Horse A 48.5% place s.r
Horse B 42.5% place s.r
Horse C 37% place s.r
Horse D 33 % place s.r

If I were to take horses with those place strike rates in a box quinella, what would the expected strike rate of getting the quinella be?? assuming an average 10 horse race.

At a guess I would assume around 35 % but it may be lower than that.

Hi Doc.,

You would have to know the place SR of the other 6 horses in the race before you can work out the answer.

And to clarify that the place strike rate was for placing first or second only..... obviously disregarding third placings - Maybe some bright spark could do an Any2 probability for the Doc....

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Stix, the strike rates are for 1st 2nd and 3rds. They are not strike rates for individual horses as such but are for horses that fit a certain criteria. I would have assumed that horse A would finish in the top 2 about 2/3 of the time making it about a 36% chance of being in the quinella, and there would be a formula for working out the other combinations chances.

Doc,

....and the other 6 horses in the race all have 100% place S/Rates [extreme example]. What chance then for A,B,C,D ? You must work out the win% chance for these 4 hourses to work out the probability for the quin. scenario you mention, otherwise your stuffed and guessing. Place SR is useless mathamaticaly for 4 [only] horses in a 10 horse race.

And if you knew all those percentages would it be any sort of guide. Look at the Doust system thread and we have Darky giving us results on horses with a 30% strike rate. They apparantly win 16% of the time. Strike rate not much of an indication there methinks.

KV

Dr. Ron, It is not so easy to work out the chances of a horse to run in the Quinella in the manner you described. Using place strike-outs mean virtually zip in this way, e.g. the horse with the lowest place strike-rate could be a Group 1 performer, while the horse with the highest place strike-rate could still be running around in restricted races.

Better still is to work out the chances based on price - a far better indicator.

Hi La Mer, the 4 horses are actually the top 4 horses in ranked order of my selection system that I am experimenting with. The top ranked runs a place 48.5 % of the time and so on. The point regARDING THE CLASS THEY RUN IN DOSENT REALLY HAVE AN EFFECT AS the results come from horses running in similar classes. Thanks for the replies anyway gents, as I will continue my trek towards the Holy Grail.