None of the favourites drew well except Railings. Here it is:

makybe diva 14
vinnie roe 24
greys inn 13
distinction 21
railings 5
xcellent 17
dizelle 18
franklins gardens10
eye popper 9
portland singa 1
vouvray 15
demerger 4
lachlan river 3
bazelle 22
kindjahl 12
hugs dancer 7
leica falcon 20
umbula 8
on a jeune 11
rizon 16
strasbourg 6
envoy 2
kamsky 23
mr celebrity 19

Here's the field:

7-3.00 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP 3200 M
1st $3000000, 2nd $750000, 3rd $375000, 4th $200000, 5th $125000, 6th $110000, 7th $110000, 8th $110000, 9th $110000, 10th $110000.

1 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 14 58
2 VINNIE ROE (IRE) Dermot K Weld P Smullen 24 58
3 DISTINCTION (IRE) Michael Stoute M Kinane 21 56.5
4 GREYS INN (USA) Mike De Kock W Marwing 13 56.5
5 FRANKLINS GARDENS (GB) Mark Tompkins Darryll Holland 10 54.5
6 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu S Fujita 9 54
7 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 5 54
8 XCELLENT (NZ) Michael Moroney M T Coleman 17 54
9 KINDJHAL (FR) David Hayes D Dunn 12 52.5
10 HUGS DANCER (FR) David Hayes N Ryan 7 52
11 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien B Shinn (a) 4 51.5
12 DIZELLE John Hawkes D Beadman 18 51.5
13 LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey G Colless 3 51.5
14 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney L Cassidy 1 51.5
15 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody S Seamer 15 51.5
16 ON A JEUNE Peter Montgomerie D Gauci 11 51
17 UMBULA Mick Price S Baster 8 51 1.5
18 BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins R McLeod 22 50.5
19 ENVOY (NZ) Ken Kelso P Mertens 2 50.5
20 RIZON Cliff Brown J Ford 16 50.5
21 STRASBOURG Bart Cummings L Nolen 6 50.5
22 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer K McEvoy 20 50
23 MR CELEBRITY (NZ) Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 19 49.5
24 KAMSKY Bart Cummings C Williams 23 48.5

What is Franklins Gardens doing in there???

Thats fine for Makybe.....Leica Falcon, Dizelle and railings will all get back so no real damage done there. Eye Popper has a nice draw and should go close.
There are only 8 horses that can win in my opinion:
Makybe Diva
Leica Falcon
Railings
Dizelle
Eye Popper
Mr Celebrity
Vinnie Roe
Demerger
Portland Singa
Grey's Inn

Basically rule out the rest

That's 10, not 8.

i don't know how i came up with that

David Hayes would be pretty angry if Franklins Gardens pulls out and Confectioner misses out on a place. I don't think Confectioner deserves to be there though. I though Bazelle might have been a good light weight chance although barrier 22 wil be tough.

I think you have to include Hugs Dancer in your calculations if the track is wet. Ran fifith last year after being 17th at the 400m mark and drops 0.5kg. David Hayes has kept a quiet preparation for him and he has barrier seven with Nick Ryan on board, who placed third on Zazzman last year.