Well it looks like the "Curse of the Propun Forum" has hit Bert. Result for the day was very disappointing with a loss of $1150

For those who did not get the trial today I have listed all the selections below along with the bet amount as specified by the spreadsheet, dividend (UNITAB as this is the one that Bert quotes on his website) and running total. The rules of the system say only bet if selection is over $4.00 so I have listed the Unitab approximate for each selection - this price was taken from the Sky TV coverage (if under $10 on meetings with SKY) or from the Internet on early Belmont races or where price was over $10 (to get accurate price). The price was from as close to the jump as possible whilst still allowing time to bet on Unitab. The bet amount is taken from the spreadsheet (rounding up as per the rules) and my "target" for the day was a $5 profit (assuming a bank of $1000). If div approx was less than $4 at jump then no bet (but I have still listed the selections and any divs). Betting was win-only so I have not listed any place divs (weren't that many anyway).

Race	Sel($ )	Bet	Div	Total
SR1	3 ( 5.9)	2	0.0	-2
MR1	6 (18.1)	1	0.0	-3
BR1	1 ( 1.7)	0	1.7	-3
AR1	2 ( 1.3)	0	0.0	-3
SR2	6 (13.2)	1	0.0	-4
MR2	4 ( 3.7)	0	3.2	-4
BR2	2 ( 7.9)	2	0.0	-6
BR2	11 ( scr)	**	**	**
AR2	2 ( 1.4)	0	0.0	-6
AR2	5 ( 6.9)	2	0.0	-8
SR3	8 (18.4)	1	0.0	-9
MR3	19 (14.5)	2	0.0	-11
BR3	1 ( 7.6)	3	0.0	-14
BR3	3 ( 6.7)	4	0.0	-18
AR3	2 ( 4.2)	8	0.0	-26
SR4	1 ( 4.4)	10	0.0	-36
MR4	No Selection	**	**	**
BR4	2 ( 5.3)	10	0.0	-46
AR4	3 ( 4.0)	0	0.0	-46
AR4	5 ( 3.1)	0	0.0	-46
PR1	4 ( 6.6)	10	0.0	-56
SR5	5 (13.5)	5	0.0	-61
MR5	6*( 4.2)	21	0.0	-82
BR5	2 (15.8)	6	0.0	-88
AR5	5*( 4.7)	26	0.0	-114
PR2	11 ( scr)	**	**	**
SR6	5 ( 8.1)	17	0.0	-131
MR6	2 ( scr)	**	**	**
BR6	3*( scr)	**	**	**
AR6	3 ( 5.2)	33	0.0	-164
PR3	1 ( 3.7)	0	4.2	-164
SR7	1 (24.8)	8	0.0	-172
MR7	2*(11.7)	17	0.0	-189
BR7	3 (12.4)	18	0.0	-207
AR7	1 ( 3.5)	0	0.0	-207
AR7	7 ( 6.7)	38	0.0	-245
PR4	1*( 3.5)	0	0.0	-245
PR4	4 ( 5.7)	54	0.0	-299
SR8	2*(10.4)	33	0.0	-332
SR8	4 ( 3.4)	0	3.5	-332
MR8	2*( 6.7)	60	0.0	-392
MR8	6 ( 3.9)	0	0.0	-392
BR8	1*( 2.5)	0	2.4	-392
AR8	3 ( 3.1)	0	2.9	-392
PR5	5 ( 4.5)	114	0.0	-506
PR6	2 ( 5.3)	119	0.0	-625
PR6	4 ( 4.5)	180	0.0	-805
PR7	4*( 5.5)	180	0.0	-985
PR8	2 ( 7.0)	165	0.0	-1150

* indicates a UBUTEE selection

As you can see the selections were pretty disappointing with only a few short-priced winners getting home (all ruled out by the $4 rule).

The only questionable call in the betting was with Belmont Race 3 - as there was no sky coverage of this race I was relying on the radio coverage and the internet odds to decide whether I would have placed a bet. At jump time the internet (UNITAB) was showing 3.70 so no bet under the rules of the system (it was slightly over $4 on NSW but as I was simulating betting with Unitab that did not apply).

I think this demonstrates the great danger in a "target" betting system (or a loss-chasing staking system) as the bet size and loss you make starts to escalate rapidly if you do have an extended run of outs like Bert had today.

Certainly on today's results the selections do not look like they are worth the price being charged and the system itself (ie. target betting) can easily be applied to your own selections if you really wanted to but I would only do it if your selections make a profit at level stakes. I think Bert has just been lucky to not hit a run like this previously (actually looking at his results he did have a wipeout on his grey/trots last month and there was also another day when the last bet of the day saved him from another big wipeout).



[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:29 ]

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:30 ]

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:31 ]

Thanks for posting that information becareful. It's pretty much as I suspected. Whilst I am open to new ideas and even staking plans, some things always remain unchanged. Logical mathematics will always prevail in the end and no matter how much someone argues that their system is different, if it doesn't win at level stakes, it won't win by staking.

Bert tried to tell me I was wrong, and that just doesn't make sense. There are much smarter mathematicians than myself with University Degrees who know this to be true.

"Not one losing day since September 2001."

I have been in this game long enough to spot illogical and improbable claims from afar.

As far as having cracked the trainers methods etc...I think this speaks for itself.

I'll stick to my system which shows a level stakes profit.

becareful, had you employed this system with a $1,000 bank, chasing a $5.00 profit - you would have lost your $1,000.00.

Risking $1000.00 to win $5.00 is simply illogical. There is no way you can win in the end. It's like backing an odds on favourite. You'd be better putting the $1,000 on a favourite showing $1.05 the win, that way you at least win $50.00.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-10 19:20 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-10 19:26 ]

I forgive you for getting the wrong figures because it's only your first day .
I have no idea how you made today a loss of that much.
We all won , Yes I agree we had a bad day , we only got one winner at $4 or better in all states , I just checked that with my customers, so I think you should perhaps download the spreadsheet again and see where you went wrong.

I have now added the results to it.

regards Bert

lambarsua,

I haven't checked his results but it seems his students decided the $3.70 Unitab bet was OK because it was above $4 on NSW Tab. It was certainly a marginal call (and on his site he advises not placing a bet if you have doubts that it will meet the $4 cutoff) so depending on which way you went you either finished $10 up or $1000 down. I think I will leave this system for others - I prefer my "old thinking" system that shows a good profit on level stakes - it may not win every day but at least I don't need 100 good days to make up for 1 bad day!

ANOTHER POINT
I have already posted, Your way of betting does not work on my selections.

regards Bert

Is Bert arguing that you increase the size of your bets until you find a winner then stop?

Risking $1000 to win $5 is not worthwile.

A whole days effort for $5 or $10 - what a waste of time!!!!

How gracious of you to forgive me! Lucky I wasn't betting with real money! My results are here for all to see so maybe you can tell me where I went wrong. As far as I can see the only difference was that I decided a $3.70 approx on UNITAB did not meet the $4 minimum and therefore I did not place that bet - I know it ended up over $4 but at 20 seconds before the jump it was showing $3.70 and that is when I made the decision. Surely you can see that the decision not to bet (based on the advice on your website not to bet if in doubt about the div being over $4) was a reasonable decision. Basically from then on it was all downhill and the increasing bet size through loss chasing savaged the bank.

As I have said many times previously on this forum I have no problem with others betting how it suits them - it is just this plan is not for me - the difference between a small win and a huge loss is just too fine. Any system where the potential loss is 100 times worse than your daily target is just too scary for me. Also to make the type of money I can get out of my system would require a truly enormous bank and probably placing bets with 20 different bookies.

Bert,
I followed your system EXACTLY (as I understood it, anyway) with the only difference being the decision on the $3.70 starter. It seems your selections do not work on your system!

One further point on this system...

Bert says he is extending it to cover Greyhounds. Well unless you are getting fixed odds or betting on track, there is no possible way to make it work. The pools are so small, that there is no way you can accurately predict the starting price on any TAB runner.

The spreadsheets for some reason include quinella(column X) and trifecta (columnY)and place bets, with SP prices etc.
This is very confusing when trying to work out the win only component.

I understand that you made that decision, but that was a definate bet at starting time as we (several students ) were all watching all 3 states prices on Austext , because as you said sky didn't show it.
Nsw was floating between $4 and $4.30
Vic was around $4.60
Unitab was $4 to $4.20, Unitab did go down to $3.70 , but was back up when we placed our bets.
And we all got on .
Sure we had a bad day , but how did you get to $1150
Our records here show $277 with a profit of $21.20 7.7%
if you think that is peanuts, try and get the bank to pay that.

I have uploaded the finished spreadsheet so you can see where you may have gone wrong.

I just received a call from WA and the price there was $4.40 and he collected.

As a Beginner of one day , it is easy to make a mistake, You may not see it , but I know that $1150 loss is one of them.

regards Bert