Anyone,

I have recently started looking at some dutch book type of betting systems where you take 2-4 horses in a race depending on size.

I am sure there are people out there who have been/are using this type of betting successfully.

Does anyone have any good suggestions regarding this form of betting ?

Essentially the way I am doing it at the moment is doing the form on a race and working out which races have only 2-4 horses with a good chance. I then stake these accordingly to win.

What percentage of the field should I dutch ? For example its no good betting on 4 horses in a 6 horse race as you can't dutch it very well. If anyone has any suggestions it would be appreciated. At the moment I am using approx 15-30% of the field. For example 1-2 horses up to 7 horse fields, 2-3 for 8-10 horse fields and 3-4 in anything greater than 10 horses.

Thanks

I would recommend only dutching horses that are value. The more horses you take, the less value you are getting across the board increasing your chance of losing in the long run.
Also I would suggest taking a % of the market as opposed to number of runners.
Taking 3 horses when 1 is showing $1.2 is completely different to taking 3 horses all showing $10.

BJ,

What do you mean by percentage of market ? I assume you means the chance of it winning according to the odds ?

Thanks

Basically.
The example I gave was
3 $10 horses (representing 30% of the market)
versus
a $1.2 horse and 2 others. ($1.2 represents about 85% of the market.) Add 2 $10 horses onto that and you are betting your 3 horses, but betting into a 105% market already. Guaranteed to lose.

A tab market is ~117%. Say there is 10 horses. You can take the first 8 horses in betting.
You have bet on 80% of the field.
But
Chances are you have bet to about 110% market.

I basically always convert prices to chances of winning. On average, this works fine. Although obviously you have individual horses being well over/under rated.

Hi, I am a place bettor and don't do dutching, but here is what I do, and it works excedingly well, it may work for you too instead of dutching.
I select the horse paying the highest place divi above or = $2.00 from my first four selections. That's it. I could go for the win also but I am more comfortable with place (I put a few bucks on for win as well but not in a true each way fashion).
If you are worried about a short priced fav., Don't! Just look at Canberra race one and two today. both winners were only my second selections and actually won despite the short fav. It happens often enough I can assure you.
I think by dutching you always finish up with short odds.
I'm sure the devotees of dutching will disagree.
Good luck!

Hi Marcus,

I've been meaning to check this out using my selections since you wrote it (only taken just over a year to get round to it) and it's showing some promise. Are you still doing it? Is it working still? Are you watching a screen up to jump time or how do you decide which horse to bet on. Did you try any other similar things before you settled on this.

I've just checked betting on my first two selections if they are over $2 for the place (mainly because I remembered the details of what you were doing wrongly) and it works quite well like that (about 5% profit).

KV

Hi KV!
Sure I do. Done it for years and it works fine.
Actually I concentrate mostly on the second and maybe on my third selection.
If none of the first three qualify,(ie.<$2.00), and the fourth is not too far down in my ratings, AND pays well, then I bet on that.
Of course the first selection has a better SR. just as it should, but I find the sec. returns more for a slightly lower SR.
I find the $2.00 or more return, very satisfying, it covers the next bet in full, if I want a next bet. Sometimes I get annoyed that I don't bet because it is below my odds, and it comes in paying $1.60, but I know from my analysis that I am far better off, leaving them alone.
Also the last few months I have followed Kenchar's hint, and watch the NZ races on Saturdays, looking for anomalies between the win and place prices.
The results are amazing, strange, that the same thing never happens in local races.
One thing though, I preselect horses to rate, that are not going to be popular picks, but have a solid chance of placing or winning.
Most days I just put in a small bet on the sec. selection because of work, but if I have a chance yes, I watch the odds couple min. before the jump, in the TAB, can't do it at home, get distracted and miss the race, and also I find that in the long run the prices you get on the different TABs even out, maybe with the bookies it would be different, but I'm doing OK so why increase the workload?
PS. Most important!!! I am not a gambler, I do it solely for the money and if I am up a certain amount, I want to win, I stop, also if I can see the day is not panning out right , I STOP! I am sure you know the feeling yourself, that some days are just losing days, so why persevere? There is always an other day tomorrow!
Good luck

been dutching for sometime & made not too bad a fist of it, however as with any methods it always comes back to your selection method(s), if they hold up all is sweet.

you may want to consider setting a minumum price about your shortest nag, say 3/1, which should assist in you never having to bet into an odds on situation.

maybe also consider a reversal of the standard way of doing things by having the larger share of your total bet on the longer priced nag(s) & less on the shorties.

Try the following which should be of some assistance:

http://twonix.com/index.php?option=...id=28&Itemid=44

Try the win bet. If 2 of value back both. dutch betting has an inbuilt problem with odds to win ratio [averages on your wins] in the real world of punting. It's theory sound wonderful, but isn't. Bit like trying to win on odds-on selections, which often your total dutch bet is [odds-on].