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#1
19th December 2005, 09:25 AM
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Food for thought
I am wondering what makes people accept 7 % or 10 % as a POT target as being achievable and reject 50 % or 75 % or 100 % ?. I already have methods over years that are returning 33 % - Bet $ 69,800 got back $ 96,200.79 and highest dividend $ 8.00 ie no skewed wonder winner in that.
As far as I am concerned 50 % is easily possible, probable and in time will be achievable. It would be very surprizing if there are not people much smarter than me doing a great deal better. _________________ The above taken from a post on another forum. Just something to think about for those that reckon it's tough making a profit on the punt. 
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#2
19th December 2005, 09:42 AM
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I've seen that and wholeheartedly concur with the many detractors.
Earlier I alerted all to a graphic Kelly Simulator. That showed traumatic volatility over its limit of ~450 runs. The 650 runs mentioned, even though over 5 years are clearly contrived, or fallaciously backfitted if you prefer. Extend that sample 10-fold and the percolating POT will evaporate.
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#3
19th December 2005, 09:20 PM
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Quote:
Well, that caused a stir!
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