Rosso pair of Kvyat and Vergne punch about their weight in qualifying.

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

Hi Playlife,

GOOD to see another sport come to life here mate. Also one that i follow! I am a bit confused however. If the championship is still very much up for grabs if i have read you correct, why has Rosberg drifted out to 6.20 as per your earlier post today. It looks like its almost a 'done deal' with Hamilton a very short odds on fav??

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Well, if Hamilton has no mechanical problems, then he will almost certainly win. But that's a big if. You never know what can happen. He has been favourite pretty much all the way through. Even earlier in the year when Rosberg was leading, Hamilton was favourite.

Two things I am aware of here. Those two hate each other and when this happens the likelihood of one driver shunting another out of a race INCREASE. More so in the run home to the championship and irrespective of whether they are on the same 'team' or not, if there is such a concept in F1 these days?

If the odds on Rossberg continue to drift, might be a bit of value there I reckon. Nice thread Playlife and good spot Sportz!

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

World champion Nico Rosberg has announced he has retired from Formula 1 with immediate effect.

The 31-year-old German won his first world title on Sunday, beating Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton by finishing second in the final race in Abu Dhabi.

"I have climbed my mountain, I am on the peak, so this feels right," Rosberg said.

Rosberg won nine of this season's 21 grands prix, beating three-time champion Hamilton by five points.

"For 25 years in racing, it has been my dream, my 'one thing', to become Formula 1 world champion," he added.

"Through the hard work, the pain, the sacrifices, this has been my target. And now I've made it."

The son of Finnish 1982 world champion Keke, Rosberg made his F1 debut for Williams at the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2006, finishing seventh.

And when asked if there was any chance of a return, Rosberg added: "No definitely not. End of story. Done."

By Andrew Benson
Chief F1 writer

Shock news indeed with Nico's retirement.

Given the sweeping regulation changes for the 2017 season, I expect to see some good value next year.

I am tempted to place a few bets PRIOR to pre-season testing, and then making an assessment post pre-season testing for the season proper.

I expect Red Bull lead by Adrian Newey to have a fair crack at the WDC next year which is expected to be a more aero formula.

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

interview following Nico's retirement announcement
some interesting stuff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTjovArrtqI