Trialling and amended speed system....

Ascot R2 3 Shake Your Bon Bon

This is the standout bet of the day and should be bet eachway.

Now watch the hoodoo see it run poorly

TABFORM has her rated at $3.80 in an open market.

UNITAB have her rated 100

She has placed over 50% at the distance, and 50% at the track.

She has the best jockey in the race.

Cyberhorse have her rated a smidgeon behind Annatazia

She's rock hard fit.

She's stepping up in grade but last time she contested this grade was only beaten 0.5L in a very slick last sectional which was taken out by Lust For Dust who has turned out to be a first up specialist.
She was beaten in a blanket finish by two other horses on that occasion Covertly and Star Tudor

She's right up there in the overall ratings and is clearly top rated on her last start.

I rate her as even money, anything over that will be a gift!

This means she has a 50% chance of winning and a 75% chance of placing - whatever happens, you'll get a damn good run for your money if she's value.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 417,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi CP!
I hope you are right, I am not betting WA races so it doesn't matter to me, but I can't see her beating Silver Seam.

Iomaca,

True Silver Seam is clearly a danger and ran a faster sectional to win last start.

The queries with Silver seam as I see it are:

J Whiting is a far superior jockey.

Silver Seam is stepping up in grade and distance and has never even been placed in this grade, whereas Shake Your Bon Bon was only beaten 0.5L last time in this grade.

Silver Seam's last win was in a Class 6 and SYBB's win was in a RS3MW.

Silver Seam has not raced for 21 days as opposed to 7 days.

We know that SYBB is rock hard fit, and SS is fit, but we don't know how fit she is now. (What has happened between the last run and today).

SS will be fourth up from a spell, and I'd suggest that a 4 year old mare may have had enough, especially when asking for more from her.

Mind you there is a 1.5kg pull in the weights favouring SS.

SYBB has beaten much better quality opposition.

I've been wrong many times before, but the ledger has SYBB in front for mine.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 417,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

chrome, with only 6 starters this surely is not eachway bet?

Davez,

Depends on the place odds really, at $1.50 plus it still is a place bet.

Anything less is not value.

I've seen some pretty good place odds in really small fields, so it could fluctuate out to evens for the place depending on where the money goes.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 417,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Gday CP

Gotta agree on the place thing with you there.... I don't get the reluctance to bet the place in small fields ( I don't bet place at all) but to me it is logical that there are less runners in which there are 2 place divvies paid, so the odds increase in your favour...and that the pool is only divided by 2 instead of three so the divvies should be larger.... am I wrong on that?

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

Let's hope you get there CP. Only problem is that #2 (current fav Unitab) has come a long way for the race. Since it won't get to 20s (nothing will) then this is one time that betting shorties MAY succeed.

I was wrong

Apologies to anyone who followed the tip.

It doesn't matter what price they are, they still have to win or run second in a small field.

Well called to those who had Silver Seam on top.

Surely there must be something not right with Shake Your Bon Bon which was under punishment a long long way out from home.

A horse which had beaten better opposition, had a better jockey, was the fittest in the race and just beaten in this class by 0.5L gets beaten easily.

Horses defy even the best logic, don't they!

The plus side is that I learnt something about my ratings, which I didn't think about before, will give it a trial and post back soon to try and redeem myself

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 417,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Looking back over its form I notice its (SYBB) won a few times but only twice in a row on one occasion. Maybe that's something to look for.