From The Age:

Punters eye Sydney . . . for the wooden spoon
By Geoff McClure
February 1, 2006

SO DO the punters know something that we don't? It's a question well worth asking in the wake of what veteran bookmaker Gerard Daffy says he has never before seen the likes of — a surge of money for a reigning premier to win … the wooden spoon. "It's unprecedented, unheard of, in any code," Daffy told us yesterday as he tried to come to terms with the sudden punting about-turn on 2005's top AFL team, Sydney, so dramatic that it has seen more money invested on Paul Roos' boys to finish last in 2006 than them making it back-to-back flags. After opening at $6 for the double the Swans are now on the fourth line of betting at $9 (behind St Kilda, West Coast and Adelaide); all this while their odds about winning the spoon have slumped from $81, initially down to $67 and now to their current price of $51.

"We have had more bets on Carlton and Hawthorn winning the flag than we've had on Sydney," said Daffy. "The complete disinterest in the premiers to win again probably has something to do with punters reckoning they had a lot of luck in 2005 and may not have any this year. But it's not as if a lot of their players have gone. Sure, Jason Ball has retired but every club has lost the odd good player. It just doesn't make sense."

But the fascinating AFL off-season betting doesn't end there. In one of the biggest pre-season Brownlow plunges in league history, Western Bulldogs' 2003 top draft pick Adam Cooney has been backed in from opening odds of $126 to $31 and even at that quote Centrebet said yesterday it was continuing to see a lot of money for him, including one bet of $500 each way. Rival bookmaker TAB Sportsbet also reports that Cooney has been one of the three best-backed Brownlow chances (along with West Coast's Chris Judd and St Kilda's Justin Koschitzke) but obviously noting his eye-catching 2005 form (he polled 12 votes to be the second-best Bulldog behind Scott West) his opening 2006 Brownlow price with Sportsbet was just $31 and is now $21.

Oh, and by the way — good luck to those punters wanting to see the Swans fall from grace this season. Never in the league's history has a premiership team finished last the next year (the closest was Adelaide, which finished 13th in 1999 after winning in '98).

http://www.theage.com.au/news/geoff...8590498047.html

Weird. I don't know what those punters are thinking. I can see them possibly missing the finals, but not finishing last!!!

Im with you mate, dont even think they will miss finals, they are such an even team that injuries are less risky for them with exception of hall and goodes.


it was the style of footy and coaching that won them GF and not one or two outstanding players. I rate only geelong,sydney,st kilda and west coast as premiership contenders

Ha ha. I had a "for fun" $5 wager on the Swans for the wooden spoon at $81 when the book opened. I justified it with multipliction and fallacious reasoning:

5 x 81 = $400. $5 = not much. $400 = a lot. Therefore $5 into $400 = good investment.

At the same time I threw $10 on the Swans to win at $8, and more recently another $10 @ $9. I think I'll continue to have small wagers on them throughout the season.

I'm ignorant of AFL but the Swans are my team so any bet I have is normally a for fun wager on them.

Im dont think im being biased in saying that Adelaide are definately a genuine chance this year, with the gun midfield they have and the youngsters becoming more seasoned, it stands to reason they will be a better team this year. I think st kilda are the team to beat this year, with west coast and the bulldogs to make up the top four.

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