I was looking at each of the boxes and I noticed that box 1 at the Meadows over 600m has a strike rate of 20.6% which by my reckonning should win 1 every 5 starts if I understand correcyly.

Anyone have any thoughts.


Mad Gambler

MG,

You will find that Box 1 has a good strike rate at most distances on most tracks.

Unfortunately this information is well known and therefore is allowed for in the market. You will find dogs out of box 1 will be generally overbet and thus underpriced.

Box Position Bias is one of the most powerful studies you can undertake not only for greyhounds but in racing in general.
Box position correction isn't as straight-forward as a lot of people think. Let me show you a little table to illustrate. These are actual numbers from a track, for three months to October, 2005.

For each post position, I'll give win percentage, average WINNING time, and average RUNNING time for the month:

PP/Win%/WTime/RTime
B1/11.46/30.685/31.653
B2/10.88/30.671/31.156
B3/15.97/30.701/31.143
B4/11.15/30.650/31.219
B5/19.93/30.673/31.147
B6/10.73/30.616/31.171
B7/10.92/30.660/31.163
B8/12.33/30.748/31.148

You can see that Box 5 had a huge advantage, giving almost 20% wins. Box 6 was worst, with 10.73% wins.

But look at average winning time. The best average winning time was from Box 6, the worst box, as one might expect. The slowest average winning time, though, was from Box 8, an average box.

On overall average time, the best time box was box 3, and the slowest box was box 4!

Thus the question is how would one actually go about measuring the box bias in the first place, and how you are mapping that information into an algorithm to change your handicapping method.

The next table is based on Grade for the same track but over 12 months.
Box/TopGrade/Maiden
B1/19.51/09.38
B2/10.26/14.11
B3/17.07/12.50
B4/05.00/09.82
B5/12.20/21.34
B6/10.00/07.32
B7/17.50/11.11
B8/09.76/17.18

Box Position bias isn't the same across all grades. Think about it for a minute. Top Grade races aren't the same as Maidens, Top Grade races tend to have a wider "spread" of talent than Maidens, because of the "stars" in the top grade. Give a star runner a box advantage and he'll rule the race. Give a pig a box advantage and he's still a pig, unable to take advantage of the box position.

Consider Maidens versus Top grade. Maiden runners don't know how to race. They don't know what to do to avoid trouble. They may barely be able to get around the corners. Top Grade runners have proven abilities and talents. Top Graders can take advantage of a bias, and Maidens might not be as capable.

How about collision probabilities? Do you think Top grade runners are involved in as many collisions as Maidens? I doubt it. So what is the effect? You would expect that the more collisions there are, the more equal the Box position stats would be. Collisions randomize things. Box Position bias is the opposite of randomization! That's why the best Top graders box starts 19.51% winners and the worst Top Graders box only has 5.00% winners. But in Maidens, the best box starts only 15.89% winners, while the worst box still scores 10.34% winners. So in Top Grader ratio of wins best/worst is 3.9/1 while the best/worst in Maidens is only 1.5/1.
And the best thing of all is ppl betting on greyhound racing hammer dogs based on Box Position based on all of the wrong reasons...

the above implications in racing are very similiar...

Good luck in your studies..

Thanks for the insight. It's very interesting as it gives me something to think about. Can you add anything else to aid my studies.


Mad Gambler.

Woof,


Very interesting look at box bias.

Had not considered there would be a difference between the Grades. Assumption was just the layout of the boxes gave some dogs an advantage, did not consider the dog may not take up this advantage.

Brad

woof43, excellent post.