I wonder if anyone who's been jockeying for best prices for a while could give a few tips to an amateur.
I've been running half a dozen screens for a few weeks now balancing the three tabs and best div against the fixed price offered by various online bookies looking to get the best price about my selections. Are there any golden rules for this sort of thing?
I had a horse a few days ago which was real short with the bookies and much longer on all three Tabs so with about ten minutes to go I said "Buggar it, I'll never get a better fixed price", plonked on the best div and went and made a cup of tea. Lo and behold the horse paid 1.90 best div and the bookies finished at 2.55.
The only general trend I seem to notice is that real short favorites on the Tab, like 1.40 to 1.80 ish seem to lengthen in the last few minutes and favorites about the 2.50 upwards seem to shorten. I'm guessing the mass of favorite backers plonk on the favorite if it's long enough and don't bother if it's too short.
Any general advice or observations on the science of getting the best price would be greatly appreciated.

KV

Hi KV,

I find it best using TopFluc for horses under $3, and MaxiDiv (any of DialaBet, SportingBet and Centre Racing) for those likely to be longer. For anything more than $10, BetFair is probably the best.

Monkeyinjapan

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KV and Monkey, I've been away for 10 weeks + and have been amazed at how hard it is to get back "INTO" things, but I'm sure that you are both onto where the profit lies. A question that I asked 3 months ago but have forgotten the answer is: where can I get "BEST OF 3 TOTES"? win "OR" place?

I beleive Sportingbet offer that service on Metro races, they offer the best of 3 TOTES +5% unless it has changed since .

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Cheers.

PP,
Sportingbet dropped their 5c bonus a few months back and I believe only pay maxidiv on Metro races now.
I find Centre racing pay maxidiv on the widest range of meetings for win bets.
Dialabet pay maxidiv plus 5c on Metro races for the win (and best of two totes for provincial). Dialabet also pay best tote on place. As far as I can understand their little book of rules they pay best tote PLACE on Metro and provincial but I haven't tested that out.

KV

KV thanks for that it looks like Dialabet then , as I am particularly interested in best tote for the place, do you have their details please?

As far as I know (ain't that far) the best way yo score a goal on place betting is to use NSW,VIC & QLD Tabs and also IAS. Very clumsy but the only way. If you're chasing best place price of the three states I don't think it would ever happen cause they'd go broke.

On a different note (on a different forum) I read Yuckman has beaten us all. Rest in peace. We'll all see him later.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

TwoBets, are you suggesting splitting the stake across all totes? IAS pays Unitab anyway so no need to use them.

I do actually place half of my bet with Sportsbet @ best of NSW & Supertab, and the other half with Unitab, this gets me close to what I'm after, but I'm sure some outfit gives best of 3 totes, I mean they can do it for the win can't they (maxi-divi)

An alternative is I suppose to opt for fixed price but that pretty well ties you up sat in front of the comp all day!!

KV, hope you felt better after you concluded your "other" obligations!!!! hee hee!
PS Re: longshots, nope don't back em anymore with Sportingbet, get the full price elsewhere!

"The only general trend I seem to notice is that real short favorites on the Tab, like 1.40 to 1.80 ish seem to lengthen in the last few minutes and favorites about the 2.50 upwards seem to shorten. I'm guessing the mass of favorite backers plonk on the favorite if it's long enough and don't bother if it's too short."

I think you may be right about the longer priced faves shortening the most at the last minute..possibly also helped along by bookies having a dip at what looks to be good value and good laying off. I doubt that anyone can be near 100% accurate in securing the best odds about a short priced fave..unless he has a special arrangement with a bookmaker..as some horse owners and big punters purportedly do.. I am not in that league these days so I cannot vouch for that.

Im new to the forum and now living in New Zealand. A lot has changed in Australian betting since I left in 1992...Mark Read was just a rails bookmaker and the likes of Iasbet etc were just dreams.

New Zealand racing... I just cant get into it at all and I,ve stayed away from horse racing up until about a year ago. I now concentrate on melb Syd and Brisbane mainly, with Syd still remaining my most profitable and most enjoyable. I was pleased to hear the familiar tones of Ian Craig...

I walked away from punting when I left OZ because I relied upon attending the metro tracks and using the best of tote or "the ring" in order to get the most profitability. I also used the services of three ratings services there which formed the basis of my selections. All I did was apply some rules to those ratings to come up with my selections for the day.

The Internet means that I can now re enter the fray and reside in new Zealand. heck, , I can even get to view many of the Aust races live on my t.v at home..and with tote fluctuations, and the likes of IASbet etc, I have it better than i did when I lived in Australia. What i would like to do now is tap into OZ Sky or whatever channel provides the best live racing coverage. Anyone got any tips? I understand that tv coverage may be in limbo in oz at the moment...is there a sattelite channel doing it bests? I would really like to know.

I am particulary enjoying reading the posts here on this forum and the various opinions. What I have discovered is that the methods I used ten to 15 yrs ago, still hold up today. I only back horses that are 8-1 or longer in the home state tab win pool at the 10k win pool mark... however they first have to be top 3 rated by a ratings agency, and there are couple of other factors of elimination, applied to that top 3.

When a horse qualifies as bet, it may also qualify under 4 other selection processes that are applied to it. I bet level stakes, but as a result of having a portfolio of fine tuning plans, one horse can be backed for 6 units on level stakes., if it comes up in each refinement. If there is more than one qualifier in a race..no bet.


The raw plan has a poorer strike rate but supplies turnover and sometimes selects winning horses that dont qualify in the other more refined selection methods that are applied to the same horse. It is one thing to have a very high strike rate of winners at healthy prices, but if the plan only provides three bets in a year, there is not much actual revenue to be made, whereas a plan with many bets and a lower percentage of p.o.t will provide more revenue. So, I have both going around for me...

If I had twenty years results of the 3 bets per year plan to go by, I could bet with more confidence, but I just dont have enough of those bets to truly know what the winning strike rate actually is...and probably never will have.

All i know is that the flip of a coin for heads (1/1) has a theoritcal mathematical run of outs of 10. If that doesn't scare you, it gets much worse as the percentages lengthen... I've seen and won handsomely on 7 consecutive heads..and others could probably attest to even longer runs than that.


I used to have a chart of these mathematical runs of outs and I've lost it along with many of my records of earlier days...figured about two years ago that Id never ever need them again. It was handy to have vbeacsue it gace you some idea of what to expect. It meant for me that when I was experiencing a drought that this was normal and to keep going..remember I was on level stakes..

My first year of punting used $5 units. The second year, $10, third, $20, 4th $50, 5th $100, 6th 200. It was all self funding and working fine right up until I left Australia.


I have been using the ratings as usually supplied free on TAB.com.au . Previously, when I was living in australia I used at least three ratings services and ran the same plans individually for each service. They all provided level stakes value, but over the years the average price did shorten, esp in Melbourne.. Interestingly, when horses came up as a selection in two or three of the ratings services, they often did not win, whereas a selection from only one service , and not rated by the other services would duly lob. I dont have a rational explanation for this...

However, rationalism aside, if a selection today that qualifies under my plans is not mentioned in the top 4 selections as published on nswtab.com.au (eg ian Craig for sydney, greg miles for melb etc) I back an extra unit on it as a "non rated" selection. It is amazing how often these "non rated " selections win and at great odds. A recent one was "trick on track" at 25-1. ..top rated too. You could argue that there were some hard luck stories in that particular race, but the fact is it won and the others didnt. Incidentally that horse came up in all six refinements that I use for the ratings and copped the maximum bet of 6 units from me. It proved to me that 25-1 shots are still achievable today. (the biggest privce selection I had back in my punting days was 70-1 and a horse called Aqualone, which beat Lets get Physical and survived a protest at Moonee Valley. I was one of the few happy punters that day and I subsequently learned that the owners of that horse didnt back it)

(the late?) Bill Johnson who had a plan called the "Harry Bob" plan. An interesting chap with a penchant for longshots and a firm belief not to back anything under 4-1. he didnt seem to worry too much about wet track ability either. Bill would compare a couple of different ratings selections and if a horse was rated by one and not by the the other, it became a selection.

I get worried if a horse comes up as a selection by using several differnet selection methods and tipped by several tipsters.. be tipped as the late mail etc..So often they lose.. Common sense would suggest that these selections have a higher chance of winning...I find that often when many selection methods come up with what looks to be a sure bet, it isnt one....

Sure things have changed, and some things remain the same...

The main thing in all this is that are many ways to make money on horse racing and it is simply of sleceting something that is suited to your discipline and tastes. ..the latter not nearly as important as discipline. I am living proof also that one does not need to be an expert on racing form analysis etc in order to profit. I have always relied upon ratings experts to do that job, leaving me to live a normal life most of the week and just use selection fine tuning methods in order to come up with some bets...

All the very best to you
Steve