If its about finding Overlays , where would you look?

Could it be the Favourite?
The Favourite , the animal that everyone wants to back.
The animal that most likely has all the available data pointing to it winning.
Could it be the Favourite?
I think not.
In fact , if you were looking to LAY an animal , then amongst the Favourites would the most likely contenders be found.
The more data available about an animal , then the more likely that that animal is either at the correct Odds , or has been overbet.

How about this.
If given 100 Even money Favourites , is it an easy task to eliminate 50 of these Favourites without throwing away more than 25 Winners?
I reckon I could do it , but I don't know if I could well enough to make a Profit.

Then there is the other choice of say $5 shots.
If we had 100 of these runners , could we do as well or better than with the Even Money Group?
To do as well , means we need to be able to eliminate 50 runners without eliminating more than 10 Winners.
Again , I reckon I could do it , but still not well enough to make a Profit.
But that is if the $5 shots were all in different Races.

BUT HERE'S THE THING.
With the Even Money Chances , these are more than likely in different Races.
And each of them will be at Even Money , because a lot better judges than I have made them so.
BUT , with the $5 shots , there is often 2 or even 3 animals , and not unusual to find 4 in the same race.
So what is happening here , is that those a lot better judges than me are having doubts.
And when there is doubt , there is the potential to get it wrong.

I'm gonna have a play in this thread making suggestions as to where the Overlay might be found.

What I'm doing is knocking up some Markets that may have innaccuracies amongst some of the contenders.
These innacuracies manifest themselves as certain runners appearing at way over the Odds.
But thats fine.
These are usually animals that will be well bet and will be either at the correct Odds or Underlays and of no interest.

What I'm trying to locate are animals that are amongst the group of runners with some sort of winning Chance , but are available at exaggerated Prices.

I have zero ability at predicting what Prices animals will be available at so I won't be suggesting which animals to bet on.
But its not difficult to find the animal if it is there.
It stands out like dogs balls.
It is usually the only Overlay in the race.
Often scenarios roll up where there are more than 2 Overlays in a Race.
These are not Overlays.
They are caused by a Massive Wager on a certain runner.
And usually these massive wagers are very educated.

Here's Race 1 at The MEADOWS

4 KILTANON SKYE $4.1
3 ELLEN BALE $4.2
5 YOWYEH $6.7
1 ATELIER $7.7
2 LASTING EFFECT $10
7 SCUSAMI HOTEL $12
8 SISCO TURBO $25
9 INDIGO FLASH Res. $33

If you look at the way the Odds are grouped I have 2 excellent winning Chances and 2 Good Chances , then 2 more capable of causing an upset.
So in this Race , a substantial Overlay is needed to overcome the Openness of the Race.
But be intensely aware of when there is more than one overlay.

Meadows Race 3

5 DYNA CARI $4.1
7 HODGE $5.7
8 IRVINE BALE $6.4
1 PARISETTE $7.4
6 HARBOUR ROSE $12
3 OUR LISA $12
4 ROCKADORE $15
2 WHERE'S CLEO $16

There is a smooth transition in Odds here from the top selection to the 4th selection.
Many many Winning Chances and the Overlay needs to be almost a double Overlay before becoming eligible for a Wager here , but seems the sort of race where there will be one.
My guess is the Pink , only because all the others can't possibly be available at double the calculated Odds.
But my guess is worse than yours.

Meadows Race 4

5 CORAZON BALE $3.6
1 BATTLE ROSE $3.7
3 ETHEL BALE $5.7
4 WILD ARMS $10
7 EL RIO $14
6 KEEP ME COVERED $16
2 SONADOR MISS $25
8 ARVO'S STEFAN $66

The 3 Winning Chances here.
Unlikely to find an Overlay but some possibility of Battle Rose


Meadows Race 5

3 COSMIC COOPER $2.1
6 RICH SHIRAZ $6
8 CRONOS BALE $11.5
2 SUPER RICO $12
7 PLANKTON $16
9 WICKED MAGIC Res. $20
1 BOGGY SPITFIRE $25
5 KIMBA BALE $30

Just slamming the top selection here.
Only concern that it arrives too late over the 525 as its pet distance is 600.


MEADOWS Race 6

4 FLIP BALE $5.5
5 RYKER BALE $6.2
7 TIGER GLOW $7
6 EVERYWHERE $7
2 DARLIN BALE $7
1 TAKE IT HOME $10
8 GLENDA BALE $14
3 MR. SHARP $16

Good Race to stay out of.
But we shall see.

Unfortunately the top selection was a Massive Overlay and lost badly in this Race.

I'd suggest that if you wanted to LAY a dog, the fave is your only option. Looks to me to be very little money trading on the dogs.

In the gallops, I somtimes lay something at say $21, I may have priced it at $61 for example, and if I'm convinced the BF market price is wrong, I will lay. No way you could get set on the dogs.

So Mo, how do you price these markets. Some sort of speed ratings? I'm almost interested in learning about the greyhounds but don't know where to start. I fool around with speed ratings on the gallops, and I'd have thought that method is suited to the dogs.

Interesting thread.

Imagine Moeee, you classified each of those Even money dogs, say by variables that the public use for wagering, would an even money fav that has the Best L5 avg ART of the other 7 dogs, be a better proposition, than the Best Class avg L5 start dog.
It would make your task a lot easier in which dogs to eliminate, I'd suggest